George W. Bush's New Theory for Warfare; My Enemy's Enemy is My Enemey

[madhoosier]

The stated reason for Bush’s “surge” of troops into Baghdad makes no sense from a strategic standpoint. The Shia militias that Bush allegedly seeks to disarm have not been attacking American troops, rather the Sunni insurgents, who are fighting a civil war with the Shia, are responsible for nearly all attacks against American soldiers. However Iran, recipient of much Bush saber rattling and soon another Aircraft Carrier Attack Group, are Shia.


Prior to the State of the Union Address the President’s speech on Iraq January 10th was so blatantly a foundation for war with Iran that Tony Snow on the 12th labeled the discussion that erupted throughout the Internet “an urban legend” that America was planning an attack on Iran. The reason Snow used the pejorative “urban legend” to describe the discussion on the Internet was that the same discussions had broken into the main stream media and by using such a pejorative description as “urban legend” the Bush administration was sending a clear message to the main stream media to stop talking about a war with Iran.

As Snow’s “urban legend” press briefing was taking place CNN had Globalsecurity.org’s John Pike as a guest, Mr. Pike noted that two technological events scheduled in Iraq make the likelihood of an American confrontation higher. During the coming 10 Day Dawn Celebration of the 1979 Iranian revolution February 1-10 Iran will announce that their 3,000 centrifuge cascade is operational. The nuclear fuel enrichment program will be able to enrich enough uranium to produce one nuclear weapon a year. Mr. Pike also noted that in March Russia will deliver 80 tons of fuel for Iran’s nuclear reactor. Mr. Pike concluded that either event could be viewed as a “Red Line” event by the United States or Israel to proceed with attacks to take out those facilities.

In the State of the Union address, by substituting Shia extremist for direct references to Iran the message that the war in Middle East was set to expand was reinforced.

<blockquote>“The Shia and Sunni extremists are different faces of the same totalitarian threat,” Bush said. “Whatever slogans they chant, when they slaughter the innocent they have the same wicked purposes. They want to kill Americans, kill democracy in the Middle East, and gain the weapons to kill on an even more horrific scale.”...

The United Nations has imposed sanctions on Iran, and made it clear that the world will not allow the regime in Tehran to acquire nuclear weapons.</blockquote>

It is no random coincidence that Patriot anti-missile missiles are being deployed the Persian Gulf region and a second aircraft carrier attack group is sailing toward Iran at this moment. It is not random that Admiral William Fallon, an expert in large scale combined aerial warfare has been placed in charge of CENTCOM, the command currently fighting two ground wars against insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan. If war breaks out with Iran Admiral Fallon would also be in charge of that war as well.


I believe the decision to bomb Iran’s infrastructure back to the 19th century has been made because Iran’s centrifuge cascade is set to go online and Russia is going to deliver the uranium fuel rods to Iran’s first large nuclear reactor in March, the spent fuel from this reactor could supply enough materials for sixty or more bombs.


http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-timeline.htm#070201



It is also no random occurrence that I filled my gas tank yesterday for $1.83 a gallon, the Saudis are producing petroleum at peak capacity, or emptying their vulnerable storage facilities in anticipation of tanker traffic through the Persian Gulf being halted, remember the dirt cheap gas prices as the last two American elections approached, well gas is cheaper today than either one of those two time periods and the Saudis have no qualms whatsoever in using the gas pump as a political tool.


The reasons Bush will state to justify his attack on Iran are the two nuclear advances cited above. The real reason will be to reduce Iran’s capabilities as the dominant Moslem political power in the Middle East. With the collapse of Iraqi society and many of the former middle class of Iraq refugees and the political capital to continually deploy troops into Iraq running thin, should America’s forces be reduced in Iraq there would be nothing to prevent Iran from advancing through Iraq. Should Iran choose after an American troop pullout there would be very little to stop the expansion of Iran’s domination across the Shia crescent of the Middle East. Should Iran so choose there would be very little to stop the expansion of Iran to include Mecca.


I think Vice President Cheney’s sudden trip to consult with Saudi King Abdullah over the Thanksgiving holiday was to assure the Saudi King that the Bush administration would not allow Iran’s newly dominate position to reshape the balance of power in the Middle East.


Given the generations old alliance between the House of Saud and the House of Bush there is no way in hell that either of these dynasties will allow such a shift in the balance of power in the Middle East, especially when a Bush sibling happens to be the Commander in Chief of America’s military, as well as the self appointed Decider.


The scenario of an attack on Iran also explains Bush’s “surge” of troops into Baghdad, it’s highly probable that when America starts bombing Iran that some of the pro-Iranian militias will turn on their American allies. Extra troops would be needed to protect Baghdad’s Green Zone, a necessity likely anticipated by the Commanders in CENTCOM who’ve demanded the “surge” as a requirement to implement Bush’s attack on Iran.

Should military attacks be used against the two nuclear facilities Bush will also order broad attacks against Iran’s civilian and military infrastructure in an attempt to weaken Iran’s ability to project it’s dominance over the Middle East. Expect attacks against Iran’s electric and communications grid, dams, utilities, bridges, ports, and key industries. Expect Iran to counter with missile attacks against their Sunni neighbors and Persian Gulf shipping and since Iranians occupy many positions in the Middle East’s oil industry sabotage throughout the industry is a real possibility.

What is also a real possibility is that once again Bush will not achieve the outcome from war he expects. Rather than an attack on Iran being a single event limited by the range of Iran’s missiles and their lack of nuclear weapons, the reactions of China, Russia, and the Moslem world could have dire consequences for America.

When starting a war the wise should consider that my enemy’s friends may well become my enemies, a doctrine of war Bush has not considered.

[ShortnFiery]

1. I'm getting the impression that Pooty Putin may subtly remind

dimson of this fact in the near future.

Perhaps Putin will release a statement to the effect, "Syria and Iran our OUR allies, be advised. :evilgrin: ;)

Let's hope such an action scares the crap out of Dear Leader's handlers and they successfully trim his "warmongering" sails?

[niceypoo]

2. War = contracts for campaign doners and party hacks