What dem candidate currently running could turn some southern states around?

[WI_DEM]

Which of the Dems in the race could win, in your opinion, pick up a few southern states? or can any of them?

[wuushew]

1. Who cares, give me Ohio and 2008 is in the bag

the electoral cushion can come from the mountain west or southwestern states.

[Warpy]

2. Edwards

He's a southerner and his message is a populist one.

Populism gave us Democrats as the governor of Montana and the mayor of Salt Lake City. Those areas are bright red. Think of what Edwards might do in the pleasingly purple south.

[wuushew]

4. Why was Edwards not more popular in his home state?

n/t

[Kelly Rupert]

6. The only two people I've met who were represented by him

hated him. They were both indies. One said he was a "douchebag who made a bunch of smilin' promises and then sat down in DC and didn't do a thing but grin." The other called him a "do-nothing douchebag."

I can't vouch for his popularity, and I'm sure some Carolina DUers could explain better than I could. I'm just saying all I know.

[geardaddy]

11. Nice, limited vocab

apparently they like the word "d**chebag"

[Jamastiene]

25. He is popular where I live, but

then again, so was Al Gore. In my county, there is about a 60/40 ratio. In the western part of the state, I would imagine it is not as great. I like him.

[Clark2008]

27. One of the reasons I don't like Edwards was because of

his treatment - or, better stated, his lack of acknowledgment - of some of his constitutents I know.

It was Democrats in his own state that started calling him Senator Gone.

I think they liked the moral victory of his winning over the fundie there, but, after he was in office, they felt he didn't listen to them anymore.

[Warpy]

21. I don't think he was particularly populist then

and the right ran a very effective smear campaign.

[Radical Activist]

3. Barack Obama.

I know, I know, people say he can't win a Southern state because of racism. Well, consider that black turn out is still very low in the South. A 30% increase in black voter turn out could swing 5%-10% points in several southern states. Arkansas and Louisiana would be in play. Georgia and a couple others would be on the 2nd tier list.

[Kelly Rupert]

7. Obama's not polling particularly well among blacks, though.

It seems simply having dark skin isn't as much an issue for either race as conventional wisdom dictates.

[Radical Activist]

10. That's changing

and will change more. Black people know who Hillary Clinton is. Not everyone knows who Obama is yet. He'll have strong support in the black community as more people find out about him. That's why he's gaining rapidly in polls of black voters.

[cooolandrew]

20. He's tied in this poll, link...

Link...

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm

[Kelly Rupert]

5. I don't think we'll make any inroads in the south, really.

Not to be pessimistic on Dixie, but I'd rather we focus our efforts on turning the west-of-the-Mississippi blue.

[skipos]

8. Forget about any state that Wallace won

Look to the states that are trending Dem (VA, CO, NV) and the usual swing states (OH, FL).

Richardson would easily win NM. Clark beat Huckabee in an AR poll. Edwards wouldn't win NC, imo. Presidential candidates usually get a 10% boost and NC is 14% more likely to vote for the Repub in Pres races. WOuld Obama have an effect in VA and Ar, which have a higher % of blacks? Or Richardson in states like FL and NV that have a higher % of hispanics?

I think that Hillary would actually lose some blue states (Rudy beat her in PA and NJ polls) and not pick up any red ones.

[jaksavage]

9. We have won the last two

presidential elections
we are going to landslide them in 08
unless we get off our asses and impeach now!!!!!
Pelosi in 07

[Robeson]

12. Richardson. If Clark got in he could do well in a national election...

...though I think he would have a hard time securing the Democratic nomination.

[ThomWV]

13. If You Lived In Florida How Would You Feel About Rising Sea Level? Al Gore

[mmonk]

14. John Edwards more than likely.

Possibly Richardson.

[LSK]

15. John Edwards

[porphyrian]

16. Anyone who isn't full of shit.

The problem with the strategy of trying to appeal to the "Southern states" is that it presumes Southerners haven't yet caught on to the fact that everyone tries to run a Southern-friendly candidate just to get their votes. We have. Stop.

If you want the Southern votes, run someone who gets things done who isn't always selling us a line of shit for votes.

That's worth repeating, because some strategists apparently can't get it through their thick fucking heads. If you want the Southern votes, run someone who gets things done who isn't always selling us a line of shit for votes.

[Ghost in the Machine]

23. They think we're all like the Beverly Hillbillies or something.

but maybe I'm wrong... or not.

Now it's time to go visit cousin maw & uncle daddy





















:rofl:

[porphyrian]

28. Really. We've got them, too, but it's not like we're required to be the stereotype. - n/t

[Perky]

17. The only reason to care about the South is to put the GOP on the Defensive.

in their backyard. Florida is always in play and my sense is so is Virginia.

But what you want to do is make the GOP spend money where they do not want to..Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi and Tennessee

We make tghose stated marginally battlegound we winf up wionning Maine, Ohio, New Hampshire and New Mexico. That's the election


The Only candidate that can put thsoe states in a bit of play is Obama.

[Orangepeel]

18. Concentrate on the west. Pick the lower hanging fruit first.

It would be nice to win some southern states, but it doesn't make sense to concentrate on them. We have a better chance at picking up western states.

[Radical Activist]

22. The most Republican states are in the West

Utah and Idaho. The rest don't have the electoral votes that the South has.

[Orangepeel]

24. well, I wasn't talking about Utah and Idaho! :-)

I was talking about New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Arizona and even Montana. Unless McCain is the nominee, it makes more sense to try to get both Arizona and New Mexico than it does to try and get Georgia.

[Radical Activist]

29. Those two state only have 15 electoral votes combined.

The same as North Carolina alone. Less than Arkansas and Louisiana together. Much less than Florida. The few Western swing states just don't have the same population as the South. It may be another story after the next census, but there isn't much pay off right now in a western strategy.

[Orangepeel]

30. Those two have the same as Georgia, which is why I made that particular comparison

Yes, it is two states instead of one, but that doesn't mean it would take twice as much effort to win them.

A state by state strategy makes more sense than a regional strategy, whether it be a southern one or a western one. But, as a regional strategy, it doesn't make sense to go after the south before the west. There are more more potential votes there, but those votes are harder to get. (There are a lot of potential votes in Texas but we could concentrate ONLY on Texas and we aren't going to win it in the near future).

If we were likely to be "short" more than 15 or so electoral votes, then the hail mary strategy of, say, trying to win several southern states would be the best strategy. But we aren't. The most sensible strategy for allocating resources and "tailoring" of the platform is to keep hold of the states we are likely to win and go after the states that we are somewhat likely to win.

[cooolandrew]

19. Considering Obama turning out 20,000 for a rally in Texas. He's your man. =)

link...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y27Z6y7WelI

[Clark2008]

26. Currently? None of them.

You need to get white male voters and none of the front runners can do that. Hillary's a woman, Obama is not white and Edwards is too "pretty" for these swing-Bubba voters.

Richardson MIGHT have a chance - more so than the those three - but not much more.