A rundown of the states likely to gain or lose seats because of population change.

[Are_grits_groceries]

States gaining seats:

Arizona appears to be locked into gaining two seats, although there is an outside chance it could be held to just one.

Florida originally appeared on track to gain two seats, but more recent estimates have it gaining one instead.

Georgia will almost certainly gain exactly one seat.

...likewise, Nevada will gain a seat.

North Carolina may gain one seat, or it might not.

Oregon is about even money to gain a seat.

South Carolina is better than even money to gain a seat.

Texas will gain at least three seats, and will probably gain four, although a slowdown in migration could prevent that.

Utah will definitely gain a seat.

Washington might gain a seat.

States losing seats:

California may lose a seat, although the most recent estimates show that as being less likely. Another significant factor with California (and Texas, Florida, etc.) is how efficient the Census is in accounting for illegal immigrants, who like it or not do count toward Congressional appointments.

Illinois will probably, although not certainly, lose one seat.

Iowa will definitely lose a seat.

Likewise, Louisiana will lose one (thanks, Hurricane Katrina!)

Massachusetts will also lose a seat.

...as will Michigan (thanks, failing domestic auto industry!)

Minnesota will probably lose a seat, although it might be able to prevent that.

Missouri, likewise, will probably, although not certainly, lose a seat.

New Jersey will lose a seat.

New York, which previously appeared in peril of losing two seats, now may lose just one, although it may be pretty close if people migrate out of the state following the financial sector collapse.

Ohio is locked in to losing two seats.

Pennsylvania will lose one seat, and is not completely out of the woods for losing a second.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Long article. Very interesting. Better keep the 50 state strategy going.

The fight to watch is how the districts change. Gerrymandering anyone?? Better work hard for Democratic Governors and state legislators in the 2010 elections.

[Kolesar]

1. GOPs are going to raise $ millions to knock out Ohio Sec'y of State Jennifer Brunner

2/3 of the redistricting vote is by the Governor, Auditor, and Secretary of State. The GOPs hold the Auditor's position right now. I expect that Governor Strickland will get reelected, by the 'pukes are going to throw everything they have at Brunner.

This will determine the districts in Ohio.

Not to mention that Jennifer Brunner has been great as SOS. She has been a national inspiration.

Please fund her: http://www.jenniferbrunner.com/

[Are_grits_groceries]

2. I wasn't sure who did the redistricting everywhere.

I will donate to her campaign. Put up a separate thread about this.
DUers need to know about that part of her duties and what she did in
2008 if they don't know!