http://www.philly.com/inquirer/opinion/20090503_The_American_Debate__This_party_s_over__Specter_s_departure_is_one_more_sign_of_the_GOP_s_slide_into_immoderation_and_irrelevance_.html<snip>
Let us briefly sift the ashes. The party right now has no coherent message, aside from "Do Not Offend Rush Limbaugh." Its messengers are basically conservatives who speak to the choir. It has virtually zilch appeal beyond its base, as evidenced by the '08 election and every subsequent poll; the party is alienating suburbanites, independents, Latinos (the fastest-growing cohort in the electorate), and people under age 30 (the voters who will dominate for the next half century).
A respected nonpartisan group, the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, summed it up perfectly in a winter report: "The GOP is out of contention in New England and the West. It is getting out of contention in the Mid-Atlantic states and the industrial Midwest. Its bases of former support in the farm Midwest, mountain states, and the South are eroding.
"The only places where the GOP enjoys a durable advantage are Idaho, Utah, Kansas, Nebraska, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, Oklahoma, and Texas. And with the growth of the Latino population, Texas will likely be at least a toss-up state within the next decade." (Actually, pollsters report that 48 percent of Texas Republicans are so angry with President Obama that they want their state to secede from the union. Isn't that unpatriotic? Whatever happened to "My country, right or wrong"?)
Anyway, the GOP's "durable advantage" has been reduced to 10 red states. Two new national polls report that only 20 percent of Americans identify themselves as Republicans, the lowest figure in decades. The holdouts - nationally, and, as Specter discovered, in Pennsylvania - tend to be those who will tolerate no detours from conservative orthodoxy, nor tolerate kind words for Obama.
Specter has left behind a narrowcasted party that would rather marinate in its anger and paranoia than win elections in states outside the heartland and the Old Confederacy. How else to explain the burgeoning popularity of Glenn Beck, the Fox News host, who has been warning of a fascist plot hatched by Democrats? (I'm not kidding. Beck says there's a fascist symbol on the back of the dime in your pocket - a bundle of rods with an axe - and points out that a Democratic president, Woodrow Wilson, approved that artwork in 1916.)
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Specter is between a rock and a hard place and I'm lovin' it.