"Dollar Bill" Jefferson (D-LA) Loses Re-Election

[camera obscura]

Rep. "Dollar Bill" Jefferson (D-LA) has lost his seat in tonight's Louisiana elections to Republican candidate Joseph Cao, giving the Dems their own case of Ted Stevens Syndrome -- that is, a safe and well-entrenched incumbent, who holds a seat that ought to be an easy win for his party, going down to defeat on a corruption scandal.

Jefferson, of course, is the New Orleans Congressman who is currently under a multi-count federal indictment on corruption charges, in a bizarre case that involved, among other things, $90,000 in cash being found in his freezer back in 2006. That scandal wasn't enough for him to lose re-election in 2006, but the indictment that has come down since then appears to have done it.

This is a solidly-Democratic, majority-black district, so the idea of any Republican getting elected here is a real shocker, even under these circumstances. As such, look for the Dems to put up a strong candidate in 2010 -- maybe one who isn't under indictment -- and make this seat their top pick-up target.

Late Update: With 100% of precincts reporting, Cao has defeated Jefferson by a 50%-47% margin, with a little bit under 65,000 total votes cast.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/12/dollar_bill_jefferson_d-la_los.php

Didn't see this posted yet, sorry if it's a repeat.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

1. How is it we're just finding it out now? Was it a special election?

Pardon my ignorance. :hide:

[camera obscura]

2. It seems that they had multiple runoffs in the primary

and the last one was on Nov 4th.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

11. So wait, Jefferson won the primary but couldn't beat the Republican?

What kind of hapless Dems were they running against him, anyway?

[RB TexLa]

12. A drug addict TV reporter

[FLAprogressive]

14. You mean alleged drug addict. nt

[RB TexLa]

15. No I don't. I don't think anyone would include alleged in reference to Helena Moreno and drugs

coke her up and pass her around.

[Sgent]

21. Too many

There were some really good candidates in the primary, but the voting ended up something like:

23%
22%
20%
19%
various

So Jefferson only got 23% or so in the original primary, but won the runoff. The other runoff candidate got in there due to background (only non-black candidate), but was really bad (a news reporter -- that's it).

I gotta tell you, this was one of the few times I voted for the R. This one is not a right wing wacko, and Jefferson was so terrible.

[RB TexLa]

5. Gustav caused Louisiana to move elections back.

[RB TexLa]

3. I'm sure our little ethics choir will be delighted with a republican winning this.

[FLAprogressive]

6. in the grand scheme of things it's really not a big deal.

Cao will likely be a one-termer. In a black-majority D+28 district his chances of getting re-elected against a black Democrat are slim to none.

[MercutioATC]

16. Not delighted with a Repub win, just realistic about the existence of bad Dems.

This guy deserved to lose.

The Democratic Party deserved to lose this district this cycle if they couldn't put up a better Dem candidate.

[FLAprogressive]

4. Holy shit. By far the HUGEST upset of the year. LA-6 is rated D+28.

It's almost good in a way though....Cao is likely to be a one-termer (seeing as the district is D+28) and we get rid of corruption in our party.

[RB TexLa]

7. You meant alleged corruption, right? You just forgot to type alleged, didn't you?

Or I guess if Bush's justice department says it's true, that's good enough for you.

[FLAprogressive]

8. Oh, it's all a conspiracy.

You blue kool-aid drinkers seriously need to get a grip. Just because he has a "D" at the end of his name doesn't mean he's incapable of corruption.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Jefferson#Corruption_investigation

sounds a DOJ hitjob to me. :sarcasm:

[RB TexLa]

10. Honestly, I don't care if he did do it.

I contributed and supported him.


But this trust in evidence being secured in a constitutional manner by Alberto Gonzales' justice department by DUers is just, well weird.

[FLAprogressive]

13. Obviously you aren't interested in rooting out corruption in our own party.

Fine....we'll be just like the Republicans then.

[Alexander]

17. "Honestly, I couldn't care less about political corruption if it's a Democrat doing it"

Just repeating what you typed in your headline.

Do you think first, or do you just hit "Post message" as a reflex?

[RB TexLa]

33. Sorry, I don't turn on Democrats as fast as you do.

[FLAprogressive]

39. Looks like the Party Loyalty Police is out. n/t

[camera obscura]

19. He was indicted

[DemFromMem]

9. Will Cao remain a Republican?

He ran as a "moderate" Republican and has positions on many issues that are not so Republican. He has run previously for the state legislator as an independent. Given the make up of the district, a scandal-free Democrat will have a huge advantage in 2010. If I were Cao, I'd look at either becoming an independent or switch to the Democrats. A lot of his voters were Democrats anyway.

[Jack Rabbit]

18. The Democrats should have put up a strong candidate in 2008

Well, good riddance to the crook. We can put up with a Republican in that district for two years.

[Stevepol]

20. The first question of course is what kind of voting machines were used

and how vulnerable were they to hacking or manipulation?

A second question: What did the exit polls say, that is, the polls before being re-calibrated to fit the supposed result?

A related question: what methods of voter suppression were used? And what other illegal methods of cheating and scamming were used?

[camera obscura]

22. Google says...

they use electronic voting machines.

I don't know what the exit polls said, but people were projecting a Jefferson win before today, and a Jefferson loss as people came out.

