Will Proposition 8 be declared unconstitutional?

[t0dd]

Poll question: Will Proposition 8 be declared unconstitutional?

Tomorrow at 10am (PST) the California Supreme Court will decide the legality of Proposition 8. The ruling will also determine the fate of the 18,000 same-sex couples who were married last summer before CA voters outlawed the practice through Prop 8 during the November election. We all know what we WANT to happen, but let's just see what you predict WILL happen. How will the CA supreme court rule?

[sakabatou]

1. One can only hope that it's repealed.

[Sebastian Doyle]

2. I'm not going to make any predictions

California politics is weird, considering you have a so-called "liberal" state that would elect two conservative actors as governor, and allow the likes of Jane Harman and Diane Feinstein to call themselves "Democrats". And on occasion, even a true psychotic like Bob Dornan is allowed into the system (though nobody would ever mistake Orange County for "liberal" regardless of the overall mythology about the state.)

All that aside though, the state court ruled only a year ago that it was unconstitutional to ban same sex marriage. So it would be inconsistent, if not hypocritical, for them to reverse that position now by letting Prop H8 stand.

[QueenOfCalifornia]

11. I agree.

100%

It's fucking crazy here.

[CatholicEdHead]

3. I hope it is repealed, but only time will tell

If not, it can be overturned at the ballot box in 2010 with another Proposition.

CA Props: :crazy:

[konnichi wa]

4. I can't bring myself to vote on this...for fear of jinxing it.

:scared: :shrug:

[blue_onyx]

5. I predict prop. 8 will be upheld

[pup_ajax]

6. fingers crossed ...

I'm gonna keep my hopes up until it is announced.
Then I'll raise holy **** if it goes the wrong way.

[Divine Discontent]

7. I'll actually put my name with my vote - it will be overturned causing a huge uproar, but that's

what is needed to happen to force rights for all people, just like rights for blacks in the 60's was forced in getting rid of segregation, the gays are in the same type of boat right now, and deserve equal rights to marriage as any other married couple. Churches do NOT have to marry them if they don't want to, that's their religious choice, but there will be PLENTY of churches that will.

Praying and hoping for the change!

[rurallib]

8. Can a state SC actually overturn a constitutional ammendment?

Isn't the question they are ruling on is whether the vote was done in a legal manner.
If the SC can overturn an ammendment, doesn't that give them almost total power?

[Number_Six]

9. That's a sticky wicket....

It all depends on how a state's constitution defines as to how an amendment is worked together. They may, as has been suggested, toss it for not following the guidelines in the state constitution.

But, I ain't holding my breath, either....

[Divine Discontent]

10. they could rule that the ammendment has no right being in a public vote

if I understand correctly. then based on the reasoning they would state for making it null, the opposition group could then try to take it to the SCOTUS. I believe voting on whether other people can have the same right you may enjoy is unconstitutional, and therefore, that is their easy out if they would be so brave. I'm willing to hear the proper legal terms for what I said and if I'm mostly right if anyone more knowledgeable is reading. haha

[Q3JR4]

12. It depends on whether one is

amending or revising the constitution. It is my understanding that the constitution allows the electorate to amend as much as they want, but that revisions have to go through the legislature. The whole thing turns on whether the electorate can change the fundamental rights accorded all citizens of the state with an amendment or whether such sweeping changes constitute a revision.

It is also my understanding that, in the past, the California Supreme Court has allowed the electorate to do whatever it wanted under the banner of an "amendment." With past court rulings, and the way it seemed oral arguments went, I'm expecting the court to rule in favor of prop. 8. I suppose the possibility exists that the court could rule that every marriage in California must now be called a civil union and let prop. 8 stand, thereby striking a balance that still treats everyone in the state equally.

Personally I think the court shot its wad when they issued the marriage equality ruling, and I'm pretty sure that they will uphold prop. 8. Then again I happen to be one of those pessimistic bastards that the news media is always raving about.

Q3JR4.
Mumbles incoherently about bigots while simultaneously writing a check to help fund the new proposed ballot initiative to overturn prop. 8 in the next California election.

[pinto]

15. Well said in your first paragraph -

"It depends on whether one is amending or revising the constitution. It is my understanding that the constitution allows the electorate to amend as much as they want, but that revisions have to go through the legislature. The whole thing turns on whether the electorate can change the fundamental rights accorded all citizens of the state with an amendment or whether such sweeping changes constitute a revision."

