I think we can expect abortion, as an issue, to come roaring back

[cali]

I believe that the repukes are going to pick up the flag of "right to life" and use it to rally the social conservative troops in a way we haven't seen for almost a decade. Of course, with that, the violence against clinics will again erupt.

Abortion is an easy rallying cry for the right, and much as many of us on the pro-choice side would like to believe it, public opinion is not firmly on our side. Public opinion is malleable and changeable.

[glowing]

1. Come armed with statistics. When Dems are in charge, less abortions are performed.

Women are better able to access their medical needs, and its none of their business. Its about time we stick it out and let 1/2 of the world understand its none of their business (men).. and the few crazy fundie women they recruit.. to stay out of our private lives, unless they'd like govt scrutiny into their personal lives. Pro-Choice means having a clean, sterile, safe environment for medical procedures. Ending abortions in a legal manner increases new-borns thrown into trash cans and women dying from botched abortions. The reason abortion became legal was because of the unecessary deaths of women and babies.

[cali]

3. alas, statisics don't mean much accept to those wielding them in defense of their opinions

And you seriously underestimate the depth of this division if you think it's just a few fundie women. I'm in agreement with you about the importance of abortion being legal and accessible. Millions and millions are not.

[glowing]

4. Last stat I saw had the country at about 60% for legalized abortions.

Many women would choose not to have one, but believe the option should remain safe and legal in case. Its from there that the disagreements embroil.. teens: are a special uproar. I'm not sure why parents are so shocked to learn their children have have sex. I'm under a firm belief that giving them access to contraception and advice would help with the many unwanted pregnancies. My college was wonderful. Free birth control for a year w/ a free exam. AND a bag of condoms handed to each woman as we walked out the door. This was in South Carolina, before Bush took over. I wonder if they even have the clinic anymore? It was extremely popular.. not having to pay for b.c. was a major plus for many of us poor college students. It was nice being double armored. AND it was nice to know that having b.c. in a college town would prevent unwanted by-products of an unfortunate rape (those happen much too often in that environment).

They may try an re-ramp up, but the country dejected them and their single vote issue. As the elections were coming thru, the protesters were outside the clinics again. Smaller this time (I think they were being paid). I flicked them off every time. As soon as John McCain lost, they disappeared. In 2010, we won't be anywhere near out of the economic nightmare. Abortion will be the last thing even the fundies will protest... they'll be stocking up on their own piles of b.c. so they don't have another mouth to feed.

[cali]

6. look closer. I have.

Most polls show the divide closer than that, and they show a lot of support for restrictions on abortion. Here are some recent polls. And I think you're wrong about 2010.

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Neil Newhouse (R). Sept. 6-8, 2008. N=860 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.3.

.

"Which comes closest to your view on abortion: abortion should always be legal; should be legal most of the time; should be made illegal except in cases of rape, incest and to save the mother's life; or abortion should be made illegal without any exceptions?"

.

Always
Legal Legal
Most of
the Time Illegal
With a Few
Exceptions Illegal
Without
Exceptions Unsure
% % % % %
9/6-8/08
25 24 37 10 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Aug. 29-31, 2008. N=1,031 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.

.

"With respect to the abortion issue, would you consider yourself to be pro-choice or pro-life?"

.

Pro-choice Pro-life Unsure About
Terms (vol.) Mixed/Both/
Neither (vol.) Unsure


%
%
%
%
%


8/29-31/08
53
44
2
2
-


5/4-6/07
45
50
2
2
1


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Aug. 19-22, 2008. N=1,108 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3. Fieldwork by TNS. RV = registered voters

.

"Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases?"

.

