"The Worst Is Yet to Come": If You're Not Petrified, You're Not Paying Attention

[keep_it_real]

"This country is going into a 10-year decline. Living standards will never be the same."

"We're in a complete mess and the consumer is smart enough to know it," says Davidowitz, whose firm does consulting for the retail industry. "If the consumer isn't petrified, he or she is a damn fool."

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/248398/%22The-Worst-Is-Yet-to-Come%22-If-You%27re-Not-Petrified-You%27re-Not-Paying-Attention?tickers=^DJI,^GSPC,DDR,XLF,GM,RWR

[Mari333]

1. "The bailout money is in the sewer and gone"

That I agree with.
well, the good jobs are all outsourced, the jobs left are minimum wage, credit cards as a 'wage' increase is defaulting, 2 insane expensive occupations are sucking the treasury dry, of course its going into a decline. I am surprised there arent riots in the streets. maybe we havent reached that point yet.

[AllentownJake]

2. SHHHHHH

We have a 711 billion dollar trade deficit

Our banks and financial industry that is nothing more than giant Ponzi Schemes.

Our manufacturing base has been shipped overseas

We are fighting two un-winnable guerrilla wars in hostile regions of the world

Are entire economy is fueled by a commodity that is largely produced by other nations.

We have no public transportation infrastructure to speak of

We have increased the wealth disparity between rich and poor the past 8 years

We have an unemployment rate that is reaching 10% and we have an under employment rate that is much higher than that but we don't want to report.

California is going to declare bankruptcy.

We have an aging population that is going to expect social security and medicare in the next 20 years since they paid for it their entire life with less workers to pay for theirs for the above reasons and there are less workers in their productive ages when they retire.


BUT SHHHHHHHHHHHH

Everything is fine. Obama is in charge and everything is going to be ok

[lonestarnot]

4. We have been sorely fucked, but don't blame Obama or his inchargeness!

Unless of course you're looking for a fight and yes we continue to be fucked w/no end in sight.

[AllentownJake]

5. There are some on here

Who would deny how fucked we are because they think admitting we are fucked somehow reflects on Obama.

If these people were more accepting of how fucked we are, Obama would have more range to maneuver reforms like FDR did.

[MercutioATC]

3. Well, he makes sense.

I'm not thrilled with his statements on unions, but he's right in a purist sense. The government is making bad investments to try to save jobs and it's not going to work.

See my avatar? I've been saying this for a long time.

[AllentownJake]

8. The Auto-Industry would be a better investment than the banks

That is my only disagreement.

If we invested the bailout money into reviving American Industry for the 21st Century like FDR did in the 1930s we would have pay-offs for years.

Handing the money to the banksters was a giant mistake. Their record of responsibly allocating capital is pretty obvious right now.

[MercutioATC]

10. Agreed...and "handing out money" was the first (and greatest) mistake.

Whether it's AIG or BoA or GM...you simply cannot give money without conditions and expect a positive result.

[AllentownJake]

11. Even with conditions

Honestly our best bet would have been to let the system explode and than to rebuild it and jail the perpetrators

Now we have the same perpetrators still in power, kept afloat by taxpayer money, and not lending money. They are planning their next Ponzi scheme right now.

[MercutioATC]

13. Oh, I agree...but they would never let that happen.

In the absence of a real reconstruction, lending with conditions would have at least been a positive step.

[AllentownJake]

15. Should have just let them fail

and let the rats try to flee the country on their corporate jets.

I believe their would have been a real constructive use for our Airforce for humanity in that case.

[MercutioATC]

36. Their attempt to engineer a "soft landing" is making things worse.

A collapse would be bad, but it would allow us to start rebuilding. They're trying to build a different house on a shaky foundation.

[lonestarnot]

12. Oh sure, investing in poor people bad! Theft by the rich good.

WTF is with you?

[AllentownJake]

14. Depends on what you mean by bailout

If we take over Detroit force it to manufacture vehicles for the 21st Century and re-organize it so it is a responsible corporate citizen where the CEO doesn't make 1000X the average worker good.

