from Stockhouse:
Scary predictions for 200912/15/2008 3:58:43 PM | Andrew Mickey
Stocks, though, are fairly priced given the rough shape of the economyGreat Depression II…15% drop in home prices…Food riots…9% unemployment…Another 50% drop in the Dow…My how the world has changed?
A year ago, the bulls were off and running. Many were “buying on the dip.” Commodity prices were soaring. Farmers were making a killing. Emerging markets consumers couldn’t get enough of anything.
It seemed like the boom would never end. Any talk of a full scale global depression or 50% decline in the Dow would have been laughed off. This year, it’s a totally different story. The bears are out in force and the leading opinion-makers in the investment community couldn’t be more bearish on the economy.
It’s a tough time to be an investor. Hundreds of thousands have already thrown in the towel. Over the next few months, ongoing volatility will cause even more to jump to the sidelines. But there isn’t a more important time than now, as we close the books on the “Year of the Crash,” to look forward.
...(snip)...
Jim Rogers:
“This may turn into the Great Depression II”The man credited with calling the commodity boom a decade ago hasn’t changed his tune.
Rogers says, “Virtually the only asset class I know where the fundamentals are not impaired - in fact, where they are actually improving - is commodities.”
You gotta admire his conviction and that he’s probably spot on (over the long-term).
Will he be proven right in 2009 though? Only time will tell. I’ve got to tell you though, I’m right there with him when it comes to agriculture. In the interview, Rogers cites, “The inventories of food worldwide are already at the lowest levels they've been in 50 years.”
...(snip)...
Nouriel Roubini:
“Things are going to be awful for everyday people.”Roubini has earned quite a reputation for his brand of well-researched (and, quite often, correct) gloom around the world’s financial markets. This time is no different.
Roubini warns of another 15% decline in home values and “all the advanced economies are at the beginning of a very hard landing.” Worst of all, he says the recovery (if it does come) will be a very weak one.
His advice is simple, avoid risky assets and conserve capital. .......(more)
The complete piece is at:
http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2008/December/15/Scary-predictions-for-2009
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