Isn't Groundhog Day's Predictor Bass Akwards?

[stopbush]

The National Climatic Data Center reportedly has stated that ground hog day's overall predictions accuracy rate is around 39%.

That means it's inaccurate 61% of the time.

Doesn't that mean that - in fact - when the groundhog sees his shadow, winter will end sooner?

Seems to be they've got the whole thing backwards.

[wtmusic]

1. The NCDC's groundhog interpretation rate is -100%

or something like that :crazy:

[ferrous wheel]

2. I never figured out how a subterranean-dwelling rodent could affect the equinox!

And do it over and over and over and...

:D

[MNDemNY]

3. It's all about "faith"

C'mon, man , you believe in an old dude in the sky controlling all of our lives, don't you?

[stopbush]

6. I imagine Curt Warner is having a difficult time today, wondering

why Jesus made the Cardinals lose yesterday.

[MNDemNY]

8. Was that Jesus? I thought it was more to do with stupid penalties.

[stopbush]

13. Doesn't Jesus hand out a lot of penalties, like burning in hell for eternity?

No mention of that eternal suffering for non-believers in the OT. It was gentle Jesus, meek and mild who came up with that one.

[MNDemNY]

14. No, that was his old-man.

[rateyes]

4. Ever hear of global climate change?

That subterranean-dwelling rodent named Dubya Bush has affected the equinox.

[liberal N proud]

5. 6 weeks or month and a half

Spring still starts on March 21.

[bluedawg12]

7. The problem is the rodent du jour.

If we used, say, squirrels, who are not annoyed at being awakened out of a deep warm sleep, then, there would be less sabotage.

The groundhog can't be wrong this often by accident, he is PO'ed.

[Solly Mack]

9. Groundhogs come out to find a mate for their spring mating

To look around, check out the females, and decide who to play house with for a short while...they'll visit several females if they can

but they won't mate until spring...just get in some early bonding

I love this day!

Everyone talks weather and I just snicker.

Poor Phil...he just wants to get laid.

[Xipe Totec]

10. If you see your shadow, the sun is out

if it's cloudy, you don't.

The groundhog is just a prop.

[Dr.Phool]

12. Show biz killed it!

Stephanie Abrams from The Weather Channel was there. She said it was very cloudy, and the only reason he saw his shadow, was because of the TV lights.

[Xipe Totec]

15. I didn't even think about that! Good Point!

[slackmaster]

11. My desert tortoise is always right.

He saw his shadow this morning, and went back to bed.

[NutmegYankee]

16. Half the problem is it is based on a German tradition. There is science behind it.

In Germany, if it's a nice clear day, chances are the cold air mass from the north is still in control of the region and keeping the moisture out, and hence no clouds. If there are clouds, and the critter cannot see it's shadow, then that means that the warmer moist southern air mass has been making it's way up, and that spring is on it's way.

Problem is even in winter or spring some days rain or are sunny, and picking one set day each year really reduces the odds of getting a good prediction. This does work somewhat well in the USA though, as the air masses are either continental polar (from Canada) or Maritime Tropic (from Gulf of Mexico). Once again though, a single set day ruins it. If you observe many cloudy wet days, you can presume that the Maritime Tropic air is winning the fight northward, and spring is coming.


Edit: better title

[baldguy]

17. Phil gets to try to predict the weather one day a year, and half the time he gets it wrong.

That's why you don't see him on the 6 o'clock news every day.

[TahitiNut]

18. I think it's spelled "Ackwards."

:dunce: