Attack on Iran: Trouble in Paradise?

[Junkdrawer]

The invasion of Iraq happened because there was a “coalition of the willing” of the biggest US Foreign Policy heavyweights:

1.) Big Oil
2.) The Administration
3.) The Military Industrial Complex
4.) Israel
5.) Saudi Arabia

Now, not all the above coalition is signed on to an invasion/attack on Iran. Let’s look at the above players in detail:

1.) Big Oil:
Big Oil wanted the oil in Iraq. Iraq has the lion’s share of the under-exploited oil in the region. Big Oil is in the process of getting EXTREMELY favorable terms for the drilling of Iraqi oil. Chaos in Iraq got them these favorable terms, but once the ink is dry on the deal, Big Oil will be pushing to actually bring stability to Iraq. An attack on Iran will make any attempt to exploit oil ANYWHERE in the Middle East nearly impossible for decades. James Baker is the voice of Big Oil and Saudi Arabia. The recommendations of the Iraqi Study Group pretty much spells out what Big Oil wants. They DON’T want an attack on Iran. Saber rattling to intimidate Iran into a more “helpful” role maybe, but no attack.

2.) The Administration
The Administration has broken so many laws to make the invasion of Iraq happen, it boggles the mind. The farther away from a massive terror attack/new invasion, the more jail cells figure into their future. So, of course, they want a new war. But this Administration is a creature of Big Oil. So Cheney is probably appealing to as many power brokers as he can, but, in the end, he’ll follow orders.

3.) The Military Industrial Complex
These ghouls make money on war and chaos. Probably the biggest fans of an Iranian invasion.

4.) Israel
Once Iraq was invaded, if Iran didn’t have a nuclear program, they would be idiots if they didn’t start one. Fast. And Israel would be its target. So, of course Israel is pushing for an attack on Iran. A while back, someone said Big Oil and Israel were allies. I said “fellow travelers”. And here’s where they part company.

5.) Saudi Arabia
As usual, the interests of Saudi Arabia and Big Oil are almost identical. While the Saudis do have ancient religious antagonisms with Shiite Iran, I think the interests of keeping the oil flowing will win in the end.

So, the box score is 2 for, 2 against and the Administration split down the middle. My guess is that, as long as Iran lets Big Oil have its way in Iraq, no attack – even if Iran goes forward with its nuclear program.

[DCKit]

1. Intelligently written

Nice job.

[Junkdrawer]

2. Thanks.

:hi:

[Junkdrawer]

3. .

[legin]

4. Good analysis

I've been thinking that there may be many different teams in this war, it's not a sort of zero sum two-team war like american football, but more of a system (eco system) with the different parts changinging their relationship to each other with different external circumstances.