More Losses For Senate Republicans?
Democrats could pick up seats again in 2010 -- if Obama's second-year approval ratings are high.
Saturday, Dec. 20, 2008
by Charlie Cook and Jennifer E. Duffy
After losing a total of 13 or 14 seats (depending on the outcome in Minnesota) in the nightmarish 2006 and 2008 Senate elections, Republicans must be fantasizing about 2012, when 24 Democratic and just nine Republican Senate seats will be up for grabs.
However, Republicans first have to get past the 2010 races that, at first glance, would appear to put the GOP at a disadvantage for a third straight cycle. What we do not know at this point is how President-elect Obama's administration and agenda will fare in the next two years or what his job-approval ratings will be in the fall of 2010. What we do know, for the most part, is which Senate seats will be up. In the 34 races currently on tap, Republicans will have to defend 19 seats compared with 15 for Democrats. But that picture is growing increasingly complicated.
The "micro" political forces argue for a tough year in 2010 for Republicans, but the "macro" view suggests a great deal of variability.
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http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/cr_20081220_4906.php