DOW under 7500.

[Liberal_in_LA]

:puke: <- I speak for all 401k participants.

[Veritas_et_Aequitas]

1. The current bear market has surpassed the 1929 crash in severity

*1929 Crash
Date Started 09/03/1929
Date Ended 11/13/1929
Total Days 71
Starting DJIA 381.17
Ending DJIA: 98.69
Total Loss -47.9%

Current recession
Date Started: 10/09/2007
Date Ended: Pres
Total Days:
Starting DJIA: 14,164.53
Ending DJIA: 7,465.95
Loss to Date: -48.3%

[TWiley]

3. The 20 / 200 simple moving average suggests 6 to 12 more months of the Bear

It suggests a low of around 6200 for the Dow.

[taught_me_patience]

9. Moving averages don't mean anything

and "chartists" who use these techniques to guess the direction of the market are using nothing but voodoo to underperform. This has been proven over and over again.

[Fearless]

12. Your math is apparently wrong...

The percent for DJIA in 1929 using the numbers you gave is -74.12%

[Veritas_et_Aequitas]

24. Nope, I just can't type.

It should have been 198.69

[Fearless]

30. Nice!

:+

[rollingrock]

2. Wow thats nuts, but I guess I shouldn't be too surprised

that Wall Street bailout did absolutely zilch to help the economy.

[Greyhound]

4. It was never interned to.

As so many of us said over that 3 days in Oct. this was just a last grab on the way out the door for the parasites.

We're still dancing around the issue, refusing to acknowledge what is becoming more apparent as each new event transpires, the system broke. It was always fundamentally flawed in that it was designed, not to fulfill it's stated primary objective of serving the nation's currency supply needs and foster it's economic growth, but to guarantee profits for it's owners, even at the expense of the national economy.

We have developed this idea that the money belongs to them and we are dependent on them to have it. Black is white, right is wrong, and day is night.

[rollingrock]

14. Exactly right

It's what Naomi Klein referred to as Disaster Capitalism.

These guys have no shame at all, and their accomplices reside in Washington.

[defendandprotect]

28. Also, the kind of "profits" they want don't come with a steady market . . .

there has to be ups and downs and, in fact, huge swings work best for them . . .

when they're in the know.

Like 9/11, for instance --!!!

[Greyhound]

40. Very true. I saw an analysis of US recessions/panics since the begining

and it shows that the swings have been wildly exaggerated since the federal reserve was brought in. IIRC, prior to the fed the greatest swing in valuation was 7.5%, and they have all been much greater since then.

There's always more profit in chaos.

[Median Democrat]

5. Memo From GOP - Don't Sweat It. Its Just A Business Cycle

If there is any doubt that big media merely lets the GOP spout off Karl Rove/Rush Limbaugh talking points, notice this exchange from Senator Bob Corker on CNN, then the remarks by Karl Rove a few weeks ago?

I am sure the Republicans will quickly forget their advocacy of inaction, then argue that Obama should be doing more.

/SNIP

CORKER: OK. BLITZER: Go ahead, Candy.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Senator, it is probably pretty to say that this bill is going to look more like what President Obama wants than like what you would like to see and what most Republicans would like to see.

us assume that it goes out there and, in fact, does begin to turn the economy around.

Aren't you then on the wrong side of this politically?

Do you not then sort of doom this party to minority ship, if you will, for the next election and beyond?

CORKER: Well, I think that's a great question. And, Candy, I came here to major in substance, OK, not to major in sort of the politics of the issues. And on substance, I just think this is the wrong thing.

I hope the economy turns around. And, by the way, with or without a stimulus, at some point, the economy is going to turn around because we have cycles, OK.

But I truly -- this is not a political vote to me. I cannot possibly imagine how this type of spending within government is going to create jobs.

And so I hope the economy turns around. I hope it happens by the time the next election occurs. I do not see this at all as a political risk. I see this as something I'm voting my conscience. I've been in business all of my life. I was a commission of finance for a state. I know how this money gets expended in state government and here at the federal government. And I just do not believe this is a stimulus bill.

