Moderates were key to Obama's victory

[Kaleva]

Was looking at the exit polling data at the CNN site and saw the following:

22% of the voters described themselves as liberal and President Obama got 89% of that vote.
34% of the voters described themselves as conservative and President Obama of 20% of that vote.
44% of the voters described themselves as moderate and President Obama got 60% of that vote.

If McCain had managed to split the moderate vote 50/50, he would have won the popular vote by my calculations (disclaimer: I barely made it out of high school so my conclusion may be wrong).

[Juche]

1. 538 had some similiar info

They talked about how most of the gains in the House that the dems have made have been in fairly moderate districts based on the Cook partisan index.

However, the youth vote is also what put Obama over the top. Obama won about 65% of the vote of people 18-29 (who made up around 18% of the electorate). Had he not won youth votes and they had been split 50/50 then Obama would've only gotten about 280 EVs.

[Occam Bandage]

2. Exit polling is at its freshest three months after the election. nt

[Zynx]

3. You are absolutely right.

[Parker CA]

4. Well, good thing he didn't, and that our guy won. McCrook was a joke. n/t.

[Number23]

5. Exactly. And he is very wise to have not forgotten that. At least not yet...

[MrModerate]

6. I think your point is that Obama must appeal to the "moderate" vote or . . .

Risk losing the "mandate for change" that he rode into the White House.

I think he probably agrees. What I've seen from the 'Licans over the last few weeks is the exact opposite of moderation. I've seen grandstanding, demogogery, fatuity, cluelessness, and, in the case of RNC Leader Rush Limbaugh, treason.

From Obama I've seen restraint and civility, a sincere effort to engage the other side to solve problems facing all Americans, and a resolve to get business done rather than engage in hysterical cultural warmaking.

Fuck the 'Licans. Props to Obama. Anyone truly moderate is going to agree with that 100 percent.

[Kaleva]

11. If a Dem candidate loses the center, he loses the election.

I'm referring to presidential elections only.

Looking at the CNN exit polling data, it does appear that about twice as many moderates for for President Obama as did liberals. Ocaasionaly, I see a post here at DU by someone claiming that "we" got Obama elected. Meaning that it was the liberals that put him in office and he ought to promote the liberal/progressive agenda. I see the data as saying that it was the moderates that were the key to his victory and it would behoove Obama to remember that especially if he's thinking of running again in 2012.

[TahitiNut]

7. Hmmm...

(0.22 x 0.89) + (0.34 x 0.20) + (0.44 x 0.60) = 0.1958 + 0.068 + 0.264 = 0.5278 = 52.8%

Let's say he got only 10% of conservatives...
(0.22 x 0.89) + (0.34 x 0.10) + (0.44 x 0.60) = 0.1958 + 0.034 + 0.264 = 0.4938 = 49.4%

Well ... he should REALLY come through for those conservatives, then.

[Venceremos]

8. Wow

I've seen your mathematical calculations before. I assume you're in some sort of numbers profession? Maybe I'm just bad at math, but they look complicated.

[TahitiNut]

9. Well, while my undergrad is in math and I taught high school math ...

... that's only 5th grade math there. :shrug:

[Venceremos]

10. Ouch

now I know why my kids don't want me to help with their math homework. :dunce:

[Odin2005]

12. No duh. This is a central fact of US politics: He who wins the center wins the election.

Too bad the Naderites haven't gotten the memo.