Asia Times: Recession 'shape' points down

[marmar]

Recession 'shape' points down
By W Joseph Stroupe


We've heard a lot of talk about the shape of this "recession", especially for the United States. The optimists think it will be V-shaped and that we are even now seeing the bounce upward toward growth again. Those somewhat more in tune with the deeply worrying fundamentals think it will be U-shaped, and they think we've probably hit the bottom, or nearly so, but we have some months to go before growth begins again. Then there are the pessimists, who insist on being called realists, who think it will be L-shaped, with America's economy stagnating perhaps for an entire decade, or even more after it reaches the bottom of this recession.

Finally, there are those relative handful of so-called "prophets of gloom and doom", who continue to advise that this isn't merely a severe recession, but is rather the opening phase of a full-blown crisis, a financial/economic collapse centered in the US in which the severe recession is merely one of many repercussions to come.

They predict the crisis will be shaped like a series of steps going downward - in effect, a series of collapses with deceptive plateaus in between, with economic growth returning very slowly and painfully in the US and the UK several years off from today. They insist that we haven't even remotely seen the bottom yet, but have only experienced the first few steps downward so far, and that there are several more to come. They also warn that the worst for the US and the UK, by far, is yet to come.

Obviously, those in this last category of prognosticators aren't very popular, in spite of the fact that, by and large, they were primarily the ones who called this present dire crisis correctly, some of them doing so years in advance. Yours truly is proud to be in this last category.

At present, the optimists generally have the floor, as the media report multiple developments that are said to signal a turnaround, and the Wall Street rally that began on March 9, after US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's US$1 trillion toxic asset removal plan was announced, continues. In the crucial housing sector, pending sales of previously owned homes jumped 3.2% after a 2% jump the previous month, for the first back-to-back jump in more than a year. ............(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/KE22Dj02.html

[ixion]

1. kicked and recommended

The article gives a very good overview of where we're at. I know there are many out there proclaiming the worst to be over, but in all reality, we're haven't even reached the bottom yet.

[nichomachus]

3. Reached the bottom?

We're still in the beginning stages of the downturn. You can't even see the bottom from here.

[ixion]

5. I agree

that's why I kicked it. :)

[Wednesdays]

2. K&R

:kick:

[slipslidingaway]

4. knr nt