What do you think will happen to Iraq when the US pulls out?

[Swede]

I think Iraq will be Balkanized after a brutal civil war. Ethnic cleansing will be horrific. I hope Saudi Arabia and Iran will keep each other in check. The Turks are the big unknown,can the West reign them in with regards to an independent Kurdistan?

But the US has to get out,now.

[Xipe Totec]

1. The same thing that will happen if we don't pull out

We have become spectators to this process.

The only question is how close do we want to be to the action, and how many lives we're willing to pay for the privilege of watching up-close?

[MichiganVote]

3. Second that.

[Warren Stupidity]

2. "Iraq will be Balkanized after a brutal civil war."

That is what is happening now, Iraq is in the midst of a brutal civil war. It would result in the division of the former state of Iraq, however our fortified bases and force presence and pigheaded determination to retain the nominal government in power prevent the civil war from coming to its inevitable conclusion. We are simply prolonging the carnage.

[Fermezlabush]

4. Party for a week then resume clobbering each other

The shooting in the air will turn back to civil war.

[Truthiness Inspector]

13. Very creative user name!

Just had to comment on that. :)

As far as what will happen if/when the US pulls out...that's a tough call. Hard to think of chaos vs. chaos.

[Joe for Clark]

5. Oh, it is the question.

If it were true - that it is just a fight among the same ethnics - it is one thing.

It is not though.

It is very deep histroy - the arabs and the non-arabs. I think a scary history.

It will break in the north - and we will probably find ourselves in a decision -between the Turks - our NATO ally - and the Kurds - our unofficial ally.

What do we do - violate a NATO treaty. To protect who??


Good question you pose!

Joe3

[Glorfindel]

6. Like the late, unlamented Yugoslavia

Iraq will disintegrate into 6 or 8 mini-states, all happily killing and stealing from one another as they have for millenia. If the Turks were wise, they'd grant almost complete autonomy to their Kurds and nip the problem in the bud, but that will probably never happen. The big, gnawing problem is the ocean of oil beneath Iraq, but maybe it will dawn on them how happy and prosperous the tiny emirates of the UAE are, and the Iraqis will profit by their example. Sadly, the best thing that could happen to Iraq would probably be another secular dictator like Saddam Hussein but without his murderous propensities. Western-style "democracy" is just not suitable for some countries, and it's foolish and condescending of the U.S. to try to impose it on others when we don't even practice it ourselves. I agree with the OP, whatever the hap, it's time for us to get out of Iraq, now.

[Joe for Clark]

12. Here is the big problem for us - Turkey is afraid of the Kurds.

Maybe they should be.

There are ethnic situations going on there that have existed for a thousand years.

Any solution we may have that empowers one over the other is a problem - by definition.

The whole problem becomes a three (or four) dimensional problem that only Einstein could solve.

Assuming he could.

This is REALLY serious - ain't no way out here.

That is a major reason I am of the "Get one do over" camp. - I don't see another way.

Joe

[Horse with no Name]

7. Georgie opened Pandora's box

There is no stopping the inevitable. Americans will be forced to watch the results of this illegal war and what was allowed to be done in our names.

[Joe for Clark]

17. He is not relevant anymore -

Whatever happens = the consequences will go on a long time after he retires.

This is just pure practical americana at this point.

We will in all likelyhood face the situaion where one of our allies opposes another.

It was going to happen one day, I suppose - and now it is.

SO - what do we do now?? We are damned either way -

Joe

[Jennicut]

8. Its going to hell. Sorry, but it just is.

This place has never been pretty. Civil war forever. Unless another dictator steps in. The place is toast.

[AlCzervik]

9. a civil war without the media coverage, it's going to happen eventually

we pull out today or next year it can't be stopped imo, we need to GTF out now, no yesterday, no we never should have gone there.

[tetedur]

10. There will be a bloody struggle for supremacy

wheither we leave tomorrow or 10 years from now. Al Qaeda will not "take over." The way the Republicans frame their argument is disgraceful. They give power to the enemy when they say that the Iraqis will just roll over and let them take over their country. A "strong man" will have to arise and take power suppressing the different sects the way Saddam did.

[Erika]

11. Ethnic cleansing and brutatility is taking place now

In all of the ME, there is only central government in the big cities.

The Al Qaeda operated in Northern Iraq as much as Saddam hated them. The new government in Afghanistan only controls Kabul. The same in Pakistan and Turkey.

W's vision of democracy translates into taking advantage of their oil reserves.

[TwilightGardener]

14. We won't pull out--not if we have a Republican in '08--but it will still

be a mess. If we DO manage to pull out most troops, there will be chaos and bloodshed, but sadly we must accept that and do what we can to minimize it.

[chknltl]

15. All those poor Iraqis who supported the Americans...

...who are still in Iraq, and there will be tens of thousands of them, from interpreters and informants to cooks and cashiers will suffer the same fate those Kurds did after the first gulf war.

Oh and just in case there is one person here in the DU who thinks bush is going to show some support for those Iraqi citizens who believed in the notion that America was actually interested in bringing Democracy to Iraq, I have a bridge deal for you.

btw President Ford, (note capital F), admitted that America should be responsible for the tens of thousands of South Vietnamese who showed support to America when we were over there. He oversaw the immigration of hundreds of thousands of Vietnamese into America...an act which saved their lives.

Mark my words, bush will turn his back on those Iraqi citizens who aided America during the occupation thereby condemning those folks and their families to a fate..... yep bloodbath

Then the bushies will blame the Democrats for micromanaging the war into this tragic loss and a few DJs on progressive radio channels will be pleased to reveal that it was really bush who turned his back on those particular Iraqis leaving them behind as cannon fodder instead of rescuing them and sending them someplace safe because lord knows we can't bring all them terrorists here like we did after Viet Nam

Then American Idol will have it's two hour presentation and folks here in DU will be bitching about American Idol......

