Even with Space-Launch Capabilities, Iran's Threat Level Remains Low

[Purveyor]

Two days after Iran launched its Safir-2 rocket, on the 30th anniversary of the country’s Islamic Revolution, many are speculating as to what sort of weapons-ready technology president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad now possesses.

Iran claims to be merely celebrating the technological achievement of Omid-1, which means “hope” in Farsi, putting them on par with the United States, Europe, Russia, China, Japan, India and Israel—the only countries to independently launch spacecraft into Earth orbit. “This is a scientific and technical achievement and has no military aims,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hassan Qashqavi said today, according to the state’s news agency.

Some don't believe this is the case. UN Security Council Resolution 1718 prohibits Iran from engaging in missile-related activities, and there are obvious technological crossovers. “(This) is clearly a concern of ours,” Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell said at a news briefing today. “Obviously, there are dual-use capabilities in the technology here which could be applied toward the development of a long-range ballistic missile.”

Last August, Iran test-fired a Safir rocket using its most advanced ballistic-missile system, the Shahab-3, as the first stage. (The first- and second-stage engines are interchangeable between missiles and rockets because they pass through the same flight environments.) Monday’s multistage rocket—whether it was a two- or three-stage rocket remains unclear—was a testament to the Iranians’ technological evolution, because they had long struggled to progress beyond single-stage missiles. With the increased range, NATO estimates a missile could reach parts of Europe or Israel. But converting the Safir-2 into an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) would still require a few key transformations.

Even beyond the obvious question of whether Iran would have a nuke to put in an ICBM, the rocket would need a vastly increased payload. The Omid satellite launched Monday weighed approximately 60 pounds. The W54, generally considered the smallest U.S. nuclear warhead, weighs just over 50 pounds—but making things small comes with experience, and Iran doesn’t have that. Even second-generation American nuclear warheads weighed 1,600 pounds.

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[Hydra]

1. You know, we wouldn't be bothering them if they were a real threat

Consider how we treat other nuclear nations(even those with very limit capacity). If I wanted a place at the international table, that's one of the first things I would get, if I were in charge.