Robert Baer: Is a U.S.-Iran War Inevitable? (**Must Read**)

[sabra]

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1604546,00.html

Is a U.S.-Iran War Inevitable?
Thursday, Mar. 29, 2007 By ROBERT BAER

You wouldn't be wrong to wonder if Iran hasn't lost its mind seizing the fifteen British marines and sailors, and in so doing, handing Bush a causus belli even he couldn't have imagined.

Feeling cornered in its nuclear confrontation, Tehran is trying to take the offensive against Britain. Will it backfire?

But then again you'd be missing the grim fatalism that has settled over Iran of late, the resigned belief that a war with the U.S. is all but inevitable. This week Iranian diplomats are telling interlocutors that, yes, they realize seizing the Brits could lead to a hot war. But, they point out, it wasn't Iran that started taking hostages — it was the U.S., when it arrested five members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Erbil in Northern Iraq on January 11. They are diplomats, the Iranians insist. They were in Erbil with the approval of the Kurds and therefore, they argue, are under the protection of the Vienna Convention.

...

The Bush Administration is doing nothing to allay Tehran's paranoia. With the largest build up in the Gulf since the start of this Iraq war, it's actually fanning it. You have to wonder if Bush is counting on the Iranians over-reacting like they did when they seized our embassy in 1979. And lest we forget, this was driven by paranoia that we were plotting to destroy the revolution.

...

I called up an Arab Gulf security official and asked him what he thought about it all. He said the view from his side of the Gulf is that if Iran does not soon release the Brits, a war between the U.S. and Iran is in the cards. "I for one am taking all the cash I can out of my ATM," he said before he hanging up.


Robert Baer, a former CIA field officer assigned to the Middle East, is the author of See No Evil and, most recently, the novel Blow the House Down

[seemslikeadream]

1. Iran is in the cards

n/t

[gatorboy]

2. So when Iran captured brisitsh soldiers in 2004 why wasn't it a big deal?

Was that a botched attempt by Bush to start a war that failed.

Or is the MSM simply egging everyone on for a conflict this time out.

[no_hypocrisy]

4. Maybe because * didn't have all his ducks lined up in a line at that time.

He has the prerogative to begin military folly at his whim right now.

[Mandate My Ass]

6. This is a very convoluted analysis/explanation IMHO

If Iran was so fatalistic about a war with US/UK, why didn't they start one when the US kidnapped the envoys in Iraq? That was a legit casus belli but they didn't act on it. This sounds like a death by cop scenario. I'll grab their soldiers so the superior military force will attack me.

[RedEarth]

3. Interesting and alarming article......Thanks for posting sabra........KR

[sabra]

5. Baer has the credentials... I fear where this is going.

[CJCRANE]

7. Blair has maneuvered Britain

into a situation where Iran is now an enemy of his country*, just like it is/was towards America.

Blair is binding Britain into America's feuds.

*And RW Brits are now worked up into a fury and want to nuke Iran just like their American counterparts.

[Initech]

8. There's no doubt in my mind that the republicons want to go to war with Iran

That is why they must be stopped at all costs.

[Leopolds Ghost]

9. This is the man on whom SYRIANA was based.

Just thought you might like to know that.

[peacetalksforall]

10. Yep - looks like the British set up their own soldiers. THE WAY

TO WAR. Thanks Blair and the Royal House of Britain.

Show us that you didn't.

[shadowknows69]

11. But they had that picture of the GPS

and the cargo ship they promised us hadn't moved since the incident.

[peacetalksforall]

12. Are you saying that GPS proves that the cargo ship was in Iraqi

waters and the Iranians invaded? How is a person to know where the line is if they haven't been able to figure out a line in centuries?

Q? Why were the British there? A? Protect oil shipments. ???

That would mean that the oil ship was out-of-bounds or in-bounds?

Whose oil ship? Under what flag? Under what contract? With service paid for by whom?

Serious - I don't know the details of the cargo ship and I think it makes a big difference on the way to settling this and deciding which watersit was in - because it implies that this path has been followed previously. Or not? Makes a difference.

[shadowknows69]

14. That's what they're feeding us

I forgot my sarcasm tag sorry.

[ShortnFiery]

13. Why didn't we bomb China when they capture our spy plane and crew?

Oh, that's right - COMMUNIST China sponsors out debt. :puke:

[mc jazz]

15. Blairs body language

Well I watched Blair closely when he was interviewed
Supposedly he's a good speaker, I never thought he was, all he does is wave his arms around and attempts to whine his way to the moral high ground
Anyway, his eyes flickered like Ted Haggards all the time, it was obvious that politics made the lives of the hostages irrelevant and he was continuing to use them for propaganda value
Blair is a terrible liar and I think mentally unstable, still Brown is worse, that guy is so bad a liar it's embarrasing, no one I know likes him and his phony charm and his lame attempts at humour. he will not get far as pm I'd bet £5 on it!

[BeHereNow]

16. People in Iran believe so. Many trying to leave before it's too late.

The word on the street in Iran is that it is a matter of when, not if.
It is very difficult to get out of Iran, but many are trying.
This from an acquaintance who is Armenian/Iranian.
She has family there whom she is very worried about.
They are trying to get out of the country because
apparently everyone in Iran fully expects the attack.

I'm afraid for the entire world.

BHN