Even Nate Silver agrees - Harry Reid has mathematically been a disaster as Majority Leader.

[backscatter712]

On Making Mitch McConnell Wet His Pants

B.R. raises several interesting points, but they ultimately point back to one thing: Harry Reid has been exceptionally ineffective as the Democrats' majority leader.

The number of cloture votes skyrocketed in the 110th Congress following the Democratic takeover of the Senate and Reid's assumption of the majority leader position. The Senate voted on 112 cloture motions in the 110th, exactly double the number (56) of cloture votes in the 109th Congress, and two-and-a-half times as many as the average number of cloture votes (44) over the previous nine Congresses. Of these cloture motions, 51 were rejected (meaning that opponents of a bill succeeded in blocking an up-or-down vote) and 61 were passed.

(Dammit, the graph's in png format - DU won't display it here. Read the original article to see it.)

...


There are basically two mechanisms that a majority leader can employ to limit filibusters: firstly, he can threaten to block votes on certain of the opposition party's legislation (or alternatively, present carrots to them for allowing a vote to proceed), and secondly, he can publicly shame them. Reid managed to do neither, and the Senate Republicans did fairly well for themselves considering that they were in a minority and were burdened by a President with negative political capital.

I don't imagine the culture of the Senate changing in the new Congress so long as it's under Reid's direction, and Reid is highly unlikely to be replaced. There is some chance, however, that Obama rather than Reid will dictate the tone, particularly if Joe Biden is dispatched to Capitol Hill fairly often.

That graph shows the historical number of filibusters, compared with number of successful clotures. Filibusters have skyrocketed since Reid became majority leader, because he's not doing his job. He doesn't have the spine to twist arms or publicly shame the Republicans when they're blocking legislation, he doesn't have the political sense to horse-trade tasty earmarks to Republicans in exchange for cloture votes, and is flat out inadequate for the job.

Nate's said what I've said a few times here - Obama's gonna have to do Harry Reid's job for him - he'll have to send Biden to do one of the Vice President's traditional jobs (in other words, not running the country as shadow president) - twisting arms and horse-trading in Congress to push legislation through and motivate obnoxious Congresscritters to do their jobs. It's pretty clear that Harry Reid will give us more of the same shit if left to his own devices, so that means Obama and Biden will have to run the Senate around him.

[burythehatchet]

1. Harry "Alan Colmes" Reid

[backscatter712]

2. Ain't that the truth.

Their whole modus operandi is to allow themselves to be bitch-slapped.

[backscatter712]

3. We could also call him the Caveman... n/t

[Ichingcarpenter]

4. "The bottom line, however" in that Nate's Math is flawless again

He has provide the Data and Math to expose the truth




"The bottom line, however, is that the Republicans are filibustering more and more often because they can get away with it. If Reid can't get them to pay a greater public price, then the Democrats ought to find somebody else who can."
-- Nate Silver at 1:32 PM

[Octafish]

5. Conditions have, eh, forced Harry to take the, eh, conservative approach frequently.

For most of Bush's "two terms," the Senate turned away from treason, warmongering, mass murder, corruption, theft of the Treasury, money for the connected, and myriad other crimes because we were in the minority and there was nothing we could do about it.

Lo! We get control of the Senate and what do we hear? "We can't do anything with the Republikkks' use of the filibuster."

Hey, Harry! I got your fillibuster-proof majority right here: Use the Truth. Fear of exposure will motivate those gangsters your colleagues who want to keep their jobs.

[Laelth]

6. I like the idea of Obama "dispatching" Joe Biden to the Hill.

I hope Obama does manage to take the reigns of the party. Harry Reid has proven to be embarrassingly weak.

The United States is a LIBERAL Country.

:dem:

-Laelth

[backscatter712]

8. Meet the new leader of the Democrats in the Senate: Joe Biden!

At least that's what I hope...

[bvar22]

7. What makes you think Obama disagrees with Reid?

Their voting records are nearly identical.
Obama has never challenged the Senate leadership, or even publicly disagreed.

*Immunity for Telecoms
*Spying on Americans without Warrants
*Funding for the Wars
*Wall Street Bailouts

Reid and Obama stand in the same camp.
Reid's Senate Leadership has been a shining VICTORY for "The Pragmatic Centrists".

[Laelth]

9. Sadly true.

As I have said all along, I hope Obama is really a flaming leftist and has been hiding his true colors.

See here: http://journals.democraticunderground.com/Laelth/15

We shall see what we shall see. History may make Obama into a liberal (as it did FDR), regardless of whether he is a liberal at heart. Depressions do that to sane Presidents.

:dem:

-Laelth

[bvar22]

10. I cling to that hope also.

Certainly more hope with Obama than another Republican administration.

[Laelth]

11. Amen to that. n/t

:toast:

-Laelth

[Two Americas]

12. leftists are made, not born

This persistent modern notion that political positions are a matter of "personal values" is out of control. It leads us to see politicians as though they were a product, and as though elections were an exercise in shopping.

Politicians are as left wing as we force them to be. It has nothing to do with what people "are."