http://denisbider.blogspot.com/2008/04/subprime-mortgage-collapse-for-dummies.htmlFor all the hoopla about subprime mortgage woes, the media do a fairly bad job of explaining how this problem could even come about in the first place. These are complex phenomena that can be difficult to interpret, because they're so large that it's difficult to see the whole thing. It has taken me until recently to connect the dots and figure out to my satisfaction why it happened.
First, the core problem of the subprime mortgages is that many - many... many - U.S. mortgages were given away to people with incomes too low to repay them in the long run. The loans were made, however, because the people were able to pay them in the short run.
The reason why people were able to pay these loans in the short run were two-fold. First, some loan-givers offered introductory low rates that may have actually been loss-leaders. Second, interest rates throughout the U.S. economy were low.
Interest rates across the economy are determined by the central bank. In the case of the United States, the Federal Reserve was keeping interest rates low to stimulate the economy after the collapse of the Internet bubble, and especially after the September 11 attacks. When interest rates are low, businesses and individuals find it cheap to borrow money, but not very rewarding to save it. Therefore spending on consumption goes up, and spending on investment goes down. The Federal Reserve wanted this effect, because they feared that after September 11, everyone might stop their consumption in anticipation of possible worse attacks to come. If consumption did actually stop, this would produce huge problems in the economy, as all the infrastructure that is currently geared for a certain level of consumption and a certain level of investment would have to be re-geared for a different ratio of consumption vs. investment. If any such re-gearing took place, it would take the form of a severe depression, which the Federal Reserve wanted to avoid. The chances of everyone stopping their consumption out of fear of more terrorist attacks were low; however, there was a chance nevertheless, and the Federal Reserve felt that this was a good enough reason to keep interest rates low.
Now, because interest rates in general were low, interest rates for mortgages were also low. Add to that any loss leader discounts that may have been offered by lenders, and all of a sudden it turns out that people could borrow sums of money that they previously weren't able to afford. Not only that, but most people's willingness to buy a house depends not on the actual price of the house, but on the size of the monthly mortgage payment relative to their income. Since interest rates were exceedingly low, so were the monthly mortgage payments, and lots of people piled in to take advantage - maybe thinking that by the time they pay off their mortgage, real estate is going to appreciate even more, and they are going to be rich!
Now, this state of affairs was bound to change over time. Interest rates were bound to go up much sooner than most people were going to repay their mortgage. First, after an initial few years, any loss-leading interest rates that may have been in place were scheduled to be restored to an economically sensible - that is, higher - level. Second, the Federal Reserve was bound to stop being so concerned about boosting people's consumption, and to raise interest rates in the overall economy. For people who go for an adjustable-rate mortage, their monthly payments are going to vary in size depending on prevailing interest rates in the economy.
So, the interest rates were bound to go up. Meanwhile, lots of these loans were made to financially uneducated people who could never afford the increased payments, but they signed up for the mortgage anyway, because the agent encouraged them that "surely after a few years you will get a raise".
But, what made these agents want so desperately to sell these mortgages to people who could not afford them?
First, the companies who made the loans did not keep them. Instead of being responsible for each mortgage throughout its lifetime, the companies who made these loans instead resold them to other investors - hedge funds, banks - under a recently invented, much championed concept called Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO). So the people who made the loans were only exposed to risk until they were able to resell the hot potatoes to someone else, and the risk was small in the initial period, because the monthly mortgage payments were still low at that time to begin with.
The second reason why the agents were selling these mortgages is because normally, if a person can't pay their mortgage, this shouldn't be a big problem for the lender. If you miss enough of your payments, the lender comes in, takes the property, and sells it to someone else, recovering their investment. They might take a loss because this process is not usually very efficient, but the whole idea is that the loan is secured against the property, so the lender can give you the loan to begin with, resting securely in the knowledge that they can come in and take the property if you default.
And normally, all of this wouldn't be a problem, if it wasn't for the fact that this lending to people who couldn't really afford it was done not just by one or two lenders, but was instead a widespread fashion that took place over a period of several years. For reasons I'll explain below, investors were actually willing to buy these CDOs, so it made a lot of sense for lenders to make money by relaxing their standards of lending. What else are you going to do, ignore the opportunity while your competitors make a killing? You do that and you're going to be replaced with someone who's going to do the job.
Thus, people were able to buy houses who otherwise could not have, entering the real estate market. Additionally, those who already could buy property, could now buy bigger and more expensive property. Demand grew larger for the same amount of real estate, which means that prices grew fast.
...much much more at link...