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Larisa Alexandrovna: Iran hostage crisis update...Incredibly "Just On Time"

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kpete Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-23-07 07:55 PM
Original message
Larisa Alexandrovna: Iran hostage crisis update...Incredibly "Just On Time"
Iran hostage crisis update...

We now know that Iran has confirmed holding 15 UK sailors. But there are now allegations from the Iranian side that sailors and marines were in Iranian waters, something I suspected earlier:

"He said in a statement that he had delivered a "firm protest from Iran against the illegal entry of British sailors into Iranian territorial waters".

"They were arrested by border guards for investigation and questioning," the statement added. Mr Rahimpour accused British sailors of having illegally entered Iranian waters "a number of times".

Both the Royal Navy and Mrs Beckett denied that the eight sailors and seven marines had sailed into Iranian waters.

Mrs Beckett demanded the immediate and safe return of the personnel from HMS Cornwall, which has its home port in Plymouth."


Why do I believe Iranian accounts over UK/US accounts of what transpired? I am not a fan of Iran or its hard-line government. But I am also not a fan of pre-emptive and continued war either.

Remember, it is a well known and publicized fact that Iran had been conducting drills in its waters this past week. Tensions are high even with Iran's own patron's in Russia and China over issues involving uranium enrichment. There is a critical US/UK vote at the UN over the weekend. Yet Tehran decides to take hostages now?

Also consider this: if the British sailors were in fact in Iraqi water, as the Brits state, then are they also willing to say that Iran had entered Iraqi waters illegally? That is a claim the British have not made but it would have to be the case if the kidnapping happened in Iraqi water.

The most interesting thing here, for me as always, is timing and what I have already mentioned is the strong arming of the United Nations into tightening sanctions again Iran. The timing of the kidnapping is incredibly "just on time" for this crucial vote:

"The United States and Britain said today they are pushing for a Security Council vote Saturday to impose further sanctions on Iran, choosing not to work for unanimous council support or to wait for the Islamic Republic's president to make his case in person."


We should all be very concerned that as s domestics scandals control the national conversation, no one appears to be noticing what is a very serious situation.

http://www.atlargely.com/2007/03/iran_hostage_cr.html
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hang a left Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-23-07 07:57 PM
Response to Original message
1. Yes it is serious.
Let us hope for cool heads. Pray even to whoever.
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EVDebs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-23-07 08:03 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Our Lalarawraw is the best out there. Yes, cooler heads and hopefully wellinformed heads..
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yurbud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-23-07 08:12 PM
Response to Reply #1
6. whoever, who art wherever, whatever be thy name...
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Leopolds Ghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-24-07 01:05 AM
Response to Reply #6
14. ...thy system of government come, in Iraq as it is in Britain.
Give us this day our daily foreign policy crisis,
and forgive us our trespasses into neighboring territory,
as we forgive those who trespass into us.
lead us not into Iran, but deliver us from the Evil of the Bush Regime,
for thine is the system of government,
and the power, pursuant to a weekly committee meeting,
and the glory, not watery tarts wielding English weapons,
Amen.
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Land Shark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-23-07 08:07 PM
Response to Original message
3. Excellent observation Larisa, international news isn't stopping for US Attorneys
thanks for the post.
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-23-07 08:07 PM
Response to Original message
4. That's an excellent point made re: Iran being in Iraqi waters illegally but no one claiming it.
Curious, eh?

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seemslikeadream Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-23-07 08:10 PM
Response to Original message
5. yep
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yurbud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-23-07 08:13 PM
Response to Original message
7. if they think the public will buy this as a causus belli, they're nuts. They need a nuke attack
and maybe even that won't scare people stupid again.
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muriel_volestrangler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-23-07 08:26 PM
Response to Original message
8. No, the British have claimed the Iranians crossed into Iraqi waters
I was accompanying a Royal Marine patrol as it cruised Iraqi waters looking for suicide bombers trying to attack the two oil platforms that export 90 per cent of the country's oil. They were also hunting smugglers bringing arms and contraband into the country.

Until this point been our only contact with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards had been polite but stiff contacts over the radio. On Thursday, when HMS Cornwall spotted an Iranian ship on the Iraqi side of the waterway, she approached to warn them off. The Iranians slunk into the inky blackness without demur.

All changed dramatically yesterday morning when a 15 Royal Marines and Navy personnel, including one woman, approached a Japanese merchant ship suspected of smuggling second-hand cars into the country without paying tax. Suddenly their inflatables were surrounded by boats of the Revolutionary Guard and they were overpowered and taken into Iranian national waters.

Last night the British and Iranian Governments were locked in a diplomatic row as the dispute escalated. Britain protested that its personnel had been "kidnapped" while Iranian state television insist that British service members were "under arrest" for entering Iranian territory.

