Washington Post: 6 GOP Senators Who May Not Seek Re-Election in 08

[CorpGovActivist]

"Gut Check": http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/20/AR2007012001402.html

Among the "leaning toward retirement" crowd contemplating joining Colorado Senator Wayne Allard in a "no go" decision: Senator John Warner here in Virginia.

Warner, reportedly still reeling from the loss that George Allen sustained, and stung that his investment of personal prestige (the ads he ran for/with Allen) didn't seem to carry much weight with Virginians, turns 80 next month.

If former Governor Mark Warner can be persuaded to jump in (he bowed out of the Presidential race), Senator Warner may decide to forego an Allenesque defeat.

If so, Republicans have nobody here in VA who can beat Mark Warner.

The other 5 GOP "might retires" mentioned:

1. Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska.

2. Senator Pete Domenici of New Mexico.

3. Senator Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina.

4. Senator Thad Cochran of Mississippi.

5. Senator Larry Craig of Idaho.

Anybody from those states have local insights? New Mexico jumps out at me: maybe Bill Richardson is merely raising his national profile with his announced bid for the nomination, to attract funding for his real objective in '08 - the Senate?

- Dave

[thatsrightimirish]

1. Hmm

I don't think Richardson would run for the Senate, he just ran for Governor. Elizabeth Dole was humiliated last cycle and I wouldn't be surprised if she retired. If Thad Cochran doesn't run the AG in Mississippi is very popular I hear and that could be a pick up. And then there's Chuck Haglel. Given his recent outburst on the GOP http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/01/21/ftn/main2381341.shtml he might not run and someone like Scott Kleeb could take the seat.

[CorpGovActivist]

22. Interesting ... Thanks!

1. New Mexico/Bill Richardson: By 2008, he'd be halfway through his second term as Governor. I think he'd jump to the Senate, especially if he were guaranteed a spot on Foreign Relations.

2. North Carolina/Liddy Dole: The WP says: "The former Senate Republican chair had a miserable 2006, but her colleagues believe she will tough it out to reinstate her icon status." NC Governor Mike Easley will be term limited out by 2008, so I'm guessing he's the candidate. If Liddy stays in, I suggest he show that clip of her desperately trying to control that Meet the Press segment right before the mid-terms.

3. Mississippi/Thad Cochran: The former Mississippi AG, Mike Moore, would certainly have the $$$ at his disposal, given his private sector pursuit of Big Tobacco, following his critical role in breaking those cases wide open as AG: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Moore_%28Mississippi_politician%29 (The producers of The Insider might even re-release the film, with special new "bonus features" that include interviews with the real life Mike Moore, as a stealth way of generating renewed national interest in him, and to goose contributions to his campaign.)

4. Nebraska/Chuck Hagel: The WP says: "One of President Bush's strongest GOP war critics, he has never come across as an enthusiastic senator - and he still has an eye on the White House in '08." Since Kleeb warranted a last-minute panic swing by the President in '06, you may be right about his chances: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Kleeb

5. Idaho/Larry Craig: I noticed you took no stab at this. Small wonder. The WP writes: "Another regular on the retirement rumor mill, but Democrats aren't paying much attention, because Idaho is Republican country." Isn't that what they once said about Montana? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_montana_senate_race

- Dave

[MidwestTransplant]

2. I would be surprised if Richardson would trade Governor for Senate

unless there are term limits in NM. Also I could see it on the slim chance that he have an opportunity to deal with foreign policy issues but he could also get that as a cabinet sec. in a Dem. administration.

[CorpGovActivist]

23. State Term Limits List

New Mexico appears to be among those states that impose term limits: http://www.ustl.org/Current_Info/State_TL/gubernatorial.html

- Dave

[Hippo_Tron]

3. Mississippi - if Cochran retires and former AG Mike Moore runs it'll be competative

This is assuming Moore doesn't enter the 2007 Governor's race. As far as North Carolina goes, Mike Easley's term expires in '08 and he's term limited. Perhaps he'd be interested in running for the Senate.

[Straight Shooter]

4. Oh please oh please make Pete Domenici go away. n/t

I will never forget the sight of that arrogant prick trying to shout down my Senator. :grr:

"Washington - Oregon Democrat Ron Wyden seized control of the Senate floor for more than four hours Thursday in an attempt to reduce subsidies to oil companies. Enraging Republican leaders, his filibuster stalled debate on an emergency appropriations bill.

Wyden held the floor for about four hours, talking about his amendment or yielding to questions from colleagues. Shortly after 3 p.m., one of them lost his cool.

Sen. Pete Domenici, R-NM, challenged Wyden's assertion he could save taxpayers billions of dollars. Citing a Congressional Budget Office report, Domenici said Wyden's offering would have no effect, mocking it as "this great amendment."

"It's going to yield zero because the amendment is meaningless the way it's drawn," Domenici roared, his face reddening and his voice cracking."

http://www.truthout.org/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/59/19432/printer

[burrowowl]

8. He has alzheimers

and Heather is being groomed to take his place.

