National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair's dramatic report last week — that the economic crisis is now the United States' top "near-term security concern" — caught some members of Congress by surprise.
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The global economic downturn could easily change the world. Previously stable countries could become unstable. The geopolitical lineup could shift sharply, some countries becoming more powerful while others get weaker. Allies could turn into adversaries.
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Throughout history, wars have often been preceded by serious economic crises. World War II followed the Great Depression, for instance.
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With such concerns in mind, Democratic Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, invited several experts to testify last week at a roundtable on the foreign policy implications of this economic crisis. "The biggest single step the U.S. could take to send a message abroad and try to restore confidence would be what?" he asked.
The answers were not encouraging. The steps that most need to be taken, the panel agreed, are the ones that are probably most difficult politically: Troubled U.S. banks, they all said, need to be nationalized, at least temporarily (that's probably a non-starter). The United States should lead the way in resisting protectionist pressures (but the U.S. stimulus package includes a Buy American provision). And governments around the world need to work together (the opposite has happened).
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The second part of this series will explore the prospect of "financial warfare" between states.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=100781975">Economic Crisis Poses Threat To Global Stability (Morning Edition, February 18, 2009)
http://www.dni.gov/testimonies/20090212_testimony.pdf">Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community (pdf, 46 pages, 241kB)