In London, the Iranian Ambassador was called in for a dressing down and told "in no uncertain terms" that the country expected its service personnel and equipment returned.

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article2387844.ece


The difference being the British gave a radio warning, rather than immediately trying to capture the Iranians.
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Gold Metal Flake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-23-07 08:27 PM
Response to Original message
9. So, do all of these Iranian military have sloppy maps?
Or do they have the same sort of modern GPS units that every other modern country on the planet have? I gotta assume the latter.

So, why no coordinates? Why are we still talking in vague generalities? What were the exact coordinates of where the sailors were picked up? Where is the video of the GPS unit and then the sailors? Why the fuck would anyone in the Gulf not document every aspect of any official engagement using at the least ordinary GPS and video crap available on Ebay or a a street bazaar?

If you don't pre-suppose the lies, get out of the game.
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JackRiddler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-23-07 09:03 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. Anyone know if there is a capacity for GPS jamming/hacking?
Isn't it all one grand GPS system? Kind of funny to think opposing armies would be using the same system. Who controls it?
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JackRiddler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-23-07 10:26 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. Answering my own question here...
From a cursory search (gps jamming hacking military) it looks like screwing with the signals would be a piece of cake for those sophisticated in electronic warfare.

http://gpsd.berlios.de/gps-hacking.html

How GPS Works

First, the basics of how GPS works. It depends on the fact that satellite orbits are very predictable. A GPS sensor is a specialized computer that knows about the orbits of GPS satellites, and in particular can predict exactly where each satellite will be at any given time with respect to the fixed Earth. (For those of you who enjoy such details, what they actually predict is each satellite's position with respect to an imaginary ellipsoid called the "WGS 84 geoid" which closely fits the mean sea level of Earth.)

There are presently 28 dedicated GPS satellites, 11,000 miles up in high-inclination orbits so that each one's trajectory wraps around the Earth like a ball of yarn as the planet spins beneath them. The inclinations are tuned to guarantee that about twelve will be visible at any given time from anywhere on Earth (coverage falls off a little at high latitudes). Additional GPS coverage is provided by a couple of maritime navigation satellites parked in geosynchronous orbits over the middle of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

You can look at a very nifty simulation of GPS satellite orbits. (Also includes GLONASS, the Russian military equivalent of GPS.) You can also look at pictures of GPS satellites and the control system.

Each satellite broadcasts identification pulses, each one including the clock time it was sent. A GPS receiver, picking up one of these pulses, can compare it to an internal clock and know the time it took to arrive. Multiplying by lightspeed gives the distance to the satellite. This starts to be useful when the GPS can get accurate timings to three or more satellites; at that point, computing the GPS's exact position with respect to the satellites becomes a relatively simple if tedious exercise in spherical trigonometry (which, fortunately, the GPS's firmware does for you).

That's the theory. In practice, the system has important limits. Anything, natural or artificial, that messes with the signal timings will degrade the accuracy of your position fix. Until it was abolished by Presidential decree in 2000, the most important limit was artificial, the so-called 'Selective Availability' feature. The satellites were programmed to introduce patterned timing jitter into the signals. The U.S. military knew the pattern, but nobody else did (or, at least, nobody who was admitting it).


http://www.hacking-gps.com/gps-notes/archives/2005/04/lowcost_gps_jam.php

Technical article on building a portable GPS jammer that affects the L1 carrier signal. This means that it would have no effect on the military L2 carrier or the P-code that that carries. It does however cast a huge cloud of doubt over the use of GPS in tracking tagged criminals.

http://www.computerworld.com/securitytopics/security/story/0,10801,77702,00.html

January 17, 2003 (Computerworld) -- Government officials and communications experts are assessing the public safety and security implications of a newly posted online article that provides directions for making cheap devices that can jam Global Positioning System (GPS) signals.

Information in the article that appears in the current issue of the online hacker magazine Phrack potentially puts at risk GPS devices used for commercial navigation and military operations, authorities said.

The Phrack article provides a detailed guide to building a low-cost, portable GPS jammer out of components that can be easily obtained from electronics supply houses. According to the article, the "onslaught of cheap GPS-based navigation (or hidden tracking devices) has made it necessary for the average citizen to take up the fine art of electronic warfare." Electronics and GPS experts who read the article this week called it technically competent and said amateurs with a certain amount of technical skill could build a GPS jammer from the plans.

Although the article said the jammer is designed to work only against civil-use GPS signals broadcast on the frequency of 1575.42 MHz and not the military frequency of 1227.6 MHz, James Hasik, an Atlanta-based consultant and author of the book The Precision Revolution: GPS and the Future of Aerial Warfare, disagreed. (...)

http://www.fuhs.de/en/news/sathack.shtml

Press Release 03.04.2003
'Coalition Guidance Systems Compromised'

The explosion of an alleged allied forces so-called smart bomb on a market place in Baghdad where about 50 civilians were killed could have been caused by the deliberate jamming of the guidance system by a GPS jammer. This is the opinion of the internationally well-known security consultant Howard Fuhs. ‘This incident is similar to the bombing of the Chinese embassy during the Kosovo conflict’, Fuhs said. ‘It is a safe assumption that the error was caused by GPS jamming transmitters and not through navigational errors.’