Legal in
All Cases Legal in
Most Cases Illegal in
Most Cases Illegal in
All Cases Unsure
% % % % %
8/19-22/08 22 32 26 18 3
6/12-15/08 18 35 28 16 3
1/9-12/08 21 36 25 15 3
12/16-19/07
20 35 25 18 2
12/6-9/07
18 35 27 17 3
10/29 - 11/1/07 19 36 27 16 2
7/18-21/07 23 34 28 14 2
2/22-25/07
16 39 31 12 2
12/15-18/05
17 40 27 13 3
4/21-24/05
20 36 27 14 3
12/04 21 34 25 17 3
5/04 23 31 23 20 2
1/03 23 34 25 17 2
8/01 22 27 28 20 3
6/01 22 31 23 20 4
1/01 21 38 25 14 1
9/00 RV 20 35 25 16 3
7/00 20 33 26 17 4
9/99 20 37 26 15 2
3/99 21 34 27 15 3
7/98 19 35 29 13 4
8/96 22 34 27 14 3
6/96 24 34 25 14 2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey. July 31-Aug. 10, 2008. N=2,905 adults nationwide. MoE ± 2. Aug. 2007 survey conducted by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas.

.

"Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases?" Options rotated

.

Legal in
All Cases Legal in
Most Cases Illegal in
Most Cases Illegal in
All Cases Unsure


%
%
%
%
%


7/31 - 8/10/08
17
37
26
15
5


6/18-29/08
19
38
24
13
6


11/07
18
33
29
15
5


10/17-23/07
21
32
24
15
8


8/1-18/07
17
35
26
17
5


2/16 - 3/14/07
15
30
30
20
5


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Time Poll conducted by Abt SRBI. July 31-Aug. 4, 2008. N=808 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

.

"Which of these positions best represents your views about abortion? A woman should be able to get an abortion if she wants one in the first three months of pregnancy, no matter what the reason. Abortion should be legal ONLY in certain circumstances, such as when a woman's health is endangered or when the pregnancy results from rape or incest. Abortion should be illegal in all circumstances, even if the mother's life is in danger." Options rotated

.

Always Legal in
First 3 Months Legal in Certain
Circumstances Illegal in All
Circumstances No Answer/
Unsure
% % % %
7/31 - 8/4/08 46 40 10 4
http://www.pollingreport.com/abortion.htm

[glowing]

13. Perhaps all around education needs to happen. Abstinence only programs

don't work and too many females aren't getting proper acess to information or medical needs. I think I rememer seeing that younger females aren't as apt to defend abortion because they always had access to it. I'm in the mind-set that its none of my business what another person chooses. Many women get breast implants... apparently they aren't happy with what God gave them... should we outlaw that procedure. I think its time to talk about sex again. 8yrs has been hard on women.. bush is an ass.

[muriel_volestrangler]

33. So that's typically a majority for 'legal most of the time'

including the 'always legal' figures. So what's your point?

[Lasher]

2. You're right. What else have they got?

They could say they're fiscal conservatives and they're good for the economy but there's not many people stupid enough to buy that snake oil anymore.

[ThomWV]

30. Guns, Gays, Mexicans, Turbins, Oil, France, Creeping Socialism, and Newt for President

[zazen]

5. I think the biggest threat to O's safety will come from these fanatics

I've thought the same thing about their rallying cry, and I'm finding I have a similar "I can't watch" feeling that I had when W opened his mouth, but this time it's when O walks through a crowd.

I have such a strong premonition that the self-righteousness of the antichoice zealots will propel more than one to try, especially because, while this cause no doubt involves people who have sincerely strong feelings about the issue, it also attracts the fundie men desperately looking for some internal self-validating mantra to suppress and deny their various "secrets." There's the saying "we're only as sick as our secrets." I would modify that to say, we're as crazy as the shame and energy we expend to deny our secrets, and what better public expiation of these fanatics' secret sin than targeting the most transformative leader in generations. And they'll start warming up on the poor souls at the clinics.

[Thegonagle]

7. The violence against clinics is an ongoing issue...

The crazies will be crazy.

http://www.startribune.com/local/east/38230064.html?elr=KArksUUUU

Perhaps if we undo some of those Reaganomic spending cuts on mental health, it will get better again.

[depakid]

8. The issue is reproductive freedom & birth control

Framed HONESTLY -a large mnajority of Americans agree with choice.

Restricting or banning contraception- intrusion into peoples' bedrooms- is really what these folks are all about.

Always has been.

