Any chance of Prop 8 being overturned in the SCOTUS?

[backscatter712]

The way I figure, we can cite Romer v. Evans, the case that overturned Colorado's Amendment 2 (back when Colorado was the Hate State) and gave some case-law teeth to the idea that the GLBT community is entitled to equal protection of the law.

Or will Scalia & co. pull the same shit the California Supremes did? I guess we'll have to wait until Scalia or Thomas kicks the bucket. Somebody get them some more pork chops and Baconnaise!

[aquart]

1. I'd rather not try it without a few new justices.

How's Scalia's health?

[backscatter712]

2. Like I said, he needs more pork chops and Baconnaise!

Or maybe he could go on another hunt or six with Dick Cheney...

[kenny blankenship]

3. Not if we don't appoint LIBERALS

[Eric J in MN]

4. California will probably pass another amendment canceling Prop 8, before..

...the US Supreme Court rules that gay marriage is a right in the US Constitution.

[cali]

5. probably not.

[WeDidIt]

6. Kennedy, Scalia, Alito, Thomas, Roberts

The chances are really slim to none. You'd have to get Kennedy.

[pup_ajax]

7. not now

not while it's stacked with right-wing activists! :(

[anigbrowl]

8. I don't know, but I agree with others that a ballot iniaitive is the way to go. .nt

[SoCalNative]

9. Not really

No review by USSC. Decision rested on interpretation of California constitutional provision re: amendment. Federal courts cannot weigh in on California constitutional matters unless it is more limiting, not less, than federal constitutional claims.

[zipplewrath]

11. Only on US Constitutional issues

What you're saying, correctly, is that they would have to overturn the decision based upon federal constitutional grounds. Article IV is problematic for the prop 8 decision. Of course, they could "fix" it by undoing "all" the marriages from the states, but I'm not sure they'd go that far. This decision has several "equal protection" problems, along with "full faith and credit" issues. I suspect the USSC would be favorable in some sense to the challenge. The question is what the ultimate remedy that challenging it would produce.

[IntravenousDemilo]

10. Make sure you leave the Baconnaise jar open and out in the sun for a few hours first. n/m

[harun]

12. I doubt they would hear the case.

[Statistical]

13. Ninth circuit is the next step.

Since the ruling left existing marriages intact but ruled in favor of Prop8 you have a situation where certain members of a group (same-sex partners wishing to be married) have unequal protection.

The ninth circuit will hear it. Either way it will be appeal from ninth circuit to SCOTUS.
Based on the decision of the ninth and how well it is articulated SCOTUS may refuse to hear it and let the ruling of the ninth stand.

I think it could go either way in the ninth.

The biggest hurdle is to prove that marriage is a right and that the plaintiffs are injured by a lack of marriage.
If CA allowed civil unions with all protections and rights of marriage (tax benefits, wills, estates, insurance, etc) it would be difficult to prove that the plaintiffs were injured by not being "married".

Even if CA doesn't have "equal civil unions" the state could argue that such unions would preclude an unequal protection situation and then present a proposition to the people: a) allow full benefit civil unions or b)dissolve prop8.

Lots of ducks to line up and lot of options for the state. Still I doubt the ninth will outright refuse to hear the case.