If we hand the current business model money, and expect the current leadership (this does not end with the CEO but the entire E-Suite and the level below them) to act differently than we are seriously deluding ourselves.

[cherokeeprogressive]

24. You can force whatever vehicles you want on the public. What you can't do is force them to buy. n/t

[AllentownJake]

26. No one has any money to buy right now

Well a few people do, however you are more likely to get your old car repaired that's paid off or buy a used one than to take on new debt, if you are even allowed to take on new debt, when you are worried whether or not you'll be employed in 6 months.

[cherokeeprogressive]

27. That's the sad fact in all of this mess. No one is going to be buying.

American style capitalism is taking a few decades off, at best. It's been running hard, is tired; new shoes and a shiny new nylon running suit aren't going to change that.

[AllentownJake]

29. We had this guy in the 30s

Who saved us from ourselves. Set up a good system. Well the wealthy amongst us have been pissed about it since, because it capped their greed and their power (not realizing he was the guy who saved them from a French/Russian revolution).

It took them 60 years but they were finally able to destroy what he did. Surprisingly using the man's own political party to assist them in pulling it off in some cases.

Eventually, history repeated itself.

We'll see if the guy we elected in November can pull the same thing off again.

[JVS]

32. Does history repeat or are we merely 80 years overdue for what FDR staved off?

[AllentownJake]

33. All depends on one guy

He has the public speaking skills and popularity to pull it off.

however, quite frankly right now I think he's doing a heck of a lot of can kicking.

[krispos42]

42. That is true. This is why any changes we make have to be industry-wide.

If it was up to me, I'd add a statute that all-electric passenger vehicles automatically count as a 100mpg vehicle in the company's CAFE rating. The automakers would practially give them away in exchange for being able to sell a couple of high-profit SUVs or pickups.


Combine this with a reasonably hefty annual increase in CAFE standards, and all-electric cars would soon account for a sizable percentage of the new car fleet.

[krispos42]

41. We should have bought GM and Chrysler and broken them up into smaller companies

Given the workers shares of stock based on seniority. And then combine that with normal import tariffs.

The Chevrolet Motor Company. The Buick Corporation. Pontiac Automotive, Inc. The Saturn Company. American Cadillac. GMC Truck, LLC. The Chysler Corporation. Dodge of America, Inc. Original Jeep, LLC.

They should all be different, and competing.


The big reasons the Big Three aren't as competative is because they've been consolidated into uncompetitive companies, and that we lack protective tariffs that the Big Three's competition enjoys.



Japan has at least 8 major car makers in fierce competition with either other: Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Subaru, Mitsubishi, Mazda, Isuzu, and Suzuki. We have only 3 in a much larger market. Is it any wonder the Big Three got complacent and the Japanese got innovative?



Ravi Batra is 100% correct: you want competition, you need a bunch of domestic companies fighting in a competative environment protected by tariff walls.

[MercutioATC]

16. It's more complex than that.

Artificially propping up a company that failed because of a myriad of reasons...mostly their own doing...doesn't make financial sense, whether it be management or the unions that's the beneficiary of that aid.

What's happening is that we're dumping money down a hole to temporarily preserve jobs. It's not a permanent fix...hell, it's not even a medium-term fix...and it will come back to bite us in the ass.

[Deja Q]

18. Having been in one, I ain't so keen on unions anymore either.

Depends on your point of view...

[MercutioATC]

37. Working without a contract for the last 3 years, I'm glad I have one.

We're back at the table now and should have something to vote on in less than 2 weeks.

That would never have happened without organized labor.

[blindpig]

6. People keep saying, "It's got to get better."

When they stop saying that, then we begin.

[Buzz Clik]

7. Again? If I promise to be so afraid that I pee myself, will you stop?

[janx]

9. I'M SCARED!!!!!!!!!!!

:scared::scared::scared::scared::scared::scared::scared::scared::scared::scared::scared::scared::scared::scared::scared::scared::scared::scared::scared:

:scared::scared::scared::scared::scared::scared::scared:

[BlooInBloo]

44. Sweartagawwd, the WorldIsEnding-ers are so tedious.

[Deja Q]

17. Probably.

I'm just sick of this doom and gloom SHIT that's been said for year after year.

