For those of you who are "excited" about Obama's 4% advantage in favorability over Clinton

[WorldResident]

Has Obama ever faced a credible candidate and had to defend himself in a competitive election? Trust me, any Joe Blow could have beat Alan Keyes handily in Illinois.

As for the other candidates, let's see ...

John Edwards - had to face Lauch Faircloth, the Democratic Primary field in 2004, and then the Bush/Cheney team in the general election.

Hillary Clinton - had to face her Republican opponents in 1993/1994/1995 over health care, and then Rudy Giuliani and Rick Lazio in 2000.

The supporters of Obama who parade around his favorability number in the low 50s seem to forget one thing actually, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards have had favorability numbers much greater than that in the past (Edwards in the low 60s and Clinton in the low 70s). Obama's numbers will come down and he will have to get dirty in order to win. Edwards and Clinton have both experienced the negative attacks, but the question is whether Obama can handle this.

[BeyondGeography]

1. He arrived in Chicago, tough political town, 20 years ago not knowing anybody

and look where he is today...his story suggests you underestimate him at your peril.

[Cameron27]

5. Obama's speaking live right now

on the Democratic debate on health care.

[BeyondGeography]

7. Thanks...but my kids have control of the tube right now

so I'm here.

Another point: Obama has been through a real election with a real competitor; ex-Panther Bobby Rush pounded him good in a congressional race in 2000, labelling him as an out-of-touch Harvard elitist (subtext, not black like us) and he lost by a 2-to-1 margin. Obama laughed it off, reached out to Bobby, who endorsed him in January after being heavily courted by the Clintons. He could have chosen to be life-long enemies with Rush and marginalized himself in the process over hurt feelings; he took the opposite course and, voila, Rush is now running interference for him in the same parts of the black community that were the source of his victory over Obama seven years ago.

The political skills are obviously there.

[Cameron27]

9. It's not on tv...

you can watch it here:

http://thinkprogress.org/

There's a thread going with it on GD right now--can't link to it for some reason.

He's got to get up to speed with formulating a complete health care policy, but I have to say, he's a force to be reckoned with just by speaking.

He's taking questions right now.

[rooshab]

2. Where?

Are you talking about nationally or within their state? I am sure Obama is higher in Illinois and Clinton and Edwards are not quite as high nationally.

[skipos]

3. Some are excited by the fact that Obama draws 20,000 people

Some don't think Hillary would be the best President of all of our candidates. Some feel she isn't unelectable, but just one of the least electable of our candidates.

Please tell me if you notice a trend here...

This is from Rasmussen, the most accurate pollster in 2006 (and 2004, if you agree with the official results).

Thompson (44%) Clinton (43%) CLINTON LOSES BY 1%
Thompson (37%) Obama (49%) OBAMA WINS BY 12%

Brownback (41%) Clinton (46%) CLINTON WINS BY 5%
Brownback (34%) Obama (49%) OBAMA WINS BY 15%

Gingrich (43%) Clinton (50%) CLINTON WINS BY 7%
Gingrich (38%) Obama (48%) OBAMA WINS BY 10%

Giuliani (49%) Clinton (41%) GIULIANI WINS BY 8%
Giuliani (46%) Obama (40%) GIULIANI WINS BY 6%

McCain (48%) Clinton (41%) MCCAIN WINS BY 7%
McCain (44%) Edwards (45%) EDWARDS WINS BY 1%
McCain (44%) Obama (44%) TIED

Clinton's fav/unfavorable ratings (50/48) are worse Obama (54/36), but her name recognition is very high. Compare that to Rudy and McCain, who have very high name recognition, but have fav/unfav ratings that absolutely smoke Hillary's.

Obama isn't "only 4%" better than HRC, his unfavorables are 12% less. She has no room to improve. Only 2% don't have an opinion about her.

[Warren Stupidity]

4. Hmmm..

Not a big Obama fan, but I have a bit of a problem with your evidence backing up your claim.

1) the Clinton healthcare debacle: you might want to not bring that up.
2) Clinton did not run against Giuliani as Giuliani pulled out. Instead she ran atainst the hapless Lazio, who might as well have been Alan Keyes, and then who in 2006? oh yes John Spencer on the Republican ticket, who does not even rise to the Lazio or Keyes level.
3) Kerry and Edwards did not run a particularly good campaign.

When I look at candidates in the primary the first thing I look at is where they stand on the issues that are important to me. All other considerations take a back row. I realize that this is not what the media thinks we should be doing to pick candidates. I guess I am just old fashioned.

[davsand]

6. Obama is a force of nature.

Keep on underestimating him. It works in his favor and that is just fine.

Obama won a contested PRIMARY to get into that Senate race against Keyes. Obama beat a multi-term Illinois Comptroller, and he did it by running a smart campaign where it would garner the most votes. My husband was in that other campaign along with several other good people, and I'll tell you that Obama faced a strong organization and beat it.

Obama presents a profile that I think the voters are looking for right now. He is the "Anti-Bush" in almost every way, and historically that image of direct contrast with the two term incumbent is what wins.

Time will tell, I guess, but you just keep on underestimating him. Let me know how it goes for ya...



Laura

[TwilightGardener]

10. Agree--he is the Anti-Bush, and will stand the best chance of defeating

any 'Pug they can throw at us, since all of them have been embracing the Shrub (McCain, literally!) on most of his policies and the war--though not on Gonzales--they're distancing themselves from Chimpy on that. Obama comes off as honest, genuine, and cerebral--people of either party will respond to that combination.

[Lobster Martini]

8. Discrepancy between two Rassmussen Reports polls

One Rasmussen Reports poll gives Obama a 4% advantage in favorability, and a second Rasmussen Reports poll shows Clinton beating Obama by 5% in the primary. The poll that gives Clinton the primary win is only five days old. Go figure.

[skipos]

14. There is no discrepency, imo

She generally leads the primary polls, but doesn't have the best fav/unfavs. Two different things.

[blm]

11. Has TeamClinton ever taken on TeamBush head to head? The only time I can think of was

on the Clintons trashed the White House lie, and that went on for many MONTHS.

[WorldResident]

12. 1992?

n/t

[blm]

13. That was a whole other TeamBush. And a whole other media climate.

The only matchup I've ever seen of this TeamBush and TeamClinton was over the trashed White House lie.

That story got blown up completely and lasted for many months. And there was no other issue in the last 8 years where TeamClinton ever challenged TeamBush. Not even to help the Dem party candidates running in 2002 and 2004.

In fact, they were curiously silent as Clinton was blamed for 9-11 and Iraq. Bill didn't defend himself on Bin Laden till last September when the 9-11 movie came out. I wonder why he waited so long.