But I hope, Candy, I hope that huge jobs are created, because there are so many people in my state, so many people all across our country that need jobs...

BLITZER: All right...

CORKER: ...but they will not be created because of this stimulus package, I can assure you of that.

/SNIP


/snip

"Rove’s two cents:

In his Wall Street Journal column today, Karl Rove applauds the way congressional Republicans played their hand during the stimulus, saying that they were smart to point out politically unpopular spending provisions; that they were “gracious” in talking with the Obama White House (really?); and that they were wise to propose alternative solutions (tax cuts). , echoing our comment above, he also issues this warning to his party: “Republicans predict economic doom, they will overplay their hand. The Democratic stimulus will slow recovery, but not stop it. Recessions don't last forever and, if history is a guide, sometime late this year or early next the economy will rebound on its own.n that happens, Democrats will argue that their untargeted, permanent spending actually revived the economy.”

/snip

[Median Democrat]

6. Memo From CNBC - People Who Lose Their Homes Are Losers Who Deserve It

CNBC's Santelli Rants About Housing Bailout
February 19, 2009 3:17 PM

CNBC's Rick Santelli made a splash this morning. It is being called "Santelli's Rant" or "Santelli's Chicago Tea Party".

Santelli derided the Obama administration's housing rescue plan, which aims to spend more than $200 billion when all is said and done to try and keep people in their homes. The goal? By helping the hardest hit, you help everyone by raising home values.

Back to Santelli. He was at his perch on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade and with a nod to those around him he blasted Obama's plan. Here is a transcript of what he said:

Rick Santelli CNBC transcript (video):

"Mr. Ross has nailed it. The government is promoting bad behavior. We certainly don’t want to put stimulus pork and give people a whopping $8 or $10 in their check and think that they ought to save it.

And in terms of modifications, I tell you what. I have an idea. The new administration is big on computers and technology. How about this, Mr. President and new administration. Why don’t you put up a website to have people vote on the internet as a referendum to see if we really want to subsidize the losers mortgages? Or would they like to at least buy buy cars, buy a house that is in foreclosure … give it to people who might have a chance to actually prosper down the road and reward people that can carry the water instead of drink the water?

This is America! (he turns to the traders nearby)

How many people want to pay for your neighbor’s mortgages that has an extra bathroom and can’t pay their bills? Raise their hand!

President Obama, are you listening?

You know Cuba used to have mansions and a relatively decent economy. They moved from the individual to the collective. Now they're driving '54 Chevys.

It's time for another tea party.

What we are doing in this country will make Thomas Jefferson and Benjamin Franklin roll over in their graves."

[GoesTo11]

10. I wish I was losing my home

Then I could just walk away from my losses once they hit a certain level. Instead, I'm just losing more and more and more in my 401k. Is it time to get out, now that I've lost half of my life savings? I don't know, I'll feel like a dumbass no matter what.

[Greyhound]

19. Obviously can't say for sure, but it sounds like you are where I was at

in 2003. I still had about half of a very nice pile of cash & stuff, outstanding credit and professional reputation. I hung on and on, just knowing that things would get better sooner or later. At about this time I thought, "what the hell, I can just get the hell out and go start again in another country". I didn't because I was afraid. Afraid that the adjustment to my lifestyle would be too much work, afraid that being American would be too great a stigma to overcome, just afraid of not knowing. Well, now I know.

Things didn't get better, it looks they won't, and I have nothing left.

Maybe there's something for you in my experience.

[GoesTo11]

21. Thanks for the perspective.

I hope something somehow works out for you.

I should just be thankful for what I still have. The one thing I'm trying to do is keep in shape as that will make everything in life a little better and a little easier. That's probably good advice for all of us.

I wish I could get something out of your experience, but really you probably made the right decision given what we knew at the time but it just turned out badly in ways we couldn't truly anticipate. Right now I don't think there's anywhere better to go anyway. I'm just planning to tough it out.