Though it looks at this point like they may not succeed in overruling http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Griswold_v._Connecticut">Griswold v. Connecticut make no mistake- that's their dream.

[cali]

10. They won't, in the next few years, overturn Griswold or Roe

but no, a large majority does not agree with choice. I'm sorry but polls- and that includes well framed polls- don't support your contention. Yes, the majority supports choice, but the majority also supports restrictions on abortion. We are divided on the issue.

[depakid]

15. Sorry, but you're incorrect. A substantial majority of Americans ARE pro choice

provided that you're looking valid and reliable research.

Check out Pew for example-

Overturn Roe v. Wade:

No 65% Yes 29%

http://people-press.org/commentary/pdf/119.pdf

Or the GSS:

Description of the Variable

251. Do you think abortions should be legal under any
circumstances, legal only under certain circumstances, or never
legal under any circumstances?

22.1 ALWAYS

68.9 SOMETIMES

9.0 NEVER

http://sda.berkeley.edu/sdasearch/

[cali]

21. I suggest you take a look at the polls I posted.

And take a look at the last poll you posted: 22 percent say always legal. nearly 70% say sometimes. And what does sometimes encompass? Well, it encompasses everything from only in the first trimester to only in cases of incest to only if the mother's life is physically endangered. And that makes it a completely useless poll for your purposes. And yes, most people do not want Roe overturned, but poll after poll shows substantial support for all kinds of restrictions.

[depakid]

26. As long as the central premise of Roe has broad support

the issue's a loser in most of the states.

Actually reproductive choice is now something "less" than a fundamental right- Roe is no longer "good law," thanks to Casey v. Planned Parenhood.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_Parenthood_v._Casey

Incidently, the Casey that case is the father of antichoice Democratic senator- which goes to show that not all Democrats are to be trusted with womens rights.

Even so- this is why there's been a need for over 25 years now to frame the issue correctly and honestly. Fundamentlaist Republicans are after more than abortion- they're after birth control and have proven that explicitly many times in the past 8 years.

If current law were repealed- then make no mistake- certain southern and lower midwestern states WOULD sverely restrict- or outlaw various means of birth control.

Just as they do- and not coincidentally, with sex toys.

Outside of the fundie nutters- a majority in those states won't support either of those things- though they might not say so in public.

But that's indeed what they'll get.

[Lil Missy]

9. Nope. They are neutered now. I think queers will be the next issue. And will fail.

We won.

They lost.

[cali]

11. that's naive as can be.

It's during the periods when they feel they're losing, that the issue ramps up and takes center stage. GLBT issues will continue to be a rallying point for social conservatives, but abortion will once again take center stage.

[Lil Missy]

14. I am very well naive in many ways. But I respectfully disagree with your premise.

They are totally fucked right now.

Abortion may take some air space, but Roe v. Wade is never going to be overturned. C'mon. Are they going to jail women, or give them the death penalty for having abortions?

Queers might give them some fodder for a while. But the bible belt is not running this country anymore.

Let's reassess this conversation a year from now, okay?

:hi:

[cali]

18. I'm not talking about Roe being overturned. I agree it's safe.

I'm talking about the right resuming the use of abortion as a rallying point.

I do agree that the Biblers are not in charge anymore, but again, that wasn't my point.

[Lil Missy]

23. Then, I guess I did not understand your point. And I am really naive.

You were suggesting that abortion would be their next rally cry. And we seem to agree that such a rally point is dead before it starts.

We also seem to agree that the Bible Bumpers are no longer in charge.

So where, specifically, do we disagree?

What was your point that I have apparently missed?

[cali]

28. That rallying cry is not dead among the social conservatives or

the repukes as a whole. And it could indeed flare up again as a major issue- as it did under Clinton.

[Lil Missy]

29. I am still working with your OP. Did you change the subject?

I thought we put the abortion argument to rest??

We won. They lost.

What is the rally cry between social conservatives and repukes that you refer to? And what is going to flare up again, as it did under Clinton?

What is the subject?

[H2O Man]

34. The subject of the OP

is that the very rightwing forces will use the emotions that they can instill in their base on the issue of abortion to regroup. I believe that Cali is saying that it will be used within the republican party, in their internal conflicts, to determine which branch of there party will "leade," and that it will be their rallying cry to identify the democrats as "sinful."