[David in Canada]

9. Domenici...

I think Domenici, despite protestations to the contrary, is a prime retirement choice in 2008.

He's getting up in years and I've heard that he might have some major health issues.

I'd also add Ted Stevens as a potential retiree. He's well into his 80's and if it looks to him as if getting back the majority is a long-shot, he might opt to retire.

[CorpGovActivist]

24. WP on Domenici...

"The official word is that he's running, but two years is a long time for a 74-year-old who has health problems and appears increasingly frail. The Betting: Lean retires."

- Dave

[CorpGovActivist]

25. Stevens - At Best, a 50/50, I Think

Stevens and Byrd have a bit of a friendly competition going to see who will outlast the other on Appropriations.

Byrd turns 90 this year, and was 89 when he stood for re-election in 06: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Byrd

By comparison, Stevens would be a spry 84 if/when he hits the campaign trail in 08.

Besides, I think there's an unspoken agreement that line items are snuck in for each to receive bionic implants, as a "mutual courtesy" on Appropriations.

; )

- Dave

[IWantAChange]

38. Always a chance Stevens could get lost in the maze of internet tubes.

[TygrBright]

5. Richardson doesn't want a Senate seat...

...if he can't get the Prexy nod he'll go for Veeper, is my bet. Senate might be a consolation prize, since NM has term limits for the Goob, but my guess is he'd rather go into a major Cabinet slot in the next Dem Admin. State, for preference, but no reason he wouldn't take his old job as UN Ambassador back. Senate is too dull for our Goob, he's a doer and a fixer, not really a legislator.

Domenici has already indicated he's likely to cash it in (literally, no doubt,) so we'd better look around for a moderate GOPpie to replace him. VERY doubtful that a Dem could take that seat, NM is purple but that's partly because it looks (to me, anyway) like NMs are more libertarian than anything else, and if they can't get gummint off their backs any other way, they'll split the power and set the parties to wrangling with each other in the hopes that nothing will ever get done.

NMs like it when nothing gets done. Trust me on that one.

helpfully,
Bright

[CorpGovActivist]

26. The Disloyalty Factor: Richardson's Cabinet Prospects in Clinton III?

I can't help but wonder whether the hardcore Clinton inner circle views Richardson's entry as an act of disloyalty.

Maybe not, but if so, I think his best bet - given term limits in place - may be to go back to the well of support there in NM, and seek the Senate seat. If Richardson survives to the primaries/debates, you can bet the GOP strategists are salivating at the prospect of running ads that say, "Even one of President Clinton's former Cabinet Secretaries disagrees with Hillary on {fill in the blanks}..."

- Dave

[MADem]

30. Interesting theory, that, and certainly possible.

Then again, if we really want to get Machiavellian, it could be the entry was done in concert! And BR is already running for VP!

We'll see how much courtesy they offer each other during the debates...it could be they've each decided to sew up specific constituencies, and then converge on a mega-ticket!

Long shot, certainly, but anything is possible in politics. Alternatively, that might not be The Plan, but that might be how it works out...

[CorpGovActivist]

32. Reporters to Richardson: Does Your Entry Signal Distrust of Hillary?

The question is coming; the answer will be very telling.

- Dave

[MADem]

34. He'd NEVER, ever say yes, even if it were remotely possible that he despised her.

Politics 101 says you take a question like that and make it about yourself. "I'm running because I care about this great nation, I have ideas about how we can make progress and improve the lives of ordinary Americans and restore our reputation as a world leader, and I want to reach out to the American people to join me in this important effort....blah, blah, blah."

There is no way a seasoned politician would ever answer that question, ever. If pressed, the proper answer is something along the lines of "Senator Clinton is a fine American and a friend. I look forward to seeing her at the debates...."

To answer a question indicating "distrust" is a kiss of death .... for Richardson. He's not stupid at all, he'd never do that.

[CorpGovActivist]

44. If I Understand You...

... you're saying that Governor Richardson is savvy enough to: http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=damn+with+faint+praise

; )

- Dave

[lpbk2713]

6. Mel Martinez ought to quit if he wants to be RNC Chairman.

He's short changing the people of Florida if he intends to wear both hats.

Link: http://www.sptimes.com/2007/01/19/Worldandnation/Mel_Martinez_talks_ab.shtml

[Divine Discontent]

10. good grief,

I forgot that martinez was dong this job along with his other "job" ya know the one he was elected to do! the lady he ran against would've been so much better, Betty Castor. martinez is a do nothing bush "yes man".



www.cafepress.com/warisprofitable <<-- antibush prodem stickers/shirts

[JeffR]

7. sigh... if only Chambliss and Isakson would retire

we Georgia voters and all of America would be better off...

[gratefultobelib]

36. Ditto for Kit Bond from Missouri! Total loser, but at least we now have Claire McCaskill!

[Divine Discontent]

11. ya know what...

