To Believe the Official 2008 Recorded Vote, You Must Also Believe … ( TIA ) - x

[tiptoe]

x —Full article: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=512073&mesg_id=512073

To Believe the Official 2008 Recorded Vote, You Must Also Believe …

TruthIsAll      http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ToBelieve2008.htm

Feb. 11, 2009

If you believe that 2008 was fraud-free and Obama won the recorded vote by 9.5 million, then you must also believe that …

1. Bush won in 2004 by 12.5 million votes (54.6–44.4%), assuming 2008 NEP vote shares and a 95% turnout, despite the fact that his official recorded margin was 3.0 million (50.7–48.3%). The Final NEP is always 'forced' to match the official recorded vote.
(Tables 9, 10)

2. Pre-election likely-voter (LV) polls that did not include new voters (Obama 51.0–43.6%) were more accurate than registered voter (RV) polls (52.3–40.0%).
(Table 5)

3. The Final NEP is correct in stating that 5.2 million (4%) of the 2008 recorded 131.37m were returning 2004 third-party voters, despite the fact that there were only 1.2 million third-party voters in 2004 (less than 1% of the 2008 recorded vote).
(Table 1)

4. The Final NEP is correct in stating there were 17 million (13% 'DNV') new voters in 2008, despite the fact that 122.3 million votes were recorded in 2004, and approximately 6 million (5%) died. Of the 116m living in 2008, approximately 110m (95%) voted. Therefore there had to be 21 million new voters (16%). Is it just a coincidence that the 13% new voter stat is 3% too low and the 4% third-party stat is 3% too high?
(Table 1)

5. The Final NEP is correct in stating that Obama won returning voters by a slim 50–48% margin, despite the fact that he led the final LV polls (i.e. returning voters) by 50.45–43.91%. Assuming Obama had 75% of the undecided vote, he won returning voters by 54–45%. The NEP states that Obama won all voters who did not vote in 2004 by 71–27% and newly-registered voters by 69–30%. Therefore, Obama won 82% of the 2% who did not vote in 2004 but did in a prior election.
(Table 2)

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9. The Final NEP is correct in stating that there were 11 million more returning-Bush than -Kerry voters, despite the fact that Bush won by only 3.0m votes.
(Table 1)

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12. The Final NEP is accurate despite the fact that a mathematically impossible returning-voter mix was required to match the recorded vote.
(Table 1)

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14. There is no reason to suspect that votes were uncounted, despite the fact that 5.4 million were uncounted in 2000 and 3.4 million in 2004. Since 70-80% are Democratic (50% in minority districts), the Gore and Kerry vote shares were reduced by 1-2%.

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Table 1
2008 Final National Exit Poll — 'Vote for President in 2004'

How Voted
in 2004
Did Not Vote
Kerry
Bush
Other

Total

 

'Adjusted'
Mix
13%
37%
46%
4%

100%

 

'04 Electorate
Returning in '08
17.08
48.61
60.43
5.25

131.37 m

 

Obama
71%
89%
17%
66%

52.6%

Shares
(= 12.13)
(= 43.26)
(= 10.27)
(=   3.47)

(= 69.13)

 

McCain
27%
 9%
82%
24%

45.5%

Shares
(=  4.61)
(=  4.37)
(= 49.55)
(=  1.26)

(= 59.89)

 

'Other'
 2%
 2%
 1%
10%

 1.9%

Shares
(= 0.34)
(= 0.97)
(= 0.60)
(= 0.53)

(= 2.44)

 

Table 2
2008 Final National Exit Poll — 'Is This the First Year You Have Ever Voted?'

Yes
No

Total

 

Mix
11%
89%

100%

 

First-Time and
Returning Voters
 14.45
116.92

131.37 m

 

Obama
69%
50%

52.1%

Shares
(=   9.97)
(=  58.46)

(=  68.43)

 

McCain
30%
48%

46.0%

Shares
(=   4.34)
(=  56.12)

(=  60.46)

 

'Other'
 1%
 2%

 1.8%

Shares
(=  0.14)
(=  2.34)

(=  2.48)

 

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Table 5
Final November Pre-election LV and RV poll averages before undecided voter allocation (UVA).