There aren't books for what to do professionally and economically when everything goes bad. There's fake optimistic stuff, and there's spiritual stuff, but how about advice you can really use, you know what I mean?

[Greyhound]

22. C'est la vie,

Looking back with 20/20 hindsight and not knowing what the outcome of that course would have been, I believe that making the leap would have been better. I chose to play it safe and didn't even get the experience of the adventure.

You pays your dues and you takes your chances, I for one of the few times in my life, didn't take the chance because I believed I had too much to lose.

[AngryOldDem]

39. I think Santelli's rant just shows how close we are to a class war.

He can't see the big picture, and neither can the choir to whom he is preaching.

[JackRiddler]

7. 1999: Dow at 36,000

October 10, 2008:
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20081010.htm?T

Today, the Dow closed at 8,579.19 -- down 39.4% from its one year old peak. For some perspective on the magnitude of the current decline, today's chart illustrates how the Dow performed during the first year of all major corrections since 1900. As today's chart illustrates, the first year of the current correction has been more severe than the first year of any correction since 1900 -- and that includes the correction that began in 1929.

And now it's lost another 1000 points. Though do recall, the DOW is an index (meaning it's always got a certain scam quality to it, since one stock will get replaced by another as they rise and fall in value and thus importance).

===

Last day of February, 2000 = last day of the dot-com bubble.

The correction begins literally a few days later, in March 2000. Here is what Cramer had to say, or rather scream, on that day to all of you frackin' no-balls losers.

http://www.thestreet.com/print/story/891820.html

The Winners of the New World

Jim Cramer

02/29/00 - 09:42 AM EST

Editor's Note: James J. Cramer is the keynote speaker at the 6th Annual Internet and Electronic Commerce Conference and Exposition, held today at the Jacob Javits Center in New York City. We're running the full text of that speech here.

You want winners? You want me to put my Cramer Berkowitz hedge fund hat on and just discuss what my fund is buying today to try to make money tomorrow and the next day and the next? You want my top 10 stocks for who is going to make it in the New World? You know what? I am going to give them to you. Right here. Right now.

OK. Here goes. Write them down -- no handouts here!: 724 Solutions (SVNX Quote - Cramer on SVNX - Stock Picks), Ariba (ARBA Quote - Cramer on ARBA - Stock Picks), Digital Island (ISLD Quote - Cramer on ISLD - Stock Picks), Exodus (EXDS Quote - Cramer on EXDS - Stock Picks), InfoSpace.com (INSP Quote - Cramer on INSP - Stock Picks), Inktomi (INKT Quote - Cramer on INKT - Stock Picks), Mercury Interactive (MERQ Quote - Cramer on MERQ - Stock Picks), Sonera (SNRA Quote - Cramer on SNRA - Stock Picks), VeriSign (VRSN Quote - Cramer on VRSN - Stock Picks) and Veritas Software (VRTS Quote - Cramer on VRTS - Stock Picks).

We are buying some of every one of these this morning as I give this speech. We buy them every day, particularly if they are down, which, no surprise given what they do, is very rare. And we will keep doing so until this period is over -- and it is very far from ending. Heck, people are just learning these stories on Wall Street, and the more they come to learn, the more they love and own! Most of these companies don't even have earnings per share, so we won't have to be constrained by that methodology for quarters to come.

There, now that that's done with, can we talk about the methodology that produced those top 10 so that you can understand how, in a universe of a gazillion stocks, we arrived at those, so you too can figure it out? I hope we can because I have another 10 and still another 10 and another. They all do the same thing: They make the Web faster, cheaper, better and easier to access anywhere, anytime. They allow you to get on the Web securely anywhere in the world. They make the Web economy the only economy that matters. That's all they do.

