Iran's nuclear terrorism fears

[FarCenter]

By Kaveh L Afrasiabi

"The commission believes that unless the world community acts decisively and with greater urgency, it is more likely than not a weapon of mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack somewhere in the world by the end of 2013."

This statement was made recently by Graham Allison, one of the authors of "World at Risk", a report by the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, during his testimony before the US Congress. Sounding alarms about the growing risks of a nuclear terrorist attack on the United States, the report gloomily states that America's "margin of safety has decreased".

The comprehensive report provides a list of practical steps to reverse this unwanted situation. For example, making sure North Korea is de-nuclearized while Iran "must not be allowed to cross its nuclear goal-line".

The trouble with this analysis, however, is that its assumption of an Iranian march toward nuclear weapons simply lacks empirical substantiation. Even the US's own intelligence community does not buy it. The fact that there has been no revision of the conclusions of the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, which stated that Iran had shelved its weapons program in 2003 shortly after the toppling of Saddam Hussein, diminishes the fact that Iran's program is completely peaceful today.

In light of an upcoming meeting of the "Iran Six" nations on Iran's nuclear program in February, it is puzzling why US nuclear experts continue to sing a different tune than US intelligence officials, who obviously have more access to vital information about Iran. At the same time, such semi-alarmist reports about nuclear terrorism are bound to send shivers into Shi'ite Iran as it nervously watches the security and political developments in neighboring Pakistan, which is rife with Sunni extremism. Inevitably, Iranian leaders and policy experts have to confront the question: what happens if some of those ardently anti-Shi'ite extremist groups get their hands on nuclear bombs?

This is no longer an abstract theoretical question, but rather a realistic fear that Iran cannot possibly ignore, Nor, for that matter, can Iran overlook the importance of necessary precautions to minimize this risk, even if it means building a minimal nuclear deterrent capability. To put it simply, Iran's own margin of safety from external nuclear threats has substantially been reduced as a direct result of the growing threat of nuclear terrorism.

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http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KA31Ak01.html