Alaska Senate and House Races Bring Surprises

[Blue_In_AK]

Mudflats, as usual, analyzes this well. http://mudflats.wordpress.com/2008/11/05/3719/

It’s been an amazing day in American politics. President Elect Obama has heard the voice of America, and it is demanding change. The future seems full of promise and possibility for the first time in a long time.

But back on the Last Frontier, we know it just wouldn’t be Alaska if things went smoothly, or predictably. Any day now, I expect new Alaskan license plates to be released saying “Alaska” on the top, and “You Can’t Make This Stuff Up” across the bottom.

Despite polling numbers that indicated comfortable leads for Senate candidate Mark Begich, and House candidate Ethan Berkowitz, both races are too close to call until the final absentee and early votes are counted. Yes, it seems that we now have a “Stevens Effect”, people who say they wouldn’t vote for a convicted felon to pollsters, but when they get behind the curtain, they just can’t seem to resist the temptation.

Mark Begich (D) vs. Ted Stevens (R-I)

At last count with 99% of precincts reporting Begich trailed Stevens by only 4000 votes, 46.5% to 48%. But don’t write off Begich just yet. There are tens of thousands of votes yet to be counted - almost 50,000 in all. Absentee ballots have yet to be tallied, and more are arriving daily. In addition, any early votes that happened between last Thursday and Election Eve, are still to be counted. What does all this mean? We won’t know the outcome of this race for two weeks.

If Stevens is elected, he will face expulsion by the Senate, Alaskans will have the dubious honor of being the only state to ever elect a convicted felon, and Stevens will face expulsion. It will require a 2/3 vote to remove him. Sarah Palin, who asked Stevens to step down so Alaskans could have a “real” choice would NOT be able to appoint anyone to fill the seat. I heard pundits last night speculating that Palin would appoint herself to the seat. That will not happen. The Alaska Supreme Court has already decided this issue and removed the right of a governor to appoint anyone to a senate seat. Period. That said, there is nothing to prevent Palin from entering herself as a candidate in the special election to fill that seat.

So, what happened?

There are as many theories and opinions as people. Here are a few.

* Stevens is more like family than a mere politician. If he says he’s innocent, then he’s innocent. * He was railroaded. He continues to have the support of Alaska’s other Senator Lisa Murkowski, and Congressman Don Young. The feds were just out to get him.
* Some Alaskans, despite being presented with the facts, will never ever vote Democratic. Ever.
* Stevens gained votes from the inflated Republican turnout that came out to vote for Palin.
* If Stevens gets in and gets expelled by the senate, there’s another opportunity to get a different Republican in that seat and not create a potential Democratic dynasty. This was openly promoted by right wing talk radio before the election.
* Some Alaska voters have voted for Stevens every election of their lives. They’re happy with what he’s done, so why stop now?
* Alaskans are terrified of giving up seniority in the Senate. We’re ignored a lot, and we worry that if Ted isn’t there with his experience, his connections, and his doggedness, we’ll be up a creek.
* Nobody “outside” (aka the Federal Government, the FBI and the IRS) is going to tell me who to vote for. (sticking out chin, crossing arms and feeling like and Alaskan “maverick”)


Ethan Berkowitz (D) vs. Don Young (R-I)

This race is not as tight as the Senate race. In a stunning outcome that flies in the face of all recent polls, Don Young looks like he will pull it off. The bombastic, bloviating incumbent has a comfortable lead over the favored newcomer, and is up by more than 17,000 votes. The same 50,000 ballots have yet to be counted for these candidates, but that’s a pretty big margin to make up for Berkowitz. So, as excruciating as it is, and despite the fact that Berkowitz has not conceded, we may be sending Don Young back for his 19th term as Alaska’s one and only member of the House of Representatives. I would like to extend my humble apologies to the United States Congress. Forgive us, for we know not what we do.

So what happened?

Look back up at the “So what happened?” section above and insert the name Don Young, every time you see the name Ted Stevens, and add the following:

Just because he’s spent $1.2 million in legal fees, doesn’t mean he’s done anything wrong. He hasn’t even been indicted yet!
Asked if he was surprised at the way the numbers were running, Young said, “Not me. … The pollsters were wrong and they’ve always been wrong. … They don’t understand Alaska.”

The Anchorage Daily News has some good coverage of the Stevens-Begich race and the Young-Berkowitz race.

There are many chapters yet to be written.

[indepat]

1. Alaskan 'pukes must be like all 'pukes in that they would seemingly rather have a convicted 'puke

rather than vote for some bleeding-heart pinko commie liberal who is soft on crime, drugs, and terrorism and weak on national defense. :P

[Blue_In_AK]

3. That about sums it up.

The really weird thing about it is that I actually LIKE my fellow Alaskans, almost all of them, despite their faults and thinking errors. It's never dull up here, anyway, and politics is always full of surprises.

[Veritas_et_Aequitas]

2. I've always enjoyed your commentary on Alaskan politics.

So what happens now? In all likelihood Stevens will be expelled from Senate. Do the Democrats stand any shot of capturing that seat, or do I really have to worry about hearing about "Senator Palin" for the next 6 years?

[Blue_In_AK]

5. I wish I could tell you.

I'm still kind of stunned that Ted seems to be winning this Senate race, although with so many ballots remaining to be counted, anything is possible. With any luck at all, Mark will pull it out of the fire -- fingers crossed.

Sarah CANNOT appoint herself, as Mudflats pointed out. She could conceivably run in a special election, but I have no idea how she would do. She has a lot of bridge-mending to do to regain anything like that former high approval rating she had. Her extreme partisanship on the campaign trail didn't sit well with many of her former allies, particularly Independents and Democrats. We couldn't believe the tone she took out there -- it wasn't like anything we had ever seen before. Now everybody is wondering who is the REAL Sarah. I know she's going to come back here and blame McCain for making her act like that, but she seemed to be enjoying herself just a little too much.

It's going to be an interesting time up here for the next few months, I suspect.

[Generic Other]

4. Thanks for sharing all your Alaska insider info

I would have been pretty ignorant if it hadn't been for your keeping on top of things for us. Thanx!

Sorry you are surrounded by so many nutty Repugs.

My Canadian grandparents came West for the Yukon Goldrush and veered south to the states. My father was in Nome in his Army days. He actually had a part in the first movie made in Alaska. The Cheechakas. My hubby was born in Ketchikan (he could have seen the bridge to nowhere if it had been anywhere). I am endlessly fascinated by Alaska and Alaskans.

I can see how Palin got elected. She seems a bit more Idahoish to me, but that's a very fine distinction only those in Washington (caught between the northern state and the eastern one could detect). Now don't get me started on Oregonians.

:grouphug:

[Bravo Zulu]

6. Thanks for the update,

keep us informed on what is happening up there in Alaska,we dodged a bullet with palin, and I hope the folks in Alaska get rid of her!