Fuhs maintains that not only is the jamming of GPS signals a threat to allied forces and civilians in Iraq, but there is also the danger of the enemy, even terrorists, hacking into satellite communication channels. Such hacking and jamming may explain the level of civilian casualties and attack from 'friendly' fire.

'I have seen not only ex-Soviet hand-held GPS jamming devices for sale on the internet, but details of how to make jammers out of cheap components. The threat of jamming is widely known, but rarely publicised'. See:
www.computerworld.com
www.ac11.org
www.space.com

What is even more disturbing is the possibility of satellites actually being taken over and their communication channels used for ill. 'Satellite security is at the same stage as computer security was ten years ago, with the 'owners' in denial. Usually, encryption is either weak or non-existent, in the belief that little-known modulation types are sufficient security. This is palpably untrue. There is no modulation type that cannot be decoded with money to buy the equipment. In some cases, sufficient wattage is all that is needed to open up the controls. (...)

http://www.computerworld.com/mobiletopics/mobile/story/0,10801,65096,00.html

Pentagon is probably jamming GPS in Afghanistan, experts say
Bob Brewin

October 26, 2001 (Computerworld) -- The U.S. Defense Department has probably been selectively jamming signals from the Global Positioning System (GPS) in Afghanistan since the start of the air campaign earlier this month, according to nonmilitary GPS experts.

The experts emphasized that the jamming in Afghanistan will have no effect on civilian users, including airlines, which increasingly rely on GPS for transoceanic navigation. Signals from the GPS satellite system available to civilian users provide an accuracy of 36 meters or better, while separate, encrypted military signals used to guide so-called smart bombs in Afghanistan provide accuracy within 6 meters, according to Richard Langley, a professor of geodesy and precision navigation at the University of New Brunswick. Langley's Web site plots the GPS military signal over Kabul as of Oct. 11.

Langley said the Pentagon has developed the capability to jam civilian GPS signals within a specific targeted area and could easily deny the 36-meter-accuracy civilian signal to the Taliban forces without interfering with users in other areas of the world. Depending on whether the Pentagon, which developed and operates the 28-satellite GPS constellation, uses airborne or ground jammers, this could deny the signal to the Taliban over a wide area, with some of the jamming potentially spilling over into Pakistan.

http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2005/04/universal_autom.html

GPS, my behind. Who needs to hack those tamperproof big brother GPS boxes when it's much easier to jam the weak satellite signals? Couple of hours of soldering and assembling, top, for an amateur.

Oh, and that will also screw up GPS navigation for everyone unlucky to be close by.

The law of unintended consequences strikes again.

Police comedy, the next round: the hunt for GPS jammers. "What's that in your pocket, boy?"

Where this silliness is going to end? EMP guns?

http://www.dailywireless.org/2006/10/08/satellite-jam/

Ground segments and communications links remain the most vulnerable components of space systems, susceptible to attack by conventional military means, computer hacking, and electronic jamming. A number of intentional jamming incidents targeting communications satellites have been reported in recent years and Iraq’s acquisition of GPS-jamming equipment for use against US GPS-guided munitions during Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003 suggests that jamming capabilities are proliferating.

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JackRiddler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-23-07 09:02 PM
Response to Original message
10. Britain has a history of invading other nations - modern Iran does not. n/t
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KiraBS Donating Member (195 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-24-07 04:26 PM
Response to Reply #10
20. The UK has it's own problems with Iran.....
http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,,2041685,00.html

