Did Obama actually win by 20 million votes? (TIA) - x

[tiptoe]

Did Obama actually win by 20 Million Votes?
A Conversation about the 2008 Election    — by TruthIsAll

...
Check out the 2008 Final National Exit Poll (Final NEP) — it confirmed the Vote Count:

Vote for President in 2004:    (4,195 Respondents)

 

 

   

 

 

 

Obama

 

McCain

 

'Other'

John Kerry

 

37%

(

Returning Kerry voters

=

48.5m

)

89%

( =

43.16m)

 

9%

( =

4.36m)

 

2%

( =

0.97m)

George W. Bush

 

46%

(

Returning Bush voters

=

60.3m

)

17%

( =

10.25m)

 

82%

( =

49.44m)

 

1%

( =

0.60m)

Someone else

 

4%

(

Returning 'Other' voters

=

5.2m

)

66%

( =

3.46m)

 

24%

( =

1.26m)

 

10%

( =

0.52m)

Did Not Vote

 

13%

(

'New' voters

=

17.0m

)

71%

( =

12.10m)

 

27%

( =

4.60m)

 

2%

( =

0.34m)

 

 

100%

 

 

 

 

131.1m

 

 

68.97m

 

 

 

59.66m

 

 

 

2.44m 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

52.62%

 

 

 

45.52%

 

 

 

1.86%

How could 46% of 131.1m (60.3m) have been returning Bush voters?

He had 62.0m votes in 2004. About 59m were alive in 2008. Assuming 95% turned out in 2008, only 56m voted. The NEP is off by 4.0 million Bush voters.

And just 37% (48.5m) were Kerry voters?

How could returning Bush-voters outnumber Kerry-voters by 11.8 million? Bush’s 2004 Vote Margin was only 3.0m.

How could 4% of the 2008 electorate (5.2m) consist of third-party 2004 voters?

There were only 1.2m in 2004. The NEP is off by 4.0 million third-party voters.

... it’s obvious that the returning-2004-Voter Mix in the Final NEP is implausible. How could that be?

Here’s how. There are three possibilities:
...

Check out these Final 2008 NEP Scenarios based on a plausible returning-voter mix ...

...the evidence strongly suggests that Obama won by 17–23m votes not by the recorded 9m....

full article:   Did Obama actually win by 20 Million Votes?

[On the Road]

1. Sigh

:eyes:

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

2. exit polls are self reported. People routinely lie about their past voting behavior

[BeFree]

5. If...

...people routinely lie, then it should even out. Or are you saying just Gore and Kerry voters are the only liars?

[tiptoe]

13. kick! nt

[book_worm]

3. No, he won the biggest democratic victory in a persidential election since LBJ in 1964

and prior to that you would have to go back to FDR in '44. We don't have to try to make it greater than it was when it was pretty great aleady. I'm sure every state discounts votes for one reason or another and Obama probably did win by more votes but 20 million is a stretch.

[BeFree]

6. Well

TIA makes the case that 20 million is no stretch at all. And given the voting systems in place and the propensity of the republicans to do and say anything at all to win, it is no stretch to imagine that the theft of millions of votes is right up their alley.

Besides, if the government wanted to have verified elections we would have verified elections. But we don't have verified elections do we? So to dismiss anybody who works toward verification is tantamount to supporting non-verification. Is that what you really want?

[ProfessorGAC]

12. Did You See All The Unsupported Assumptions?

Anyone can say anything if they make assumptions with no basis in reality.

95% values pulled out of the air. Assumptions about how many Bush voters wouldn't be Bush voters anymore are implicit.

Remember: Numbers don't lie, but one can lie using numbers.
GAC

[tritsofme]

4. Its nice to see that nobody cares about the crap TIA is peddling

these days.

[BeFree]

7. Sorry to burst your bubble

Lots of people do care about getting every vote counted as cast. It's those that don't care that allow votes to be stolen.

[tiptoe]

8. Thank you. nt

[BeFree]

9. Yes, well...

...thank you.

If we let this issue drop it will be the end of democracy as we know it. We have one foot out the door right already. TIA et al are keeping us from going all the way away.

Notice how the others didn't even have enough respect for the vote to respond to me?

Good work, tiptoe.

[Dreamer Tatum]

10. TIA didn't count shit.

He runs statistical analyses.

[BeFree]

11. Oh?

Yes he does count shit. The shit that the exit-polls dump. And by counting that shit he proves it is shit. High priced ($10M+) shit.

You should be glad someone is doing it = counting that shit.