Ultimately it seems that what doomed him is a low voter turnout. Perhaps people just weren't enthused about voting for an indicted criminal. Also, his opponent got some Democratic endorsements due to the unusual race.

[FLAprogressive]

27. Yeah....if an indicted politician loses....it must be a voting machine error.

Not that voters may have standards. The blind defense of Jefferson here is bordering on disgusting.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

35. If a Dem politician that was leading in the polls loses in a very Democratic leaning district,

and electronic voting machines are used, to not question the result's authenticity is blindly accepting and borders on disgusting.

[FLAprogressive]

37. Or could the endorsement of the major newspaper in NOLA ..along with endorsements from....

Dems Harry Connick and Helena Moreno (Bill Jefferson's primary opponent) in favor of Cao may have swayed the election.

Not to mention that maybe, just maybe, the people of that district aren't as dumb as you make them out to be and may not want to vote for an indicted congressman who was caught with 100 grand in his freezer.

This guy is going to be a one-termer and will be replaced by a Dem if the district even exists by the 2010 census. In the grand scheme of things it's not a big deal of things and I'm glad that we won't have Jefferson's cloud hanging over our party. Having him expelled/resign would have just brought more negative publicity to our party....

In a nutshell, Cao is this year's Nick Lampson...elected in a district with such an overwhelming tilt to the opposing party because of another candidate's issues. No way a D+26 (although I expect the rating to be slightly lower this time around) district re-elects a Republican, especially if a black Democrat opposes him.

In short, if there were any fraud....it was likely done by someone on our side to save us any further embarrassment of having Dollar Bill in congress.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

34. Agreed. n/t

[marshall]

23. What is it with Louisiana and Asian Republicans?

An Indian Republican governor, and now a Vietnamese Republican Congressman. What's wrong with those people?

[Thothmes]

24. Do you find something objectionable about people

with Asiatic ethnicity?

[marshall]

26. Of course not, that's not my point

I've lived in Vietnam, I have a child adopted from Vietnam, I speak Vietnamese, and I've traveled extensively throughout the rest of Asia.

[AZ Criminal JD]

28. Racism against Asians is OK is your book?

[BlooInBloo]

32. I have no idea about Indian, but it kinda seems to me that a lot of Vietnamese refugee *sponsors*...

are in hick/red areas of the country. I have no idea what the explanation for this is, nor even if it's actually true beyond my very limited experience.

[liberalpragmatist]

42. Vietnamese-Americans have traditionally been more Republican

Most Vietnamese-Americans were supporters of the South Vietnamese regime -- many were middle-class or upper-class opponents of the Communists or they were Catholics (who came under repression by the Communists). They supported American involvement in Vietnam and some were Boat People (and blamed Democrats for cutting off funds for the war).

Like the Cuban community, many became Republicans.

That being said, it's easy to generalize; younger Vietnamese-Americans are more diverse and liberal in their political views and there are plenty of Vietnamese-American Democrats or Democratic voters.

[BlooInBloo]

44. It's not a generalization problem with what you say - it's a *generational* issue...

as you more-or-less indicate.

Who says the "other" don't assimilate? They get fat, waste money, just like "real" Americans. It just takes them a generation. lol!

[JI7]

25. we could have won with almost any other Democrat

[KamaAina]

29. Great. I just sent a resume down there.

What am I supposed to tell the guy if he gets back to me? "Sorry. You know how much I wanted to help the city recover. But do you actually expect me to move to repuke heaven? I've been out of diapers for over forty years... see ya."

What ever happened to "Vote for the crook. It's important!"?

[sofa king]

30. Good.

The loss is insignificant in Congress and Jefferson will no longer be able to be waved around as the "they're doing it too" voodoo doll by the criminal institution known as the GOP.

He should have had the good grace to leave office years ago, and the Democratic Party should have pushed him to that decision.

[BlooInBloo]

31. The de-black-ification of Nawlins: A 12-point demographic swing black --> white...

Is there any good reason why this large demographic change should not be examined, to determine its role in the election?

Note that "it makes white folks feel better to ignore it" is NOT a good reason.

Mandatory disclaimer: Jefferson is a crook, a shitty crook, yadayadayada. Doesn't mean that's the ONLY force in play.


Oh yeah - demographic change data: http://www.wwltv.com/topstories/stories/wwl080608mlcensus.1fc34742.html

[camera obscura]

36. The demographic shift is definitely a big part in LA elections but I don't think it had a part here

This district is still hugely Democratic. Like I posted up thread I think it was ultimately low turnout that doomed it. People just were even less enthused than they usually are for runoffs.

[FLAprogressive]

38. How enthused can you get when you're going to vote for someone who will likely be a felon...n/t

[BlooInBloo]

40. I'll never understand why people believe that there can be only *1* reason...

as opposed to a bundle of reasons whose "vector sum" is the final result we see.

[FLAprogressive]

41. Low turnout & the fact that Jefferson was indicted were probably the 2 major ones

Demographics may have had a bit to do with it....but it would have been close regardless of the demographics....had Jefferson been clean Cao would have been nothing but a vanity candidate who was running for congress just for the hell of it.

[camera obscura]

43. Exactly. there were multiple reasons but I don't think demographics were as big as those ones.