52.45 points to Armageddon

[Veritas_et_Aequitas]

Well, it's not quite that bad, but the market closed out at 7552.45 today. This is about 17 points from the last time the market hit bottom in this recession. More importantly, if the market slumps below 7500 points, it will have lost half of its value since the beginning of the bear market and surpass the 1929 crash in severity (during which the market lost 48% of its value). However The big difference between the two markets is that the crash in 1929 took about 60 days to occur; so far, ours has been going for a year.

Oh, and how low would we have to go to be in a worse bear market than the 1930 - 1931 crash (in which the market lost 80% of its value)? We'd have to slump down to a paltry 2600 points.

So things are bad, but they could be much, much worse.

[Skink]

1. There wasn't a generation of Baby Boomers then however hoping to retire.

This depression is going to more like a lost decade. Maybe even a lost generation.

[PM Martin]

2. The market should not go below 7000.

There are still valuable assets around and everything in sight is being thrown at economy in order to keep it from sinking.
It seems that anything above 10000 is an inflated value.
There was no reason for the 14000+ market value in 2007.

[Veritas_et_Aequitas]

3. I agree completely.

I wonder what that guy who wrote Dow Jones 37,000 is up to now.

[PM Martin]

5. When the real recovery takes hold

and we are seeing sustained growth (fueled by the manufacture/purchase of goods made on this side of the big lake and services that are needed) the DOW could go back to the 9000 range.
I imagine it will stay there and will not move much, just as it did during the 1950's and 1960's decades.

[Hannah Bell]

10. one of them was mccain's economic advisor.

http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/ezraklein_archive?month=09&year=2008&base_name=dow_36000

the other was nominee for a white house press position.

http://www.counterpunch.org/farsetta02012008.html


if you're connected, being wrong means nothing.

we could even speculate that such "wrongness," which keeps the sheep buying stock, is purposeful.

witness the folks leading present "recovery" efforts, many of whom helped fuel the bubble.

[the other one]

6. Famous Last Words...It can and should go plenty lower.

I was flamed like crazy a year ago when I predicted the dow would be under 10k by Halloween (it was 12,400 at the time). It was under 9k by that time.

Next year at this time we should have a dow in the 5000s. The saving grace for the dow is that underperforming companies are pulled out and replaced by better ones. Its an illusion, but it does keep the dow high.

[nbsmom]

17. You have to wonder...

Why do you want so desperately to be right? You might as well be Rush hoping for Obama to fail.

There are a ton of folks just like you who seem a little too gleeful about this down market. Whatsa matter? Your shorts don't start to pay out until Dow is down to 5000?

LTCM was a problem in 1998. It could have been incredibly damaging to the U.S. and we probably would have been 'spared' the last of the tech bubble/bust/real estate bubble/bust (and we would probably _still_ be at ~8500, oddly enough.) But we didn't have the internet and 24/7 business channels filled with idiots like Peter Schiff (or posters like you who are adding _nothing_ to the conversation.)

Make no mistake, the market is all about perception. It's too bad that people who don't know any better (folks like you) can't simply be ignored.

[leftofthedial]

4. The stock market is increasingly irrelevant.

Look to tangible things for signs of recovery, which, if all goes perfectly, will start in 2-3 years.

Meanwhile, ignore the Dow and have a nice day.

[Skink]

7. Not when pensions and 401ks are tied to it.

[leftofthedial]

12. every point it loses makes it less relevant

no matter what money has been flushed into it

[Veritas_et_Aequitas]

8. Unfortunately, the Dow can't be ignored because too many people take it as the infallible economic

indicator. Businesses and consumers react to it illogically. Honestly, I think that some of our recession has been caused by the psychological blowback. Investors see it fall, pull their money causing the Dow to fall more, etc.

As for me? I don't have any money to invest.

[leftofthedial]

13. me? no more dinero

the sooner the stock market fails, the sooner the capitalist con game will end.

[girl gone mad]

9. The market lost almost 90% of its value in the GD.

[Veritas_et_Aequitas]

11. Right. Most of it was from 1930 to 1931.

That was when things really went to pot. I'm just talking about the initial drop in 1929.

[Ghost Dog]

14. Do you have a link,

source for this (as it gets updated) chart, ggm?

[girl gone mad]

18. Here's a better chart, which was just updated today:

Doug Short of http://dshort.com updates it fairly regularly.

[slipslidingaway]

20. They should include the 1937-1942 bear market in their chart....

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/10/11/business/20081011_BEAR_MARKETS.html

[Median Democrat]

15. California's Budget Implosion Is Probably A Big Driver

World's eighth largest econony is about to run out of money.

[natrat]

16. ya know why the big banks wont account for the tarp money? cuz they are shorting everything in sight

someone is getting insanely rich off this run

[nbsmom]

19. YESSSSSS!!!! nt