A Troubling Level of Winter Violence in Afghanistan

[babylonsister]

http://www.vetvoice.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=2387

A Troubling Level of Winter Violence in Afghanistan
by: Brandon Friedman
Mon Jan 19, 2009 at 03:14:54 AM EST


Insurgents typically lay off during the coldest winter months. This is normal, and the "dormant" period often ends with what is referred to as a "spring offensive" when things begin to thaw. It's pretty easy to see over the years if you look at the casualty charts for Iraq and Afghanistan. What's striking this year, however, is that in Afghanistan, they're not slowing down--at all. This makes Afghanistan not only different from Iraq, but also unlike any previous year of the war in the country.

Take a look at this graph that shows coalition fatalities in Afghanistan in each year of the war for December and January--typically the calmest months of the year.



While the data here is limited, clearly, December 2008 and January 2009 were far more violent than the same period in any other year. Barring an unusually warm winter, this could represent more ferocity, more of a sense of purpose, and more resources than ever before on the part of the Taliban, al Qaeda, and their associated groups in Afghanistan.

Such a dramatic shift during the harshest winter months does not bode well for coalition forces during the coming year in Afghanistan. U.S. and NATO commanders should consider the implications here as they look toward spring.