Ray Kurzweil: A singular view of the future

[Soylent Brice]

06 May 2009 by Liz Else

For inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil, being human with limited intelligence and doomed biology was never good enough. So he came up with an idea called the Singularity - a time when humans merge with machines, become smart and live forever. From MIT to the White House, people either hate the idea or can't wait for it to happen. So, asks Liz Else, will any of us live long enough to see it?

When will the Singularity arrive?

By 2045, give or take. We are already a hybrid of biological and non-biological technology. A handful of people have electronic devices in their brain, for example. The latest generation allows medical software to be downloaded to a computer inside your brain. But if you consider that 25 years from now these technologies will be 100,000 times smaller and a billion times more powerful, you get some idea of what will be feasible. And even though most of us don't have computers in our bodies, they are already part of who we are.

What about people who don't want to be "trans-human" and merge with technology?

How many people completely reject all medical and health technology, don't wear glasses or take any medicine? People say they don't want to change themselves, but then when they get a disease they will do whatever they can to overcome it. We're not going to get from here to the world of 2030 or 2040 in one grand leap; we're going to get there through thousands of little steps. Put these steps together and ultimately the world is a different place.

Can we outrun our current environmental problems to reach 2045?

Yes. The resources are much greater than they appear. We only have to capture 1 part in 10,000 of the sunlight to get all the energy we need. Nanotechnology is being applied to solar energy collection technology and that is scaling up at an exponential rate. Such new technologies are ultimately very inexpensive because they are subject to the law of accelerating returns.

more: http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20227076.200-ray-kurzweil-a-singular-view-of-the-future.html

[lunatica]

1. I'll only be 93 years old then, but I expect it will come sooner than 2045

I actually think some major breakthroughs with stem cell, and DNA regeneration cures. I believe they'll stop the ageing process which some are saying is actually an illness as cells start to break down when they regenerate. If they could stop that who needs computers?

Unfortunately these innovations will be available to the wealthy who aren't necessarily the true productive people on the planet while the poor will go without.

[ixion]

2. As long as M$ isn't writing the software, I'm all for it

otherwise, I expect we'd see something like:

"This person has performed an illegal operation, and will be shut down. If you feel you've received this message in error, please contact the Architect."

[Fumesucker]

3. A trick question...

How small can a computer be made that has all the capabilities of the human brain?

[Duer 157099]

5. Why is that a trick question?

I imagine it can be quite small. The human brain size is constrained by the size of cells.

[Fumesucker]

10. Because most people think that the human brain is some unique "device"

The functions of which cannot be duplicated by any other device which is distinctly not human.

The correct answer is: At least as small as the human brain.

[Soylent Brice]

6. "the brain is like a 168,0000 MHz Pentium computer"

http://library.thinkquest.org/C001501/the_saga/compare.htm

[Duer 157099]

4. I wonder if this relates to McKenna's Timewave zero theory?

Although he's got that singularity event coming in 2012.

:shrug:

[Soylent Brice]

7. i've mentioned this book before, but i highly recommend readin Accelerando.

it's a fiction book based on the same thing, which is actually based on existing technologies and where they could lead to.

a singularity is inevitable, regardless of date.

[PetrusMonsFormicarum]

8. Our best way to reach the stars.

Upload consciousness into machine, put machine to sleep for long journey, awaken at destination.

I guess it remains to be seen if a person's complete life, uploaded, would still amount to that person.

[Soylent Brice]

9. i see no reason why it would be anything less than exactly the same person.

memories are all just electrons shooting back and forth between synapses anyways. the trick is to just copy and replicate.

[Fumesucker]

11. I forgot to mention ...

I'm not sure that Kurzweil was the first to come up with the idea of a "singularity" in the sense that is being discussed here.

http://mindstalk.net/vinge/vinge-sing.html

Vernor Vinge
Department of Mathematical Sciences
San Diego State University

(c) 1993 by Vernor Vinge
(This article may be reproduced for noncommercial purposes if it is copied in its entirety, including this notice.)

The original version of this article was presented at the VISION-21 Symposium sponsored by NASA Lewis Research Center and the Ohio Aerospace Institute, March 30-31, 1993. A slightly changed version appeared in the Winter 1993 issue of Whole Earth Review.

Abstract

Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.

Is such progress avoidable? If not to be avoided, can events be guided so that we may survive? These questions are investigated. Some possible answers (and some further dangers) are presented.

What is The Singularity?

The acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater than human intelligence. There are several means by which science may achieve this breakthrough (and this is another reason for having confidence that the event will occur):

* There may be developed computers that are "awake" and superhumanly intelligent. (To date, there has been much controversy as to whether we can create human equivalence in a machine. But if the answer is "yes, we can", then there is little doubt that beings more intelligent can be constructed shortly thereafter.)
* Large computer networks (and their associated users) may "wake up" as a superhumanly intelligent entity.
* Computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent.
* Biological science may provide means to improve natural human intellect.