These positions are not in any way opposed to what you are saying. You are applying rational thought, and Cali is saying that the republicans are going to appeal to irrational, highly emotional thought.

[Lil Missy]

36. Yes, I think the right wing forces will create hysteria and division anyway they can.

I just think they are fucked on abortion and the Roe v. Wade argument.

That is why I say they will go after gays instead. (And they will lose that too.)

I have no doubt they will flip and flop like dying fish over something. I just don't think there is any reason to worry about it.

We won. They lost.

What can they do? Spend another 8 years to investigate his underwear? I don't think so. American people have lost tolerance for that shit. Ain't gonna happen. And we have the majorities now.

I really hope the repukes do appeal to the irrational. And continue to "baffle with bullshit." People are sick and tired of that crap, and it can only work in our favor.

:)

[H2O Man]

40. Right.

Despite all of their talk, when the republicans have been in power, they really didn't look to reverse Roe v Wade .... except stacking the US Supreme Court. But even that should be viewed in a larger context, because while the court has reversed some advances that were made in our society in the past, and chipped away at the Constitutional protections defined by the Bill of Rights, there was not the reversal of abortion rights that the right-wing republicans demanded.

This is the root of some of the divisions within their already diminished party. The religious right feels that it has been played by the party leadership. And I think that we will see this in the way that politicians such as Sarah Palin seek to gain control of their party in 2010 and especially 2012.

The issue of gay rights will be as important to them as abortion. One reason that you are correct is that issues such as gay marriage are going to be taking a higher level of visability at the state level, which leads directly to higher profile ederal court decisions. And, again, the right-wing will not want this to be a rational discourse -- they will resort to appeals to emotion, and try to define this as an attack on the American family, rather than what it actually is: a way to strengthen the American family, by recognizing the rights of all family members.

As we witnessed last fall, people like Palin will attempt to incite irrational fear of "others," which far too often are a non-too-subtle appeal to hatred and violence. And for that reason, we need to focus on the rational, and not allow the national discussion/debate to become an emotional powder keg.

[Lil Missy]

42. You give Palin a lot more credit than I do.

I wish she would STFU now, and wait till 2010 to prove what an idiot he is. I want them to run her!

If she keeps this up, including her book deal, even the freepers are going to know what an imbecile she is before 2010 even gets here!

[H2O Man]

43. I think that she

is the most shallow, ignorant, incapable "politician" on the national stage. But I do not underestimate the potential when such a person calls upon the darker impulses of a segment of society that is scared of what they see around them. Still, I view their actions as providing us a wonderful opportunity to use their positions to advance our own. For that reason, I hope Sarah continues to speak her mind(lessness).

[B Calm]

12. They have had a conservative Supreme Court for how many years now?

[cali]

16. what does that have to do with my post?

I'm not claiming Roe is in danger of being overturned. I'm stating that abortion will once again become a rallying point for the SCs as it was when Clinton was president.

Oh, and they've had a divided court when it comes to abortion.

[B Calm]

19. I agree they'll use their old tired standby, abortion to rally their religious

base. Right wingers have a tendency to be blind. I'm pointing out the obvious

[Warren DeMontague]

17. Most Americans are PRO-CHOICE. This is a loser issue for them, just like Terri Schiavo.

Of course, I fear you'll be right about outbreaks of violence- we've already seen a nutjob plow his SUV into a planned parenthood in the past few days; but again, that is a measure of frustration and marginalization on the part of an increasingly isolated and politically powerless minority.

Maybe this time around, the press will call the would-be clinic commandos what they are- domestic terrorists.

[KharmaTrain]

20. It's All A Money Grab Now...

The thing that is hurting the GOOP the most is their lack of cash. One of the biggest reasons they lost as bad as they did was Democrats not only outraised them but that the "traditional" GOOP donors kept their wallets and purses closed. This desperate party will be looking to whip up emotions to shake loose change and a woman's right to chose is always a big money maker.