Polls

 

Obama

McCain

Other

 

Undecided

LV (9)
RV (3)

 

51.00%
52.33%

43.56%
40.00%

1.50%
1.50%

 
 

3.94%
6.17%

 

Final RV Polls (before and after 75% Obama UVA)

RV Poll

 

Poll Date

 

RV Sample

 

Obama

McCain

Spread

 

75%
Obama

UVA
 

25%
McCain

 
 

Spread

Average

 

 

 

 

 

52.33

40.00

12.33

 

56.96

 

41.55

 

15.42

Gallup
ABC/WP
Pew

 
 
 

10/31 - 11/02
10/31 - 11/02
10/29 - 11/01

 
 
 

2,824
2,762
2,995

 
 
 

53
54
50

40
41
39

13
13
11

 
 
 

57.125
56.625
57.125

 
 
 

41.375
41.875
41.375

 
 
 

15.75
14.75
15.75

 

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Table 10
2004 True Vote

2000:  US Census Votes-Cast and State Records of Votes-Counted
 

 
 

2004 Calculated True Vote

 True  'Voted in 2000'  Mix 

 
 

12:22am NEP  ('13047')
'Voted in 2000' Shares

Total Votes
Cast in '00

Gore
Bush
Nader/Other

110.8
million

 

Recorded
Vote-Count

51.00
50.46
3.96

105.42

 

Uncounted
Allocation

4.04
1.18
0.16

5.38

 

Vote-Count
Adjusted

55.04
51.64
4.12

110.80

 

Deaths

2.69
2.52
0.20

5.41

 

Alive

52.35
49.12
3.92

105.39

 

Est '04 Turnout
of 'Voted 2000'
DNV
95%
95%
95%

100.13

 

Total Votes
Cast in '04

25.62
49.73
46.67
  3.72

125.74
True Vote

Recorded
Vote 2004

 

'Voted 2000'
Weight

20.4%
39.6%
37.1%
2.96%

100.0%
125.74

100.0%
122.29

 

Kerry

57%
91%
10%
64%

53.21%
66.91

48.27%
59.03

 

Bush

41%
8%
90%
17%

45.42%
57.11

50.73%
62.04

 

Other

2%
1%
0%
19%

1.36%
1.72 

1.00%
1.22 

 

 
 

2004 votes shares required to match 2008 Vote-Count
(reconciled as per Table 9 Vote-Shares and Voter-Mix)

 
 

'04 Required
To Match '08

 

100.0%
122.29

 

44.41%
54.31

 

54.59%
66.75

 

1.00%
1.23

[Peace Patriot]

1. Two important considerations in reviewing this analysis...

1. Half the voting systems in the country are 100% non-transparent and unverifiable, run on 'TRADE SECRET,' PROPRIETARY programming code, owned and controlled by rightwing corporations, with no--repeat, NO--audit/recount controls. The other half are 99% non-transparent: they may have a paper ballot, but only 1% of them actually see the light of day in an audit--not nearly sufficient to detect fraud in a 'TRADE SECRET' code system.* Rightwing corporations therefore have the capability--the EASY capability--of fiddling any election in the country**, with almost no chance of detection.

2. When did righwing corporations and other corpo/fascists ever have such power--to appoint a president, to shave a presidential mandate (if, for their own reasons, our corporate rulers decide to let a Democrat win), and to shape Congresses to their interests--and not use it?

In these circumstances, we must assume election fraud. There is no other reason to have such a non-transparent vote counting system except fraud. TIA provides us with the wonderful service of studying pre-election polls, registration numbers and exit polls, to help determine what actually happened in a given election, since nobody is counting the actual votes (except in the rare instance of a recount, in a system that has paper ballots, such a Minnesota), and rightwing corporations using 'TRADE SECRET' code have an inherent interest in the results, and the easy capability of switching millions of votes undetectably.

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*(For some reason, the Bushwhacks did not pressure NY at first, to give up their old reliable lever voting machines and switch to expensive, insecure, highly manipulable 'TRADE SECRET' voting machines run by rightwing corporations. However, they finally did sue NY to try to force them to change. That battle is in progress. Every other state in the country has 'TRADE SECRET' voting machines.)

**(A 10% audit is the minimum needed to detect fraud. Venezuela does a whopping 55% audit, and they use OPEN SOURCE CODE programming in their electronic system--code that anyone may review. Here in "the land of the free/home of the brave," we use 'TRADE SECRET' code that no member of the public, and not even our secretaries of state, are permitted to review. When ES&S--brethren to Diebold--'disappeared' 18,000 votes in Democratic areas, in FL-13, in 2006, in an election that the Republican 'won' by only some 350 votes, the lawyers for the real winner--Democrat Chrstine Jennings--took the matter to court, and requested to review ES&S's 'TRADE SECRET' code, to try to determine what happened to those 18,000 votes. ES&S refused, and argued that their 'right' to profit from our elections trumps the right of the voters to know how their votes were counted, and the Bushbot judge agreed with ES&S! What is even worse, when Jennings took the matter to Congress--the final arbiter--the Democratic leadership buried the matter in committee, and it was never heard of again.)

[tiptoe]

2. k!

[havocmom]

3. IBTL

:popcorn: