Franken's Position Looks Surprisingly Good, New Political Study Shows

[onehandle]

Source: Huffington Post

Despite trailing his opponent by slightly more than two hundred votes, Democratic challenger Al Franken stands a strong chance of passing Sen. Norm Coleman during the upcoming recount, according to at least one prominent political scientist.

Professor Michael C. Herron of Dartmouth College, has put together a new study of the voting patterns in Minnesota, in the process determining that the majority of voters who cast unrecorded ballots in the Senate race were likely Franken supporters.

"If someone put a gun to my head and said, 'You have to bet,' I would bet Franken," Herron said, when reached by phone. "It won't be a wipe-out. Two hundred votes is effectively tied. We just know that, in this case, Democrats tend to more often ." In Minnesota, the "intent" of the voter is considered during recounts.

Read more: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/17/frankens-position-looks-s_n_144449.html

[desktop]

1. Does the professor account for GOP recount cheating?

Franken will win if the recount is honest. Just correcting the GOP cheating that was done in the original counting will put Franken over the top. But whether there will be republican operatives involved in some aspects of the recount could change things. Why am I so cynical about vote counting? The republican party has made me this way.

[Pab Sungenis]

2. The recount will be honest.

Minnesota has one of the best recount laws in the country: by hand, and intent considered.

[Douglas Carpenter]

3. Intrade is now speculating at a 65% chance Al Franken will win

for the Senate race up there in Alaska - Intrade is now speculating at a 96.8% chance that Democratic candidate and Anchorage Mayor, Mark Begich will win:

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

[No Elephants]

4. "...Democrats tend to more often.'' Tend to what?

[onehandle]

5. Use their voting materials incorrectly.

Use checks instead of blacking the entire circle. Marking outside the circle. Etc...

[customerserviceguy]

7. I saw that happen in 2004

when I was manually recounting ballots in the Washington State governor's race. My table actually found an extra vote for Gregoire! The voter had marked the oval very lightly, but it was obvious what the intent was.

My theory is that older people (who remember the New Deal very fondly in the blue states) just don't have the energy to really bear down on a pencil.

[daveskilt]

8. and while it is rude to say...

Dem voters are by and large at the top of the educational tree and at the bottom. look at the exit polls for Franken and he wins among voters with a postgrad education and among voters with high school only.

filling in the bubble with an X or a smiley face is more likely to happen with the less educated among us.

just saying...

[DeepModem Mom]

6. K&R