The first three possibilities depend in large part on improvements in computer hardware. Progress in computer hardware has followed an amazingly steady curve in the last few decades <17>. Based largely on this trend, I believe that the creation of greater than human intelligence will occur during the next thirty years. (Charles Platt <20> has pointed out that AI enthusiasts have been making claims like this for the last thirty years. Just so I'm not guilty of a relative-time ambiguity, let me more specific: I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030.)

What are the consequences of this event? When greater-than-human intelligence drives progress, that progress will be much more rapid. In fact, there seems no reason why progress itself would not involve the creation of still more intelligent entities -- on a still-shorter time scale. The best analogy that I see is with the evolutionary past: Animals can adapt to problems and make inventions, but often no faster than natural selection can do its work -- the world acts as its own simulator in the case of natural selection. We humans have the ability to internalize the world and conduct "what if's" in our heads; we can solve many problems thousands of times faster than natural selection. Now, by creating the means to execute those simulations at much higher speeds, we are entering a regime as radically different from our human past as we humans are from the lower animals.

[Soylent Brice]

13. excellent information!!

thank you!!!

the thought of a singularity such as this occuring in my lifetime is what keeps me going. knowing that i may possibly get to experience it would be a dream come true.

[Juche]

14. Do you read Kurzweil?

I'm guessing so but if you haven't seen them yet I'd recommend his article 'the law of accelerating returns' and the book 'the singularity is near'

http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1

http://www.amazon.com/Singularity-Near-Humans-Transcend-Biology/dp/0670033847


The spike is another good book

http://www.amazon.com/Spike-Transformed-Rapidly-Advancing-Technologies/dp/031287782X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1241648834&sr=1-1

I 'think' (not sure) that the original creator of the singularity was a NASA researcher from the 50s or 60s who saw exponential trends in technology growth.

[Fumesucker]

16. That would be Vernor Vinge

Both a scientist and an SF writer.

He worked approximately a "usenet newsgroups" level of internet into a very entertaining novel too..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Fire_Upon_the_Deep

[Juche]

17. I think it was someone else

I read the first singularian was a NASA scientist who was tasked with learning about exponential trends and saw that within 100 years (this was a few decades ago) they would be too rapid to follow.

[Fumesucker]

18. The people who have been the closest to the bleeding edge of technological forecasting

Are SF authors, not scientists (although there are quite a few who do both, I can think of several right offhand)..

For instance, Arthur C Clarke (both author and scientist) invented the communications satellite but didn't bother to patent the idea since he thought it would never come to pass in his lifetime.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vernor_Vinge

Vinge came to prominence in 1981 with his novella True Names, which is one of the earliest stories to present a fully fleshed-out concept of cyberspace, which would later be central to cyberpunk stories by William Gibson, Neal Stephenson and others.

<...>

The concepts of artificial intelligence and technological singularity inform much of Vinge's writing, whether his stories embrace them (Bookworm, Run!; True Names; Rainbows End) or construct worlds to specifically explain the non-existence of these phenomena (A Fire Upon the Deep, A Deepness in the Sky).

[Soylent Brice]

19. this was the first piece i had read about him.

you all have given me much to read.

[Fumesucker]

15. Vinge has an SF book out based on the concept of a Singularity..

"Marooned In Realtime"..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marooned_in_Realtime



Edited for speling..

[Juche]

12. The singularity occurs when intelligence and creativity are not limited to biology

Right now people's 'g' (general intelligence) occurs in a narrow range, with exceptional people having a 'g' of about 50-100% higher than average. Terence Tao, the world renowned mathematician probably has a 'g' related to math about 200% or so higher than an average person. So he is an award winning mathematician while most of us cannot perform calculus. The brightest, most creative people on earth are likely only 2-3x brighter and more creative than average, with the majority being about 20-50% or so better at it.

But when we reverse engineer the brain and have good enough information technology then our capacity for science, creativity and comprehension are not limited by biology anymore. So you have human/machines or pure machines that are 1000% better at creativity, discovery, interpretation and pattern recognition with regards to medicine or science than an average human, one of the things they will discover is how to become 20000% better than average humans. Then they will discover how to be a million times better. And on and on it'll go.

Basically once our ability to discover and interpret science is no longer limited by biology, everything changes. If the smartest, most creative scientists have a 'g' roughly double an average person, things will be unbelievable when we have altered human/machine hybrids or pure machines that have a 'g' roughly 100x higher.
And it'll probably happen within 50 years. It will be like going from walking to flying in a jet.

Even right now we are making progress. Using genetic algorithms (using natural selection to invent devices) scientists are creating inventions they couldn't make on their own. Data mining is being used to find patterns we couldn't notice on our own. So this isn't even the future, we already are entering it.

Just to clarify, by 'g' I mean a person's ability to learn, comprehend, recognize patterns and discover new info, not strictly their ability to do well on IQ tests. And right now it is limited by biology.