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Video: Crash Will be Worse than Great Depression

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Leftest Donating Member (232 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-20-08 11:51 PM
Original message
Video: Crash Will be Worse than Great Depression
Interview with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, famous economist and author of “The Black Swan” and Dr. Mandelbrot, professor of Mathematics. Both say that the present economic situation is far more serious than the Great Depression and the economy during the American Revolution.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3zZ6qNWeGw
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lonestarnot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-21-08 12:04 AM
Response to Original message
1. The guy asking the questions, I wish he would have shut-up and let the other two talk.
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Tumbulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-21-08 12:11 AM
Response to Original message
2. I have been thinking this for the past 10 years


In fact I think that Obama sees this as a real possibility as well and think that this is why he is picking folks who have government experience and who are in general older than he is, despite their centrist policies.
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CoffeeCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-21-08 12:17 AM
Response to Original message
3. Life today vs. 1929....
Think about how much simpler life was in 1929. People lived within their means and had money saved.
They knew how to grow food, sew and fix their plumbing. There was no credit-card debt and no big-screen
televisions.

A modern-day crash would leave us all with a bigger fall. Our lives are more complicated and expensive.

My grandparents survived The Depression, and I look at how they lived. They were able to hunker down
and conserve. They lived off very little, and they were able to find work here and there, by walking
into town and doing random jobs. Their expenses were minimal.

Today is expensive. Americans are mortgaged to their eyeballs, and their $40,000 SUVs are financed
as well. We've got cable TV, Internet, health-club memberships, credit cards, the high cost of
commuting. Our gadgets, toys, appliances and furniture are more expensive. I doubt anyone in 1929
had a lawn service!

The fall is just so much more farther, in 2009. We're dependent on "things" yet we don't know how
to sew on a button.

I can't imagine the psychological devastation if economic conditions worsen. My grandparents
fared just fine, but somehow, I don't think the yuppies of today will fare so well when it
all goes to hell.
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Oak2004 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-21-08 12:27 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. People were deeply in debt then, too
buying newfangled things like washing machines.

That's part of the mechanism for collapse.
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PSPS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-21-08 02:30 AM
Response to Reply #5
7. Not true
Back then, credit was rarely used to buy things. People saved up and paid cash. Buying things on credit is something that became common after WWII.
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Oak2004 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-21-08 05:08 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. No: it was called "installment selling"
And while consumer debt was, as it is now, dwarfed by debts associated with the financial sector, consumer debt was booming just prior to the great depression:


"From the 1870s on small-loan lenders began springing up around the country. In fact other than the Great Atlantic and Pacific Tea Company (the A&P), the largest chain stores in America were illegal lenders.... (crackdowns on illegal lending) led the formation of the American Association of Small Loan Brokers, an organization that lobbied for legal reform....the AASLB put together a compromise legislative package. By 1917 the proposal was introduced in several state legislatures. By 1932 twenty-five state had some version if the law on their books.

"....Installment selling first became popular with high priced farm equipment. The equipment allowed much greater productivity but the price made a cash purchase impossible. Because of the increased productivity the new machine promised family farmers readily agreed to purchase on installment terms.... Soon almost every type or consumer good could be purchased on the installment plan. While large ticket items like furniture, pianos, and sewing machines were among the most popular purchases items like curtains, dishes, and clothing were sold on installment plans too. Many merchants set up shop to sell exclusively on the installment plan....

"....In the 1920s the installment plan become common place and had become acceptable to the point that the social stigma had all but disappeared. The leader of the installment plan, now known as “Acceptance” or “Finance Plan” was the automobile. In 1924 three of four cars were purchased that way.

"....In 1927 The Economics of Installment Selling was published. In it the author, E.R.A. Seligman introduced the concept of “pay as you use” as an alternative to “buy now, pay later.” This happened because you were actually simultaneously paying for and using the item. Seligman opened of the idea of “wise borrowing, foolish borrowing.” His view differed greatly from the Victorian era’s thinking in terms of borrowing to produce profit and borrowing to produce immediate comfort. In his view the production of comfort, in essence bringing happiness to one’s life, was just as valuable as the production of profit. In this sense the distinction of good and bad as defined by how the credit was used was erased. The real distinction was made in the borrower’s ability to pay the bill."


http://www.ihatedebt.com/ALookatDebt/TheHistoryofDebtinAmerica/Debt-in-America-1900-1949.php

(P.S. -- that site is not where I first learned of the rise of consumer indebtedness prior to the Great Depression: it's just the first reference that popped up when I searched for something to point you at. I've read multiple, more academic, accounts, over multiple years, of exactly what this website describes, and I've not read any credible history that contradicts this).

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mcg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-22-08 02:17 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. and people were buying stocks on margin with little regulation ...
regarding margin requirements. There was a show on TV that discussed this and other aspects of the 1929 crash and Great Depression. There was a mania of unrealistic optimism of ever increasing prosperity, all you had to do was buy stock and you would get rich, or so people thought. It didn't discuss the installment selling, but I imagine that people thought, "I'm going to be rich, so why not buy on installment plans?".
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silverojo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-21-08 05:30 AM
Response to Reply #7
9. Laura Ingalls Wilder and her husband bought things on credit
So did her father. That was back in the late 1800's. Credit was, indeed, common in those days.
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Greyhound Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-22-08 02:30 PM
Response to Reply #3
11. One of the "benefits" of consolidation. As each entity collapses
they will bring down their subsidiaries and holdings, add our lack of industrial capacity and it gets really ugly.

One more bright spot, as they go under, we will "discover" that many, perhaps most, of our huge corporate overlords are nothing but completely hollowed out shell companies that no longer have any real assets.


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Oak2004 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-21-08 12:25 AM
Response to Original message
4. That's a rare moment of real truth
scattered in among the it-isn't-a-depression-s and the it-will-only-last-a-couple-of-years-tops-es I see in the media.

I watch CNBC these days for a good laugh.
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CoffeeCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-21-08 12:33 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. I agree about CNBC and MSNBC...
I watch these shows, and the talking heads on the trading floor and I literally
say out loud, "Are you for real?"

They are completely lying to all of us, and it is absurd.

Last week, one of the financial braintrusts on CNBC practically declared the
retail sector reborn, because Best Buy was up. They had just announced severe
cuts in employment and very low sales. I guess the employment cuts made the
stock price tick upward. However, for these liars to suggest that Best Buy, or
the retail sector, was having some kind of orgasmic rally, due to this--is worse
than telling lies.

These people solely exist now, to keep us in the market and to keep us buying
things.

It's revolting.
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