Iran Thinks We’re About to Attack – So They Grabbed the British Sailors…

[Junkdrawer]

Call them captives, call them hostages, I think they’re not going to be released anytime soon.

Look, I’ve posted before that I think the Administration is split down the middle: Some want to attack, some want to make Iran think we’re about to attack. Either way, it worked: Iran now thinks an attack is imminent so they did the only thing they think will forestall an attack.

BTW: Normally, the threat of economic sanctions may have stayed their hand. But when the Security Council imposed strict sanctions this week, the last inhibition went.

[Eugene]

1. Iran's government does not work as a single unit.

The competing hard-line factions sometimes take matters into their own hands.
The Revolutionary Guard is one such faction and IRG has done provocative acts
before, like flying drones over U.S. warships.

The British sailor incident may be a case where the extremists take the
initiative and drag national policy along, like 1979.

[Junkdrawer]

2. And in 1979 Khomeini thought that a US-backed counter coup was imminent...

so he got behind their actions.

There are definitely precedents for this strategy...

[Deja Q]

4. And Jimmy Carter's intentions, while noble, had ZERO effect.

http://www.infoplease.com/ce6/history/A0825448.html

Excerpt:
President Carter applied economic pressure by halting oil imports from Iran and freezing Iranian assets in the United States. At the same time, he began several diplomatic initiatives to free the hostages, all of which proved fruitless. On Apr. 24, 1980, the United States attempted a rescue mission that failed. After three of eight helicopters were damaged in a sandstorm, the operation was aborted; eight persons were killed during the evacuation. Secretary of State Cyrus Vance, who had opposed the action, resigned after the mission's failure.

I don't think it's off-kilter to say the same freezing-of-asset tactics would work this time around. Especially when they didn't before.

:shrug:

Interesting and ironic. What caused Carter's vote-out may be the same for the Republicans in 2008.

[NNN0LHI]

3. I think it had more to do with the show trial Bush was about to have for the 5 Iranian captives

It would have finished up with Bush hanging them right before next years election to fire his base up. Those plans are now on hold.

Don

[Junkdrawer]

5. ...And they couldn't be sure Dubya would care about US hostages...

so they took the Brits...

[Junkdrawer]

6. Faced with the same situation in 1991, Saddam took hostages...

but he released his hostages.

So, how did that work out for him????

[Nickster]

7. I think it's all about the oil. Remember, Iran is having economic difficulty and their President

is the one to blame for that. The one thing they rely on most is revenue from oil, and they've been raking in the dough on high oil prices. They've been hurting more and more as the price of oil slid over the past several months. Now this "hostage crisis" is going on and they are directly reaping the benefits. I believe the number I heard was an extra 10 million dollars a day on the increased price in oil since this all started. They'll give the prisoners up, but I believe they'll need some of those sanctions loosened up for it to happen.