This is more noise in their shrinking echo chamber. Yes, it will whip up emotions, but those emotions have been toyed with consistantly for the past 30 years. The GOOP had the numbers in 2006 to all but end Roe v. Wade and they didn't. They know how big of a money pot this issue is with the fundies...and now I expect they'll claim to go back to their "traditional" values in efforts of sucking up to the bible money belts.

[TWiley]

22. I think lots of non-sensible noise IS next up.

The fundamentalists are livid. Obama will end torture and thus endanger THEIR safety, the "sanctity" of marriage will be under attack, faith-based initiatives will take a pay cut (no more church school building I hope), the reduction of corporate welfare, and the increase of social services, and (gasp) the use of math, logic, and science instead of religion to formulate policy.

They will fight tooth and nail. No lie is too great. Fundamentalists are trained to believe that the end ALWAYS justifies the means. Armageddon baby !

[cali]

24. I agree.

They perceive Obama as a huge threat- if not the actual anti-christ.

[depakid]

27. And this is exactly where we as rational people want to pin them

relegate them to the fringe (where they belong- and where they've remained in most other western nations). NEVER enable or legitimize their "views."

Prompt them into saying birth control = abortion. They'll do it (usually via the morning after pill, but it's not much of a leap from there to other more common contraceptives).

[Arkansas Granny]

25. I expect that you are right. That's one issue that tried and true for

rallying the base. Of course, they don't want to completely overturn Roe v. Wade, they just want to add some more restrictions so those on the right can feel that they are doing something. I don't know about other parts of the country, but I know people who base their votes on this one issue alone.

[mnhtnbb]

31. I wouldn't be surprised to see abortion rates climb. A lot of families

faced with bad economy, job layoffs, job insecurity may decide that going forward with an unplanned
pregnancy might not be the best decision.

[Le Taz Hot]

32. And I'll be on the front lines for pro-choice

as I have since 1972. Again. Anyone of the "what-have-you-done-for-me-lately" generation want to join in and help, the Boomers arms are getting really tired from holding up those signs. We could use some relief.

[Ilsa]

37. I hear you. I was too young in the early 1970's. But I took up my

posters in the late 1980s and early 1990s. We haven't needed to do that here where I live since there is no "abortion clinic." But more younger women (and MEN) need to take up the cause with us.

[DailyGrind51]

35. Roe v. Wade survived Republican domination of all 3 branches of government.

Roe v. Wade is here to stay!

[cali]

38. not the point.

I'm simply saying that the issue is about to be picked up again big time by the repukes.

[B Calm]

41. We know what you are saying!

It's just that these republican wedge issues are losing their worth as people are starting to wake up!

[spanone]

39. i expect the thugs to be as divisive and obstructive as ever, maybe even more so

[bulloney]

44. It already has in my church.

For three straight weeks our priest has addressed it in his sermon, going as far as he can without coming out and attacking Obama's position or telling you that you can't be Catholic and support Obama.

Today was the best one yet. He said that there's no way you can rank war, the economy or any other issue above the issue of preserving life. He's energizing the Right to Life nazis with every sermon. I dread seeing how bold and hateful they'll be come 2012, or even the congressional races in 2010.

[varelse]

45. Well, yes

Social conservatism just about all they have left. The Republican party no longer has a good reputation with fiscal conservatives - they squandered that along with our federal budget surplus, over the last 8 years.

That's bad news for them, because there's every indication that social conservatism will eventually die out (quite literally) within a generation or two.

[Still Sensible]

46. It's certainly possible, the GOP obviously is desperate

for issues. I know it won't be a very popular position here, but I still believe it would behoove democrats and the country to find some common ground and get this issue for the most part off the table, It may not be possible.

On one side you have a small but very vocal group of people that believe abortion is murder under any and all circumstances. On the other side, you have a small and very vocal group of people that believe abortion is an inalienable right under any and all circumstances. Each of these most extreme points of view enjoy a like number of people who lean strongly in their direction.

Then there is a great middle, which polls seem to show tend to support the right to abortion, but not in an absolute and unlimited way.

Is there common ground somewhere?