Medical experts cast doubt on the actual danger of swine flu

[azmouse]

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2009/05/02/20090502flu0502.html


More than a month into the swine-flu outbreak that has now affected 15 countries, medical experts are wondering aloud whether the contagious disease will ever become the pandemic that everyone fears.


In the aftermath of the anthrax attacks in 2001 and the more recent avian-flu scares, Boulton said the nation's public-health and security infrastructure "might be primed a bit for overresponse" to potential health threats.

For experts to compare the current outbreak to the 1918 pandemic is "pretty irresponsible" at this stage, Boulton said.

Boulton said it's "highly improbable" that the U.S. swine-flu death toll will even approach the estimated 36,000 Americans who die each year of seasonal flu.

[mwb970]

1. "Primed a bit for overresponse"! That's a good one.

The whole country is primed to overreact to everything from swine flu to teleprompters.

[azmouse]

7. It's all the 24 hour 'news' channels.

They have to have something to say and have to create reasons for people to stay tuned. It's why they breathlessly report every missing blonde girl to the whole country when they're really just stories for the local community where it's occurring.

[stray cat]

2. Most of us will be on the right side of the percentages - small consolation

to whatever number fall on the wrong side.

[BlooInBloo]

3. The omgwe'reallgonnadie flu mongers will never admit to being wrong, naturally.

[phantom power]

6. You know...

I did not notice a single post in the last two weeks where anybody overreacted to this. I saw some posts recommending that people wash their hands and stay home if they were sick. I posted a CDC home-preparation checklist. I saw some people asking if they should buy face masks (the consensus is "not worth it").

Did I miss something good?

[azmouse]

8. I don't think I've seen anyone here really totally over-reacting...

It seems to be mostly the 'news' channels that need something to report that created this story and tried to create a panic among people so everyone would stay tuned awaiting the next announcement. The 'news' channels should be ashamed.

[BlooInBloo]

9. 1918! 1918! 1918!

:rofl:

[azmouse]

11. You want to know what the funny (odd) part about that is...

Most of the American people didn't even know about the flu pandemic of 1918 til they were told to be afraid, very afraid, of it.

[PatSeg]

21. One of the reasons the 1918 pandemic

has been sited, is the fact that the initial cases were relatively mild with few deaths. Though the media overplayed this flu, we live in a time when major outbreaks can be prevented and contained, and the media aside, I think it was handled well for the most part.

[Matariki]

14. are you kidding?

I posted a link to an article pointing out that the yearly death toll of seasonal influenza far exceeds the number of people who have died from the h1n1 flu. You would have thought I peed in someone's lunch from the outrage. I was told I was 'spreading lies', 'had my head in the sand' and worse. Someone suggested that telling people 'to go on with their daily lives' was irresponsible. All that from posting an article not too dissimilar to the one in this OP. In fact, I'm surprised the same people haven't descended on this thread. Perhaps the fear factor has finally run it's course.

[azmouse]

17. I'm sorry I missed your thread. Sounds interesting.

I wasn't reading every flu thread. There were just too many.
I only saw one DUer repeatly post flu items and she seemed really irate that everyone wasn't as worked up over the flu as she was. But that is all I've come across. I guess after seeing that I stopped reading many of the flu posts.

[BlooInBloo]

20. "There were just too many (flu threads)." - But yet - you had no idea people were overreacting?

:rofl:

[kestrel91316]

4. Monday morning quarterbacking is what this is called.

When the news broke about this, it sounded like it was more deadly than a mere week of study and data has shown it to be. It would have been completely unacceptable for public health agencies to respond any LESS than they did.

For the record, based only on confirmed deaths and confirmed illnesses, it still has a mortality rate of over 3%. Seasonal flu has a mortality rate of .25-1.0%.

People who pooh-pooh the response and say this is "nothing" are ignorant fools, IMHO. It's a good thing that SCIENTISTS are in charge of public health at CDC and WHO and health departments nationwide.

[phantom power]

5. +1

You only get one chance (at most) to contain something like this. If you've got an initial estimate of 6% mortality and cases showing up in 9 countries, there's really only one right course of action. Pull the rip cord and activate the pandemic response plans.

[azmouse]

10. I still don't understand why they felt the need to compare this to the 1918 flu

unless they were trying to create a panic... or perhaps get the American people to focus on something other than the torture memos.
It was over-reacting on the news media's part.

[Hannah Bell]

15. nor why folks here did, either. it was irresponsible, & contrary to the

rationalizations, it wasn't "information".

[phantom power]

18. That's no mystery. Because the initial mortality estimates were 6%.

[rustydog]

12. The CDC and WHO have not over reacted to the swine flu

The media helped perpetuate an error in definition of Pandemic. which means worldwide transmission of disease. Not lethality.

At the start of the press and their entertainment driven ratings grabbing reporting style, I began reading CDC reports and WHO reports on the outbreak and realized the media was not reporting responsibly.

A flu that may not be any more dangerous than seasonal flu but is spreading rapidly because it is a new strain is not news. the deaths of citizens in mexico is and the death of an infant in Texas is.
What if the infection rate in Mexico is in the millions already yet the illness and death rate remains as is?

DAMN, nothing to bring viewers back for the 6pm news!

But it is very prudent for the government to mobilize in areas they have, nothing has been hurt by this. No "Good Job" as people hang from rooftops response like the last administration.

I work in a hospital and attended daily meetings going over what CDC reports and what cases we were seeing and what our response would be.
No one in the govt panicked, no one running our health care facility panicked, we only took steps to be prepared for a possible huge influx of flu patients.

The panic was on people who watched network news and listened to FOX blame the flu on illegal immigrants and the rush to hospitals began.

Place the blame where it belongs, firmly on sloppy, ratings-grabbing entertainment driven news divisions.

[Hannah Bell]

16. i don't think most public health people fed the hype either. but there were

a couple of exceptions. for example, the guy who announced "there will be deaths" at the presser. i think that was an irresponsible statement without context.

[itsrobert]

13. The agencies attacked the "pandemic" as an exercise

They all wrote their plans in 2005 and exercised them. The trouble is the exercises forces the participants to crunch the time it takes for this to spread. So these agencies are running their checklist at full bore and they got ahead of themselves, because the real world time line does not match the exercise time lines that they have rehearsed over and over again.

[life_long_dem]

19. At least someone acknowledges the anthrax attacks in 2001.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_anthrax_attacks

Republics like to ignore the facts. I guess domestic terrorism isn't a problem for them.

Pardon me for veering off into a different direction from the OP.