Dogs That Didn't Bark

[babylonsister]

Dogs That Didn't Bark
Ed Kilgore

It's traditional on the last day of the year to compose lists of notable political developments or personages; J.P. Green's list of those who deserve a New Year's toast is a good example, as is Mike Thomasky's "Worst Americans" list.

I thought it might be interesting to list some widely expected political developments of 2008 that didn't happen. I've had some advice from friends on this subject, which I greatly appreciate.

In roughly chronological order, Dogs That Didn't Bark included, among others:

Barack Obama is a media-driven flash-in-the-pan whose presidential candidacy will be quickly crushed by Hillary Clinton.

Republicans are desperate enough to remain in power that they will toss social conservatives under the bus and go with a presidential nominee like Rudy Giuliani (or, later on, a vice-presidential nominee like Joe Lieberman or Tom Ridge or Condi Rice).

John Edwards' big head start in Iowa, his netroots support, his "southernness," and his careful positioning to the left of Clinton and Obama will enable him to emerge as the "true progressive" candidate and benefit from doubts about his rivals.

The "front-loading" of the primary/caucus schedule means you don't have to win IA or NH anymore.

Ron Paul's internet-based "revolution" will be the surprise story of the Republican nominating contest.

Al Gore will eventually be drawn into the 2008 race.

Once Hillary Clinton loses a contest, her "inevitability" will vanish and her candidacy will quickly collapse.

Barack Obama's loss in New Hampshire will send his candidacy into a death-spiral.

The "Bradley Effect" means that Barack Obama will always underperform expectations.

more...

http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/strategist/2008/12/dogs_that_didnt_bark.php

[elocs]

1. The Gore entering the race was one claim that many here at DU refused to let go.

There was no way to convince them. Logic and common sense did not matter. Along with that are the ones who endlessly predicted that the election would be stolen by the Republicans. They could not be shaken from that either.