My country has had disputes with Iran since the 1950's but it has never invaded or fought a war with them.
I am a little concerned about it becoming a problem, Iran taking hostages, maybe trying to provoke action, I hope it will speed up our withdrawal from Iraq.
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JackRiddler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-24-07 04:43 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. I think UK/US preparing & backing the coup of 1953 is a form of invasion. n/t
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KiraBS Donating Member (195 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-24-07 06:56 PM
Response to Reply #21
23. Probarbly it was
but the British have not seriously, agressively responded and there has been serious hatred towards
the UK from Iran for decades. I can't see any reason for us to go to war with Iran, despite the nuclear ambitions, the public will never support further war and if those Naval Officers are killed, the support and trust in our government will get even lower.
To me it makes little sense, the Britain would want to provoke a war right now, when we are preparing to withdraw and Tony Blair has three months left in office. Most of his party want him gone sooner because they have local elections in May and he is damaging them badly.
They majority of the British public have been against this war from the start and the more that our troops die and the worse the anger gets. I have never meet another British person that supports this war, everyone from the ladies at the bus stops, to the railway maitainance workers, to parish priests, pastors, vicars and newsagents is against this and always was.
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JackRiddler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-24-07 08:13 PM
Response to Reply #23
27. Well if Iranians are "aggressive" to the British
Then it has to do with the history of British imperialism: specifically, the 1953 coup d'etat against Mossadegh, backed by UK, US and Anglo-American Petroleum, and the support for the Shah until 1979.
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ptolle Donating Member (423 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-25-07 11:27 AM
Response to Reply #20
30. there's that
there's that and, my first reaction was that maybe tony's poodlehood( or would that be poodleness?) was being questioned and he just felt a need to help the chimperor gin up a case for some sort of military action against the Iranians.Or I may just be being cynical,not that there's a justification for that or anything.
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farmbo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-23-07 10:31 PM
Response to Original message
13. US geo-synchronous satellites and GPS would show if Iran was in Iraqi waters...
These photos arrays, which the CIA and/or NSA already has, would put the issue to rest immediately. Yet they aren't being released.

So why not? If they showed the Iranians in Iraqi territorial waters, the crisis would be over. Unless, of course, someone WANTS the crisis to continue.

Could it be that the Brits were in the wrong?

(Just asking is all).
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yurbud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-24-07 03:09 AM
Response to Reply #13
15. does it really matter? the brits could have been at a football game in manchester
if they want to use it to start the war they will try whatever the facts actually are.
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JackRiddler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-24-07 04:46 PM
Response to Reply #13
22. Hardly...
At this point any claims including evidence presented by either side as to the location of the UK boat crew is going to be disputed.

Now if the Andromedans land and settle the question, that's a different matter.
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CGowen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-24-07 11:34 AM
Response to Original message
16. Can you trust the Defense Ministry? And who is the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070323/ap_on_re_eu/british_seized_iran


Britain's Defense Ministry said the Royal Navy personnel were "engaged in routine boarding operations of merchant shipping in Iraqi territorial waters," and had completed a ship inspection when they were accosted by the Iranian vessels.




Cmdr. Kevin Aandahl of the Fifth Fleet said the British crew members were intercepted by several larger patrol boats operated by Iranian sailors belonging to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, a radical force that operates separately from the country's regular navy.
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Octafish Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-24-07 11:38 AM
Response to Reply #16
17. Bush and Blair aren't trustworthy at all.
In fact, monkey and poodle lied the USA and UK into an illegal and immoral war over phony WMD threat claims.

The result? Maybe 600,000 dead human beings.

For what? Halliburton. BP. Exxon...
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rman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-24-07 11:46 AM
Response to Original message
18. Neither govt is very thrustworthy..
But i'd have to take the side of the less harmful one, the one that has no nukes, the one that isn't invading the middle east. The one that isn't looking for a pretext to invade yet another ME country, the one that doesn't have a record of staging events that serve as a pretext to war.
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KiraBS Donating Member (195 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-24-07 04:17 PM
Response to Original message
19. I believe the sailors and the Commandent of HMS Cornwall
He does not want 15 died Naval Officers.
You also have to bare in mind these men and women were in a dingy and not exactly threatening.
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-24-07 07:00 PM
Response to Reply #19
25. Not threatening to who exactly
If they were in Iranian waters, they were violating international law.
That alone is a threat. This is provocation plain and simple.
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KiraBS Donating Member (195 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-25-07 09:10 AM
Response to Reply #25
28. If....
Not if it was unintentional... I don't think that there is a rope line or clear marker to say where the exact line is, in must happen all the time on that stretch of water. They didn't fire at anyone or do anything that should have provoked an arrest, other then supposedly going over an invisible line. Have a look at the type of boats they are in, they are not very well protected for people committing a deliberate act of aggression. These 15 officers are pawns in someone else's political games. If they did not enter Iranian waters then the Iranian patrols invaded Iraqi waters, which is a more worrying. If the Iranian's keep these officers in custody,it will most likely delay our withdrawal from Iraq,with was about to begin and if this does get very nasty, it is our government that is likely to fall not Iran's.
This is very, very serious, that the press are being very low key and not giving much in the way of editorial comment.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6492489.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6492705.stm

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,2042328,00.html#article_continue
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-25-07 11:19 AM
Response to Reply #28
29. FInd an Iranian source please
The Brits have been lying for 500 years.

Brits have been creating havoc in smaller boats for centuries.
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-24-07 06:59 PM
Response to Original message
24. Wag the fugging dog
Here we go again.
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SalmonChantedEvening Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-24-07 07:43 PM
Response to Original message
26. This isn't something you'd do, knowing the repercussions,
for any other reason than it being Absolutely Necessary.

Arjemini-me may be nuts, but he ain't stupid.
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