US stimulus job creation claims uncertain

[OhioChick]

Source: Economic Times India

3 Feb 2009, 0033 hrs IST, AGENCIES

WASHINGTON, President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats say it nearly every day: Their huge economic stimulus package must be rushed to passage because it will create or save 3 million to 4 million jobs.

In fact, those figures are uncertain enough that even some economists who produced them are basically saying: We gave it our best shot.

"The models are based on historic experience," said Mark Zandi, referring to formulas he and other economists use to predict economic behavior. "And we're outside anything we've experienced historically. We're completely in a world we don't understand and know."

Zandi is chief economist at Moody's Economy.com of West Chester, Pa. His projection last week that the House-passed stimulus measure would create 3 million jobs by the end of 2010, scaled down from a 4 million estimate he made days earlier, have been cited repeatedly by Democrats as justification for the $819 billion legislation.

"Yes, there's a high level of uncertainty," said Zandi, a Democrat who advised Republican presidential candidate John McCain last year. "But my estimates are as good as you're going to get, and they're good enough to be useful in trying to evaluate whether we should do this or not."




Read more: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/US_stimulus_job_creation_claims_uncertain/articleshow/4067423.cms

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The more that I read on this subject, the more unsettled I feel.

[BlooInBloo]

1. hahahaha!

[OhioChick]

3. Hysterical.

:eyes:

[TahitiNut]

2. It ain't called the "dismal science" for nothin'.

That it's even called a "science" is questionable hyperbole.

[hay rick]

4. Unsettled?

Numbers extracted from the article: stimulus job creation in next 2 years: between 1.3 million and 4 million. Average guess: 3 million jobs. Current rate of job loss: 500,000 per month.

If the rate of job losses doesn't improve we're looking at a net loss of 8 million jobs in the next 2 years even with the creation of 4,000,000 jobs by stimulus. If the rate of job losses can be cut by more than 2/3 to 150,000 per month, jobs created by stimulus might result in no net job loss.

Factor in increasing population and an economy which is not producing new jobs will produce increased unemployment and underemployment.

[Azlady]

5. "an economy which is not producing new jobs"

Boy you got that right! Shipping them all off shore. Plug up that hole & at least there MIGHT be a chance to save our country.

[Igel]

6. Of course, that range, 1.3 to 4 million

is at the 5% confidence interval.

For the 95th you're talking -15 million to +23 million jobs created.

You don't want the numbers for the 99% confidence interval. :-)