I'll never figure out the goddamned stock market

[scheming daemons]

The news today is this:

- 598,000 job losses in January.... up from the 525,000 predicted. Unemployment at 7.6%, up from the 7.5% predicted. Revision of December numbers says it was worse than we thought.

1.8 million jobs lost since Lehman brothers was allowed to collapse.


- Stimulus bill has hit a snag, and passage this weekend looks like a 50/50 bet right now.



...and the market is up 2%. Nearly +200 on the DJIA.



WTF? What good news are investors seeing????

[RB TexLa]

1. Many decade low prices for stocks. If you think the market will go up

you buy when the price is low.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

2. They're like gamblers trying to recoup their losses.

[Lakerstan]

3. Layoffs = reduced expenses = improved net income

That's the misguided philosophy, anyway.

[Freddie Stubbs]

4. The DJIA is simply a stock market index of 30 stocks

Investors may be willing to pay more for those particular stocks for reasons unrelated to the news you posted.

[Tuesday Afternoon]

5. SSDD = Buy Low. Sell High.

same old. same old.

[bigscott]

6. economy in toilet

equals more interest rate cuts

more interest rate cuts means stocks are relatively attractive investments

not all stocks are going down during this recession - some are going up - not many but some

[T Wolf]

7. It has totally gotten away from the initial reasoning - that being to invest in companies

that would be successful - thereby providing capital for the companies to advance/expand/whatever.

Now, the market is just one variation of the financial schemes that have destroyed the economy - not connected to "reality" in any fashion.

[thewiseguy]

8. I think there are some great deals out there

I would recommend buying MSFT and Bank of America

[ipfilter]

10. Don't try to catch a falling knife.

BAC is a falling chainsaw.

[thewiseguy]

11. I understand that they are struggling but their stock price is too cheap

And just today it went up 25 percent.

[RB TexLa]

13. It's become a very good day trading stock.

[ipfilter]

15. I sold that pig at $35.

It was one of the few I didn't get burned on last year.

[thewiseguy]

22. So would you bet on it now? Hoping for a 400% return?

I have a very hard time seeing them go down under. It just will not happen.

You put 3000 dollars on that stock and the most that you may lose may be 1500 dollars but you may very well make 12000 dollars.

[ipfilter]

26. I look at BAC as a heros or zeros stock.

I wouldn't go long without buying puts and selling front month covered calls against the position. There's still a lot of downside potential IMHO. At least the puts would give you some downside protection and selling the calls would generate better income than their 1 penny dividend.

[plcdude]

9. to understand

the market all you have to do is understand the concept of greed and that it is controlled and managed by an oligarchy of wealthy individuals and groups. It is for the most part for private investors a crap shoot.

[Mz Pip]

12. Job numbers

will hopefully put pressure on Congress to pass a stimulus package sooner rather than later. Wall Street wants that stimulus package.

[DrDan]

14. 600K jobs lost was the key number - below that and the numbers are statistically equal

so the 598K - regardless of how small the difference - is below 600K. So that helped the market - hit expectations.

The 7.6% similarly - but determined from a different source - hit the expectation.

So no surprises todeay.

No good news - just no bad news.

[specimenfred1984]

16. Simple formula: Bad for Main St. = Good for Wall. St.

Wall St. thrives on disaster capitalism, making money by ruining others, taking over their livelihoods, firing and outsourcing people, denying benefits, promoting ruthless sociopaths: all to keep more money for the CEOs, management ass-kissers and stock holders. Add to that the massive, billion dollar hedge funds are allowed to trade unregulated and the result is pure fascism.

[ThomWV]

17. That is nonsense

[specimenfred1984]

29. I've been trading the markets for almost 20 years

I've seen the change in the markets from the markets you think they are to the markets they are today. You go ahead and explain the involvement of unregulated funds, corrupt banks, large propaganda networks and the intertwined nature of those with a corrupt government and then you can think about spew off some bullshit about it being nonsense.

Put up or shut up, boy.

[lukasahero]

30. Wow - that was rude. eom

[Ilsa]

18. I'm looking at gains in a bio-tech company that will have to pay out millions in a lawsuit.

It makes no sense to be that the investors are writing up the stock from its current value. It has just moved to my "overpriced" list.

It all seems very irrational.

[4lbs]

21. Maybe it's a bio-tech firm that will expect to recoup those millions and much more under the

perceived increase in science and health spending with President Obama.

You know, since bio-tech firms will benefit from increased stem-cell research funding and the like, to the tune of billions more, maybe investors see the stock price as "cheap" from what it will be months from now and decide that now is the time to buy, while it's "on sale" relatively speaking.

[ThomWV]

19. It is clear that you will never figure it out because you clearly do not understand what it is

Forget those market averages, they tell you nothing of great interest and certainly nothing in the context of your post.

The stock market is just that, a market. What is of concern is the price of a stock - not every stock, not every stock in a category, just one single stock. How much is a person who actually will proceed with the sale willing to pay for it? The answer lies in the person's motivation but mostly its in the hopes of either dividends or growth of the stock's price. Both of those concerns speak to the future, not today's layoff numbers, not how bad peanut butter is for you, not what's going to happen tomorrow but what will happen next week, next year, next decade. That is what the stock market is about and its why today's news is meaningless. To believe otherwise is to fall victim to the McDonald's mentality that requires instant gratification, no matter how low its quality.

[LSdemocrat]

20. In regard to the stock market, I've heard the phrase, "Buy the rumor, sell the news"

In other words, if you hear of good news, buy the stock on the rumor, and then cash out your gains on the official announcement of the news. The same principal also works in reverse.

[tekisui]

23. Stimulus is going to pass. The investors know it.

[Tashca]

25. Exactly.....n/t

[backscatter712]

24. Thom Hartmann had it - too many rich people throwing their money around recklessly.

The stock market is far stabler when we do things like tax multimillionaires at 60%-90%.

When we don't do that, and the rich have more money to play with, they invest it.

The problem is that they're not good investors. They follow fads. They invest based on the advice of their golfing buddies. They have failed venture after failed venture.

And the result, especially when you have investment fads, is that you have boom-bust bubble economies.

Part of the reasoning behind high taxes for the ultra-rich, along with various regulations which restrict what the rich can do with their money, is to keep the economy nice and stable.

[soothsayer]

27. only those who RIG IT can 'figure it out'.

it's not meant for you, and it makes no sense because the whole thing is phony anymore.

[On the Road]

28. The Short Answer Is

We will find out tomorrow. News usually leaks to the big investors early and the market tends to move a day ahead.

Other factors may be seasonal or technical. January is normally a strong month -- whether it's tax returns or something else, more money seems to be available to put into the market. Daily fluctuations are often driven by technical factors -- overbought or oversold conditions, support or resistance, moving averages, etc.

Perhaps people were doing short betting big on a huge down day, and when that didn't happen, starting bailing out causing a short squeeze.

Perhaps there was concern the stiumulus bill would suck too much investment money into T-Bills, and reducing it might be good news for the stock market.

After following stock boards for a few years, there are constant surprises that only make sense in retrospect.

A longer-term answer is that we might be closer to a bottom than everyone assumes. Jobs lag growth, and things always look darkest just before the turnaround.

[boomerbust]

31. I would say

Buy Ford and hold it until Obama leaves office.

[SoCalDem]

32. "the market" is a rigged casino..the casino always "wins"..n/t