[TwilightGardener]

16. I don't think you'll get any takers on your bridge deal--you're right

that the Iraqi people are the last thing on Chimpy's mind. They serve our purposes, or they are our enemies--that's it. And how much are they gonna fucking hate us, for generations to come, when they realize this?

[Psephos]

18. The power vacuum will draw in other large countries to take our place

Iraq sits atop one of the great reservoirs of oil in the world. It has an educated populace. It is located in a geographically strategic position to influence the transport of oil to the rest of the world.

Anyone who thinks China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, (fill in the blank) is going to sit by and watch a bunch of religious nutjobs kill each other over and over without "nobly" intervening is smoking better weed than I got. They won't make the mistake of doing it overtly, though.

Short term: the blood bath will accelerate at a furious pace. But so what? They're brown people, right? And like someone upthread said, they can't handle democratic government. Nope, their best hope is another strongman dictator.

Long term: old boss out, new boss in. Nothing changes. Except the US won't have any input. I don't see how that is in US interests.

This war is an damnable atrocity, mostly because no one foresaw what would happen after the Saddam statues were pulled down and the mission was "accomplished." No one thought past their ideology. Now it's a giant sucking mess.

Georgieboy hung everyone out to dry by not planning for (or refusing to see) what comes next. Are we doing the same thing by militating for total withdrawal?

[thinkbridge]

19. They might actually ask someone else to help out

Being as Iraq contains a population of educated people, and
educated people tend to do what they are able to do and ask
for help in areas they are not able to handle, so Iraqis will
ask the help of nations whom they perceive as not interested
in tearing them to pieces or pillaging their resources or
bombing them to death or flaring old flames. Of course, those
other nations will most likely also have their own, not
Iraq's, interests at heart, and so who knows how it will play
out...
There's a general consensus that violence will increase, but I
don't see that it can get any worse than it is now. The U.S.
presence actually incites violence, I think, and creates a
general sense of impotence and lack of representation in
government. Not that a dictatorship was representation, but
that there was a sort of cultural-social cohesion that made
certain basic courtesies and economic exchange possible. The
U.S. has destroyed that. By withdrawal, maybe the dust will
settle and the human element can kick in, instead of the 2D
cartoon warlife the society is forced to contend with now -
and warlife lends to extremism and lack of mutual trust or
sympathy. But the economy and infrastructure is such a mess,
it can't be just left as is. Someone must help.

[newyawker99]

20. Hi thinkbridge!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Jacobin]

21. Hi Thinkbridge

Welcome to DU.

I've read that about 2 million Iraqis have left Iraq...those with the means which leads me to believe a lot of the middle class has left. Doctors, engineers, etc. The people who could rebuild the country.

Bush has set off a chain of events that will rattle the Middle East for generations. An enormous strategic blunder of epic proportions.

There is no good outcome.

the only prediction i can make is that the Iraqis who worked for Americans will be slaughtered, except for those we allow to leave Iraq and come to the US or go to other neutral countries.

[Toots]

22. The USA has no intention of ever pulling out of Iraq

We may reduce the size of our force there but we are there for the long haul. The largest embassy on earth is being built and over fourteen permanent bases are also being completed. Like it or not the USA runs on oil. Our military runs on oil. This invasion and occupation has not been by accident. The security of the USA depends upon us having a continuous source of oil. The USA is acting in the only manner it knows how. When it wants or needs something it just takes it. It is sort of like a world wide eminent domain. The USA has done this from it's conception. Sometimes we can negotiate a "bargain" like the Louisiana Purchase or "Seward's Folly" but mostly we just take, as in California and Texas and all the Indian Lands. :shrug:

[rebel with a cause]

23. Hell will remain hell with only a few changes.

It will all depend on who the new players are. And remember that just because our troops may pull out does not mean that we will not still have a presence there. As long as there is money to be made, our corporations will remain there and their private contractors will be there also. But we shouldn't worry about them too much, because we (as a nation) may soon follow them into this same type of hell. Only time will tell what will happen to us all.

[OmmmSweetOmmm]

24. We cannot afford this war. If we pull out now

it will be horrible and the atrocities are going be obscene and we can lay that all at the feet of the ideologues that probably played Risk as teens (and everyone knows that Risk results in conquering and not occupation), and had no plan for the peace.

I hate what we have done to the Iraqi people and was against the war the moment I had an inkling it was coming down the pike, and I want us out now. The Iraqis have to be convinced that they have to take control of their own country and their own lives. I think that majority are still in shock from the shock and awe, and have to live from moment to moment in order to survive. We can't do it. We are untrusted, we are occupiers. We need peacekeeping forces in there from around the region and Europe and work it out amongst themselves. At one point I thought partition would be viable, and how many died in the partition of India and Pakistan? How do you tell people who have their family roots in an area for generations and told to move due to their religion?

Meanwhile, we cannot afford this war, our treasure is being plundered by the Skull & Bones pirate. We cannot afford this endless war that might take down our government as Afghanistan did to the USSR. We cannot afford this war, while there are growing numbers of our children are being brought up in poverty and our country is turning into a third world country. We cannot afford any more lives of military dying for lies. We cannot afford this godforsaken war.

[donsu]

25. they will take some time to sort themselves out and run the country

the way they want to.

if will/may be bloody.

various entities will try to interfere to gain Iraq's oil.

however, they won't be following our troops home. it's depleted uranium poisoning that will follow the troops

[Leopolds Ghost]

26. The US Will Never Pull Out.

Hillary, Kerry and other Democratic leaders say we must maintain a permanent troop presence, as we do in South Korea, to protect and defend the oil law.

They will not enter the cities or intervene in the future bloodbath, however.