The Next Slum

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

http://greenbuildingfocus.com/default.aspx?id=823

As the residents of inner-city neighborhoods did before them, suburban homeowners will surely try to prevent the division of neighborhood houses into rental units, which would herald the arrival of the poor. And many will likely succeed, for a time. But eventually, the owners of these fringe houses will have to sell to someone, and they’re not likely to find many buyers; offers from would-be landlords will start to look better, and neighborhood restrictions will relax. Stopping a fundamental market shift by legislation or regulation is generally impossible.

Of course, not all suburbs will suffer this fate. Those that are affluent and relatively close to central cities—especially those along rail lines—are likely to remain in high demand. Some, especially those that offer a thriving, walkable urban core, may find that even the large-lot, residential-only neighborhoods around that core increase in value. Single-family homes next to the downtowns of Redmond, Washington; Evanston, Illinois; and Birmingham, Michigan, for example, are likely to hold their values just fine.

On the other hand, many inner suburbs that are on the wrong side of town, and poorly served by public transport, are already suffering what looks like inexorable decline. Low-income people, displaced from gentrifying inner cities, have moved in, and longtime residents, seeking more space and nicer neighborhoods, have moved out.

But much of the future decline is likely to occur on the fringes, in towns far away from the central city, not served by rail transit, and lacking any real core. In other words, some of the worst problems are likely to be seen in some of the country’s more recently developed areas—and not only those inhabited by subprime-mortgage borrowers. Many of these areas will become magnets for poverty, crime, and social dysfunction.

Despite this glum forecast for many swaths of suburbia, we should not lose sight of the bigger picture—the shift that’s under way toward walkable urban living is a healthy development. In the most literal sense, it may lead to better personal health and a slimmer population. The environment, of course, will also benefit: if New York City were its own state, it would be the most energy-efficient state in the union; most Manhattanites not only walk or take public transit to get around, they unintentionally share heat with their upstairs neighbors.

[jwirr]

1. K & R

[PM Martin]

2. Fascinating.

I never understood the allure to live so far from a city.

[Xithras]

5. Well, I've never understood the allure of living IN a city.

You should see the stars from my backyard at night. Or hear the silence of the countryside, where only the crickets dare to interrupt the whispering of the wind through the grass. You should see the fun my kids have playing in the muddy back meadow after a rain, or the looks on their blackened faces after they've spent a summer afternoon rummaging through the wild blackberry bushes. You should see the real TREEHOUSE they built in the 200+ year old oak tree along the back edge of my property.

Keep your city. And your suburbs.

[PM Martin]

6. Most of my family and friends live in or near a city.

Those who live around the cities have some land and for us that is a suburb.
The American suburb is unique in that each residence has so much land and is far from the cities.
Perhaps you are talking about rural areas? :shrug:

[libodem]

3. Oh goody

more people to put into prisons. Mr Chaney's private enterprise.

[Warpy]

4. I predicted this some time ago

that as transportation became increasingly unaffordable among high fuel prices, increasing insurance costs, and the necessity of long and expensive loans to buy a vehicle, the exurbs would probably die and the near suburbs become working class slums around an affluent city core. That's the classic pattern for cities and only cheap fuel and the high salaries of the New Deal allowed us to escape it temporarily.

We'll see a reverse of the 40s-60s when inner city town houses were converted to rooming houses for urban poor while their former owners fled to suburban expanses. McMansions will be the new rooming houses, their media rooms and game rooms converted to more bedrooms to rent. Re gentrification has already taken care of the urban town houses and now loft space is premium housing for the affluent.

Better health for the affluent is just one extra benefit of urban living. Unfortunately, those stuck in suburbs will have to get their exercise hoofing it to and from inadequate public transit.

[EmeraldCityGrl]

7. I have the best of both worlds.

I live on a mountain with a community of about 500 homes, all on one plus acre lots. There are only two entries on either side to access the area.
The community is home to many Master Gardeners, and creative small businesses run out of peoples homes. We are home to a tea company, yoga studio, day care center,
a famous cartoonist, too many others to mention. We are adjacent to a beautiful National forest, have built a ten acre park, and are in the process of building a
community pea patch. Ten miles away is the interstate and a medium sized village with all the retail you need. fifteen more miles and I'm in the heart of Seattle.

There was a time I thought we were too rural and considered moving...so glad I didn't.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

8. Sounds nice. nt