Nouriel Roubini: His 2009 Outlook and Comments On The Culprits of the Economic Crisis

[Better Believe It]

Nouriel Roubini: His 2009 Outlook and The Culprits of the Economic Crisis

Latest Roubini interviews with the Financial Times.

Dec 17, 2008: Nouriel Roubini on His Outlook for 2009

Part 1, December 17 2008: Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics at Stern School of Business at NYU and chairman of RGE Monitor, expects 2009 to be a year of stagflation and recession for most of the global economic stagflation and recession for most of the global economy. He expects a severe, global recession. Whether or not it persists in 2010 will depend on how aggressive and effective policy actions are: monetary policy and fiscal policy and efforts to recapitalize financial institutions in the US and elsewhere. He believes there could be a return to positive economic growth by 2010. The European Central Bank should follow the Federal Reserve and cut interest rates further. The US needs a plan to reduce the debt burden to US households. The remedies will cost tax payers a lot of money.

To see the interview, part 1, video click here:
http://www.ft.com/cms/893ac9c8-757e-11dc-b7cb-0000779fd2ac.html?_i_referralObject=972170812&fromSearch=n

Dec 17, 2008: Nouriel Roubini on The Culprits of the Crisis

Part 2, December 17, 2008: Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics at Stern School of Business at NYU and chairman of RGE Monitor, blames the Federal Reserve, regulators, the greed and arrogance of Wall Street and credit rating agencies for fueling a global asset bubble. The financial system has already changed radically. The times of self-regulation - which means no regulation - are gone. There is always a question of who regulates the regulators. A significant amount of fiscal resources should be devoted to appropriate regulation, the system needs more regulators and more auditors. This is not the end of capitalism or the end of market economies, but there has to be an appropriate role for governments to make sure the financial system and the real economy are working the way they should.

To see the interview, part 2, click here:
http://www.ft.com/cms/893ac9c8-757e-11dc-b7cb-0000779fd2ac.html?_i_referralObject=972180763&fromSearch=n

Dec. 17, 2008: Nouriel Roubini on the next "shoe to drop"

Part 3, December 17, 2008: Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics at Stern School of Business at NYU and chairman of RGE Monitor, expects further financial stress. "A thousand if not more" hedge funds could go bust all at the same time. This means the selling of distress assets could continue. Another source of stress is emerging markets economies; there are about a dozen on the verge of a potential financial crisis, such as Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, Ukraine, Pakistan, Indonesia, Korea, Ecuador, Argentina and Venezuela. Other skeletons could come out of the opaque financial system, similar to the Bernard Madoff scandal. The dollar is likely to weaken over the medium term. US and global equities could see declines of another 15 to 20 per cent in the next few months and a bear market rally will fizzle out. Commodity prices could fall another 15 to 20 percent. Cash and cash like instruments like safe government bonds are still the safest bet for the next few months.

To see the interview, part 3, click here:
http://www.ft.com/cms/893ac9c8-757e-11dc-b7cb-0000779fd2ac.html?_i_referralObject=972188398&fromSearch=n

[Warpy]

1. Roubini has called a lot of this stuff correctly

but he's still missing the suppression of the demand side as the root of the problem and what will make this recession more painful the longer the supply siders are in control.

Yes, abolishing the regulations of the New Deal allowed thieves to set up shop legally. However, what is killing the larger economy isn't the thievery at the top, it's the artificial poverty at the bottom.

[Better Believe It]

2. Mike Whitney makes that point in his article

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x4703337