We try to own every one of them. Every single one. And if I had my druthers, I wouldn't own any other stocks in the year 2000. Because these are the only ones worth owning right now in this extremely difficult, extremely narrow stock market. They are the only ones that are going higher consistently in good days and bad. I love every one of them, just as I loathe the rest of the stock universe.

About eight years later, in January 2008, Karl Denninger:

Does anyone remember Jim Cramer's infamous rant on February 29th of 2000, in which he listed 10 stocks "you must buy today for his 'New World'"? They were SNVX, ARBA, ISLD, EXDS, INSP, INKT, MERQ, SNRA, VRSN and VRTS.

Of those SNVX, ISLD, EXDS, INKT, SNRA and VRTS are no longer are listed under their original ticker symbols. Some were outright business failures, others were bought or merged in the collapse that followed - just a couple of months after Cramer's "buy buy buy" call.

Of the "survivors", ARBA traded for $800 back then. It now trades for $11. INSP traded for $1150. It now trades for $18.90. MERQ traded for about $90; it now is $51 (and has the ignobility of being the "best of the bad" on a total return basis!) VRSN traded for $238; it now sells for $37.88.

If you listened to Jim on 2/29/2000, you lost more than 90% of your money.

NINETY PERCENT!

Also, more succinctly:
Quote:
Cramer's FAMOUS call in the early months of 2000 still stands as the crown jewel of pure folly in listening to these people - if you believed him THEN you lost basically ALL of your money!

How does an asshole like this who literally bankrupted people back in the 2000 "tech wreck" get his own TV show? How does he sell ANY books? How is it that his FAMOUS calls over the last few months - CROX anyone - aren't enough all on their own to lead people to show up at his studio with pitchforks and torches?

Its obvious that in this "ADD World" there really are a lot of STUPID people out there, otherwise people like Kudlow and Cramer would have no audience and would be off the air!

Are you one of them?

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2008/01.html

And two months after Denninger's statement, in March 2008, came Cramer's hysterical TV speech on behalf of shares Bear Stearns, as it was already crashing, having come down from $133, and just days before it plunged from $30 to ZERO and was bought out at $2 (later upgraded to $10 in a govt-brokered deal).

That Cramer* walks around not fearing prosecution or the guillotine, in fact still appears with fanfare on the (newly repentant) CNBC, sums up the real problem of our age in a nutshell.

* And Madoff-Thain-Fuld-Rubin-Gramm-Greenspan-Bernanke-Paulson-Summers-Geithner-Kashkari-Clinton-Bush-Weill-Moody's-S&P-SEC &C.

[slipslidingaway]

25. Thankfully I was not listening to Cramer...

between the commentary and charts posted on silicon investor, my newly purchased Edwards and Magee book and the stockcharts and contrary investor websites we kept our tech bubble gains.

I do remember Peter Welch appearing on CNBC several times to assure people that their retirement accounts were for the long haul...you cannot time the market.

Now some of those same people on the message boards are not comfortable with the approach being taken by this administration to bail us out.

:(


Another chart of the day FWIW.

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090213.htm?T

[Median Democrat]

8. Some Of The Individual Stocks Are Amazing. General Electric at $10?

Also, have you seen the dividend yields? I can't get yield like that on a junk bond. Look at Pfizer. This market is insane.

[tjwash]

11. If anyone had any money, it would be a total buyers market.

I purchased a few hundred shares of qcom when it was at 29. If it dips below there again, I'm buying more.

[Selatius]

13. Problem is money is tight, and banks are still being tight-fisted with lending.

Liquidity is still a major issue.

[tjwash]

20. Your telling me...I have perfect credit and have never missed a mortgage payment.

Hell, my credit score is sitting at 748. I made a call to a few banks to see if I could bump my mortgage down a percent, and the fuckers ALL acted like I wanted their first born.

[Mike 03]

15. After months of saying we wouldn't see the bottom for some time, I'm actually beginning to think we

might be seeing the bottom. That is not to say this is over, by a longshot, but that we might rise and repeatedly test this base, but I can't see the market going much lower than this. And I'm a super-Bear, not a Bull. I'm 80% cash now and have been for almost a year.

