Mortality Rate Rises in Post Communist Europe

[Ichingcarpenter]

Mass privatisation and the post-communist mortality crisis: a cross-national analysis

David Stuckler MPH a , Lawrence King PhD a, Prof Martin McKee MD b
Summary

Background
During the early-1990s, adult mortality rates rose in most post-communist European countries. Substantial differences across countries and over time remain unexplained. Although previous studies have suggested that the pace of economic transition was a key driver of increased mortality rates, to our knowledge no study has empirically assessed the role of specific components of transition policies. We investigated whether mass privatisation can account for differences in adult mortality rates in such countries.

Methods
We used multivariate longitudinal regression to analyse age-standardised mortality rates in working-age men (15—59 years) in post-communist countries of eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union from 1989 to 2002. We defined mass privatisation programmes as transferring at least 25% of large state-owned enterprises to the private sector within 2 years with the use of vouchers and give-aways to firm insiders. To isolate the effect of mass privatisation, we used models to control for price and trade liberalisation, income change, initial country conditions, structural predispositions to higher mortality, and other potential confounders.



Findings


Mass privatisation programmes were associated with an increase in short-term adult male mortality rates of 12·8% (95% CI 7·9—17·7; p<0·0001), with similar results for the alternative privatisation indices from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (7·8% <95% CI 2·8—13·0>). One mediating factor could be male unemployment rates, which were increased substantially by mass privatisation (56·3% <28·3—84·3>; p<0·0001). Each 1% increase in the percentage of population who were members of at least one social organisation decreased the association of privatisation with mortality by 0·27%; when more than 45% of a population was a member of at least one social organisation, privatisation was no longer significantly associated with increased mortality rates

http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(09)60005-2/fulltext

[Occam Bandage]

1. Unsurprising. Oligarchy has all the downsides of communism with none of the upsides. nt