I read my blog posted 3 months before the election, I NAILED the senate seat count, and was within a few of my feeling on the house. I feel the dems are going to gain about another 3-5 seats and 10-15 house races in 08, I am unsure of the presidency, until I see who we're running and who they pick, obviously, Joementum hurt us in 04, and at the time Edwards was a bit of an unknown when we really needed someone more experienced to go up against darth cheney. he'd do much better now, but it's a wait and see on the presidential opinions I have... right now I love Clark and Edwards.



www.cafepress.com/warisprofitable <<-- antibush prodem stickers/shirts

[NewJeffCT]

18. It would be great if we could pick up at least 3 in the Senate

Then we can tell Joementum to toe the party line or take a hike...

[williesgirl]

41. Don't give him a choice - oust him from all committees, etc

[madville]

27. I just hope

I just hope that a potential Hillary Clinton nomination doesn't hurt Democrats in House and Senate races. The (R) turnout will be strong and I know many Democrats who are not excited or very motivated to vote for H. Clinton. That is the only thing that could wipe out any of the gains we have made and prevent us from going farther.

[DirtyJersey]

40. My prediction

I think we'll pick up a couple more seats in the Senate. CO, NH, MN, and OR all look promising. NM, NC, and VA look promising with retirements. LA is the only place I'm concerned about defense.

[Tatiana]

12. I pray that Warner will run for the Senate seat in VA. He would be unbeatable.

That would be a really nice pick up. Schumer needs to be courting him.

[LynneSin]

17. You mean Mark Warner right

and not John Warner the current senator

I could see it now: Warner vs. Warner

[Tatiana]

33. Yes, I mean Mark. John makes me want to vomit. n/t

[DirtyJersey]

39. Not the first time...

It was Warner vs. Warner in 1996.

[CorpGovActivist]

28. Mark Warner's Organization...

... is still alive and well in Alexandria.

; )

He's either taking a good hard look at the Senate, or else he's campaigning for the Veepstakes. If the eventual nominee taps him for Veep, I think Virginia's 13 electoral votes flip, and West Virginia's 5 revert to the norm and return to the Dems. He would even have some sway in NC, TN, and KY - all media markets where he received a lot of favorable coverage for his work right across the state line.

- Dave

[underpants]

37. vs. who?

IF Mark ran I wonder who the Republicans would put up

Allen?
Gilmore? (this is assuming he isn't elected President... :rofl: )
Cantor?
Ollie North?

Forbes?
Goode?

:shrug:

[IronLionZion]

45. Mark, not John....in the biblical sense! nt

[Contrite]

13. Liddy said she will run again in '08

http://www.rawstory.com/news/2006/Blogger__Senator_Elizabeth_Dole_wont_1205.html

[Blackhatjack]

21. I've Watched Liddy Dole's Career, And I Think She Will Not Run....

.... she has always been locked at the hip with Bush on every issue, ...until now. Recently she has been putting space between herself and Bush, saying she had lots of questions that needed answering --which means her support on the troop surge and war in Iraq is conditional.

She is reaching the age where being a member of the minority in the Senate is not all that appealing. She stands to make a ton of money if she does not run again, writing books, speaking engagements, and using her contacts as a lobbyist.

Right now, there is no announced Democratic candidate running against her reelection. The key is finding the right democratic candidate to run for her seat, consolidating the fundraising around them, and not waiting to oppose her.

AS this OP points out, a lot of her fellow Repub Senators are going to retire and not seek reelection, and the Repubs are going to take another big defeat in 2008 further reducing her party's power.

I think when push comes to shove, she says I have had enough --there are other things I want to do.

[CorpGovActivist]

29. Plus, There's Always "Bob's Health" ...

... to trot out, as a face-saving way for her to fold.

- Dave

[wake.up.america]

14. What's with Liz Dole? Is she nice? Reminds me of Babara Bush.

[Tatiana]

15. I'd put her in the same category as Kay Bailey Hutchison. IOW, pure evil. n/t

[LeftishBrit]

31. Am I right that the only good thing about her ..

is that she ISN'T her predecessor Jesse Helms?

Until Dick Cheney came on the scene, Helms was the American politician that I hated most. Even more than Ronnie Reagan.

[ingac70]

43. Babs Bush is a greasy haint!

:dem:

[LynneSin]

16. If Richardson is running for President I highly doubt he'd run for Senate too

n/t

[NMDemDist2]

19. Richardson is Gov. of NM until 2010

no Senate for him in 08

[ellie]

20. Voinovich from OH

needs to give it a rest as well.

[DemReadingDU]

42. Voinovich won re-election in 2004

up for re-election in 2010, not 2008

[Parche]

35. Senate

I say we have a good chance at New Mexico, Virginia (Warner)

Mississippi is an extreme longshot as is Idaho

North Carolina is 50/50