When do you think this recession will end?

[kentuck]

Many folks, including Warren Buffet, think it will end soon. I am not so sure? I can see unemployment going into double digits and it might take a year or two to put these people back to work? I simply do not see the jobs on the horizon that will pull us out of this muck.

My guess, and we are all guessing, is that this downturn will last past the next election in 2010. The economy will likely be the major issue in the next election?

Although the worst of the bank crisis may have already passed and our economy may have been saved from collapse, some banks are far from secure. They will come back again and again to ask for more money from the taxpayers. This will continue until someone does something radical about it - such as taking them over and selling them out piece by piece.

So, my guess is that this recession will last into 2011, perhaps longer? This President was left with an unprecedented mess. It will not be easy nor quick.

[ananda]

1. Never as long as banks own the government.

nt

[MercutioATC]

2. We're never going back to the excesses of the past 20 years.

The economy of the past 20 years was based on consumption in excess of earnings. That's an unsustainable model.

As far as "recession"? My educated guess is until at least 2013...and then a very slow climb into the black, if that.

[napi21]

3. When Buffet talks about the recession ending, he's not talking

about unemployment. He's talking about the bans, the market, and business losses, and MAYBE unemployment stops rising but levels off. It will take at least 2 years after THOSE things happen for unemployment to drop down to 4-5%. Yes we're all guessing and that's my guess.

[peace13]

4. Never going back.

Eating up our personal reserves until bang..was that rock bottom I hear?

[CoffeeCat]

5. I wish someone would tell me!!!!

Frankly, I'm glad someone started a thread, asking this question--because I'm sick and tired of
everything being fuzzy and uncertain.

I only have an undergraduate degree and a minor in economics--so maybe I lack the intellectual background to
make sense of the economy. I used to be able to read several newspapers a day, and come away with a basic
understanding of what was happening around me.

Now. I don't know which end is up.

I don't know if the economy is imploding or improving. I'm not sure if the recession is lifting or if we're sinking
deeper into an eventual Depression. I have no idea if our banking and financial system is totally insolvent or if things
are improving? I'm being told by the financial media, that the stock market bottom was in early March. However, it's
entirely clear that our consumer-driven economy is a failed model that relied on excess, irresponsibility; and people
extending their incomes with reckless credit-card spending and home-equity squandering. Those days are gone.

So WTF? I mean, seriously. WTF!

I don't know whether or shit or go sailing.

[kentuck]

8. This link may help?

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/04/opinion/04krugman.html?ref=opinion

[The2ndWheel]

6. We're always running from it

It's not really something that ends. It doesn't even begin. It just is. It's physical reality catching up to what we do.

The most we can do is run just a little faster than what is chasing us. We just can't stop running, ever. We have to build, we have to buy, we have to consume physical reality so that it can't catch us.

[Johonny]

7. Depends on the sector

The last recession ended on paper, but for many Americans it never ended. Their middle class jobs never returned.

[Blue_Tires]

9. when i can get a decent-paying job...

[mnhtnbb]

10. The stock market usually anticipates (by about 6 months) recovery.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a big move in the market within the next 4-6 weeks.

Employment lags recovery, so I think we're in for tough jobs market for at least another year.

[NeedleCast]

16. Agree

I think that's a pretty accurate assessment.

[OhioChick]

11. This (recession/depression) will continue until people have jobs.

I don't see that happening anytime soon. The next election will be all about jobs.

[DemReadingDU]

14. Exactly. We can't have a 'recovery' with GM and Chrysler shutting down

How many more people are going to be unemployed dying these auto shutdown? Hundreds of thousands? And that is going to affect not only auto suppliers, but also other types of businesses. This recession is just the beginning of a depression.

And what is a 'recovery'?

Is recovery back to normal?

Carolyn Baker asks: What is 'Back to Normal'?

Is "Normal" hordes of Walmart shoppers stuffing cars and SUV's full of plastics from China?

Is "Normal" homeowners wearing several tons of house debt on their backs as they travel by car to jobs to maintain mortgage, taxes, insurance, and upkeep?

Is "Normal" parents working 80 hours a week?

Is "Normal" slamming down more McDonalds Happy Meals chased with Red Bull and Prozac?

If all these are "Normal", is that recovery?

4/18/09 ECONOMIC RECOVERY? NO THANK YOU, By Carolyn Baker
http://carolynbaker.net/site/content/view/1066/1 /

[4_TN_TITANS]

12. According to the AP articles in the local paper

Everything's headed up again already! The articles lately have been so rosey they can only be called propaganda.

[hunter]

13. 2409. In October.

At long last there will be a surplus in the grain harvest and everyone will have enough to eat.

No more world wide famine! Hooray!

[rug]

15. When everyone has a job. That's the only index that matters.

[scheming daemons]

17. Then we've never had a time period where we WEREN'T in a recession

Because we've never had 0% unemployment.

not even during WWII.



Based on the TECHNICAL definition of recession, I'd say we have positive GDP growth in the 4th quarter of this year.

[rug]

20. You're correct. The system runs on built-in recession.

Therefore, the answer to the OP is never unless the system changes.

[earth mom]

18. We're in a class war. The depression is not gonna end until the middle class have good paying jobs.

Which isn't going to happen anytime soon, if ever.

The people need to get out the pitchforks and demand it, just like they did a hundred or so years ago.

Until that happens, forgetaboutit. :grr:

[Hubert Flottz]

19. When the 2% own everything and everybody!

When there is nothing left to steal from the people who have worked for a living.