I think that says it. (aside) I think the possibility of some sort of "civil union" compromise is totally out of the picture. The Court is stuck with the task of ruling on the constitutionality of the Proposition, itself. (routine disclaimer) I'm no Constitutional scholar.

[Q3JR4]

16. I'm not a constitutional scholar either.

I'm also sure that you're right; the only thing the ruling will do is decide the legality of prop. 8.

Q3JR4
Prepared to be disappointed.

[pinto]

They are ruling on 3 legal questions -

The court issued an order to show cause in Strauss, Tyler, and City and County of San Francisco directing the parties to brief and argue the following issues:

(1) Is Proposition 8 invalid because it constitutes a revision of, rather than an amendment to, the California Constitution? (See Cal. Const., art. XVIII, §§ 1–4.)

(2) Does Proposition 8 violate the separation of powers doctrine under the California Constitution?

(3) If Proposition 8 is not unconstitutional, what is its effect, if any, on the marriages of same-sex couples performed before the adoption of Proposition 8?

http://www.courtinfo.ca.gov/courts/supreme/SF052609.PDF

*****************************************

Apparently, as this layman reads it, we can amend our Constitution via initiative (i.e. Prop 8) but we *can't* revise it via initiative. The argument before the Court was that Prop. 8 constituted a revision, and was unconstitutional. ~ pinto


CALIFORNIA CONSTITUTION
ARTICLE 18 AMENDING AND REVISING THE CONSTITUTION


SEC. 1. The Legislature by rollcall vote entered in the journal,
two-thirds of the membership of each house concurring, may propose an
amendment or revision of the Constitution and in the same manner may
amend or withdraw its proposal. Each amendment shall be so prepared
and submitted that it can be voted on separately.



CALIFORNIA CONSTITUTION
ARTICLE 18 AMENDING AND REVISING THE CONSTITUTION


SEC. 2. The Legislature by rollcall vote entered in the journal,
two-thirds of the membership of each house concurring, may submit at
a general election the question whether to call a convention to
revise the Constitution. If the majority vote yes on that question,
within 6 months the Legislature shall provide for the convention.
Delegates to a constitutional convention shall be voters elected from
districts as nearly equal in population as may be practicable.



CALIFORNIA CONSTITUTION
ARTICLE 18 AMENDING AND REVISING THE CONSTITUTION


SEC. 3. The electors may amend the Constitution by initiative.



CALIFORNIA CONSTITUTION
ARTICLE 18 AMENDING AND REVISING THE CONSTITUTION


SEC. 4. A proposed amendment or revision shall be submitted to the
electors and if approved by a majority of votes thereon takes effect
the day after the election unless the measure provides otherwise. If
provisions of 2 or more measures approved at the same election
conflict, those of the measure receiving the highest affirmative vote
shall prevail.

http://www.leginfo.ca.gov/.const/.article_18

[depakid]

19. Bizarre when one thinks that the state can amend a constitution by majority vote

but cannot pass a budget year to year without a 2/3's majority in both houses.

[dsc]

13. I would love to be wrong

but I can't see any way that Prop 8 won't be upheld. I think there is a very small chance the court would end all marriages which would be a legally consistant way for them to uphold their ruling on marriage equality and follow what the citizens did.

[RufusTFirefly]

14. Based on the oral arguments, things didn't look good.... n/t

[Tim01]

17. There's always Iowa. Bizarro world. nt

[Starry Messenger]

18. I'm not feeling optimistic.

My state did a stupid thing. :( Eventually we will fix this thing, but I have a feeling we are going to have to fix the prop system that led to this travesty to begin with. I'm administering a final at school RIGHT as the decision comes down. My thoughts will be with everyone here who is affected.

[t0dd]

20. Even if Prop 8 isn't overturned

We can turn it over at the ballot box next year. New York and New Jersey will legalize same-sex marriage soon. Once that happens, in addition to more younger voters and more older voters dying, the momentum will be unstoppable.

[Starry Messenger]

22. I hope so too t0dd.

I signed the petition for the new propositions. Hopefully our state will prevail next time.

[depakid]

21. Neither of options 1, 2 or 3 would surprise me