MarketWatch: Grim Domestic Product

[marmar]

Economy in free fall in fourth quarter
Worst quarter since early 1980s, and more to come

By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy contracted violently in the fourth quarter, with gross domestic product falling at its fastest pace in more than 25 years, economists said ahead of what promises to be a grim week of economic news.

"Real economic activity fell off a cliff during the fourth quarter, producing a sharp drop in employment, output and spending," wrote economists at Wachovia.

And the worst part is that it's not over. Economists expect another huge decline in the first quarter, with a smaller contraction in the second quarter.

GDP is expected to have fallen at a 5.5% annualized rate in the final three months of last year, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by MarketWatch. That would be the biggest decline since the 6.4% drop in early 1982 and one of the worst quarters in the post-World War II era.

The government will release its first estimate of fourth-quarter GDP on Friday, the culmination of a very busy week on the economic calendar.

Other major releases will include durable-goods orders for December, home sales for December, and consumer confidence surveys for January. .......(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Economy-free-fall-fourth-quarter/story.aspx?guid=%7BD87827B0%2DF739%2D42A7%2DA123%2DAEB36F40D99B%7D

[Mike 03]

1. It's not over, and these posts are to be appreciated. TY. NT.

[Ex Lurker]

2. We are in a depression, no doubt about it n/t

[Igel]

6. Not yet.

Wait for it.

The rates of change are high, and the differences in rates of change wrt time were high. They're like near the beginning of the Great Depression. So people assume that that's sufficient.

But the Depression wasn't marked so much by how quickly things got bad as by how bad things got and how long they stayed bad. We're not there yet, and predicting that the climb in unemployment will continue unabated is risky. It might, or it might not.

Look at it this way: If you fall off of Mt Everest you experience a rapid acceleration, and then a high velocity. If you fall off of a 20 story building, you experience the same acceleration, and probably reach nearly the same terminal velocity. So comparisons between falling off Mt. Everest and falling off a tall building aren't inappropriate, just misleading. Fall off the roof of your car and you experience the same acceleration, but never reach the same velocity. Still, a breathless reporter covering the fall off of your car could say, "And he fell with Mt-Everest-like acceleration." Eh. What makes the fall off of Mt. Everest so much more stunning isn't the acceleration, or even the velocity reached, but the distance travelled. Some parts of the US were in bad economic shape before; others aren't. Most have quite a ways to fall.

[madrchsod]

3. i was out and about today spending money....

lot`s of people at the mall and the other stores were busy...i did notice
"plato`s closet" had tons of clothes for sale. sucks i could`t find anything i liked

[OhioChick]

4. K&R

:kick:

[whistle]

5. Let's do the math, net GDP was projected to hit $14,714 billion for Aug 2009

...but without help it will miss that mark by either remaining flat at $14,488 billion or even declining if the repukes have their way. Take into consideration that price inflation will further erode GDP we are in for a very rough year.

For every $100 billion lost in GDP will cost Americans 778,000 jobs. See where that takes reTHUGS!