Let's hope things look up.

[ret5hd]

16. i predict dow 5000-6000

[RagAss]

17. 4600 by October

[Greyhound]

23. I'm curious how you arrived at that number.

I picked the same about three or four months ago, and I think we'll hit it about Oct.

[seemslikeadream]

35. me too

[seemslikeadream]

34. I'll second that

[Mike 03]

18. Very interesting. I take these predictions seriously.

I will probably stay in cash for at least the next twelve months.

[GoesTo11]

26. Down another 20% -33%? Certainly possible.

Right now it's pretty clear that it's going to go down more before it goes up. We don't know how far. This isn't a matter of watching the charts and looking for when investors get greedy or whatever, it's about how do we figure out what the country / world can do to get back on track, how long will that take and what will the way be?

[Median Democrat]

27. The Market Will Overshoot. The Question Is When?

If only I had a magical eight ball to know when the market is at or near bottom. The PE ratios are enticing, but do they properly account for the possible fall in future earnings? Otherwise, GE with a PE of 6 would look amazing. The issue is that GE's earnings may fall in the future so that it is not a bargain.

I am sure that the bottom will come and go some day, and 10 years from now, whether the bottom is 7,000, 6,000 or 5,000 I will say, "It was so obvious!"

Then again, hindsight is 20/20.

[natrat]

37. who knows maybe this is the L shaped bottom that is flat for decades

[scarletwoman]

29. Do we actually need Wall Street? Seriously. What function does Wall Street serve?

If farmer A grows alfalfa, and consumer B wants to buy alfalfa, why do they need Wall Street?

If factory A makes widgets and consumer B wants to buy a widget, why do they need Wall Street?

[theboss]

32. How does Farmer A buy his farm?

How does Factory A get built?

Unless you have $100 million in your bank account, you can't just build a factory. Someone has to fund it.

I know an alarming number of investment bankers. The issue is simply this: no one is lending any money for anyone to do anything. So...everyone is just kind of stuck. Until the credit markets get unclogged, little is going to happen. And it will take the housing market getting under control for the credit markets to work.

This is going to be studied in Econ textbooks for centuries.

[scarletwoman]

41. So, a bank takes in deposits from savers. The bank lends this money out and charges interest.

Thus, the bank makes a profit from the interest it charges on the money it lends out, as long as the lendee keeps paying on the loan. Where does Wall Street fit in?

sw

[county worker]

33. Wall street use to serve the purpose of making capital available for business.

Then all the new "products" started appearing and no longer did you look for dividends but you looked for short term gains.

This economy is the great leveler and we will begin to think long term and simplicity again.

If I were a writer and great thinker I would write a book about how to live simply and well by looking back on how it was done before the advent of gadgets we don't really need and the idea of taking care of number one only became the rage. I'm thinking that communes will form again. Sharing the work and spoils

[scarletwoman]

42. "used to" is the operative term here. These days, Wall Street seems to be completely divorced from

the "real ecomony" of producing material items of tangible value for people to purchase.

I always think about how trade worked in pre-Columbian America. Your tribe produced lots of maize. Out on the coast, there were tribes who refined sea salt. A traveling trader would show up once a year with a load of salt for the maize growers, who would trade their dried maize for the salt. The trader would return to the coast with the maize, and everyone on both ends of the trade would enjoy salted popcorn.

To me, that's a "real economy". Trading one commodity for another, so that everyone involved in the trade benefits.

Money isn't "real", it's merely a symbol. Making money on money is an exercise in unreality. If there's no tangible material thing behind the symbol, then it's just an exercise of geometrically increasing delusions. There's nothing worth preserving about such an activity, imho.

sw

[Liberal_in_LA]

31. Dow under 7400 this morning

[natrat]

36. got my buy orders in for 5800-6300--god help me

[ozu]

38. lol @ my 401k

weeeeeeeeeeeeeeee