[Uben]

19. Doomsayers come out of the woodwork......

....everytime there is an economic downturn. Yeah, the economy is in the dumps right now, but every...EVERY...downturn is followed by a period of boom. It's a cycle that will continue as long as there is an economic system. People like to scare folks into thinking everything is going to collapse. It is not going to happen now, or in the near future. Usually those with the least are affected the worst because they have less to lose and those with the most.....well most of them will always have more. It's a fact of life. Belive it or not, doesn't matter. We still have to conduct our lives like the future holds promise, and that alone will help pull us out. People still need to save money and that money is going to be invested in something, and that is going to stimulate something else. It's the same in every country on every continent. Flame if you must, but you know I'm right.

[AllentownJake]

20. Except the ones that aren't

My father recovered from every illness he ever had, till he got one that killed him.


There are parts of the world who have seen economic collapses who have never recovered to where they were prior to the bust. Empires rise, empires fall.

For the past 30 years we have been going of a boom/bust economic cycle. It has taken its toll.

Our trade deficit is hovering around 700 billion dollars
Our government spending deficit is over a trillion
Our biggest industry is collapsing.
Our banks are nothing more than a Ponzi Scheme.
We don't make things in this country anymore. We export raw materials and import finished goods. That is what a third world nation does.


We have some serious problems. Denying the problems exist by just thinking things will get better with our current system is a recipe for the Death of this great nation.

[Deja Q]

22. I wish people would stop saying there's a problem and start doing. Something.

[AllentownJake]

25. This is one of those problems like the Great Depression

That cannot be solved by the unwashed masses.

We need our leaders to act like leaders. Something they seem woefully unable to do at the present moment.

I think when California collapses this year and they start to see the pitchforks and torches come out we might see some action...or we will see an old fashion Marshal law fascist crack down.

[MercutioATC]

35. The "boom" after 1929 took five years to arrive...and was short-lived.

It took nine years for real recovery to begin.

Opining that things are going to get worse before they get better isn't "Doomsayer" talk, it's a historical probability.

[phaseolus]

21. Oh, it's just Davidowitz.

He's a regular guest on WBBM-780 AM's noon business hour, and whenever I hear him he sounds like a stark raving looney.

Granted, this country has its problems, I'm no pollyanna. And I imagine any retail sector analyst would be scared shitless these days.

But this guy's never seemed particularly rational or impartial to me... or even coherent, for that matter.

[cherokeeprogressive]

23. I liken our current economy to a melting snowball, rolling downhill but getting smaller.

That the snowball is rolling downhill isn't the problem. It's the getting smaller. If it were growing, it might have enough momentum at the bottom to allow it to roll to the top of the next hill. It won't. It'll bottom out, start up the next hill, then the momentum will run out. At that point it's going to be rolling not only downhill, but BACKWARD.

More people out of work equals less tax revenue, both federal and state. Less tax revenue will equal a reduction in government services. Less government services means more people who rely on the government for their healthcare will suffer. Less people will be offered a helping hand in their search for education and jobs. That leads to less people qualified to enter the workforce. Less people qualified to re-enter the workforce after losing a job.

I believe we're going to hear about a huge drop in purchases of "durable goods" in the coming months. Wiki defines durable goods as cars, appliances, business equipment, electronic equipment, home furnishings and fixtures, houseware and accessories, photographic equipment, recreational goods, sporting goods, toys and games. Durable goods are typically characterized by long interpurchase times--the time between two successive purchases. The time between two successive purchases of durable goods is going to get quite long indeed. People are going to start pinching pennies until the pennies scream. They'll drive their cars until the car won't travel another mile. They're not going to consider buying tires until the steel belts are showing. That electric can opener, when it dies, will be replaced by a manual one. That mixer, when it dies, will be replaced by a metal whisk. That old inefficient refrigerator will keep sucking more than it's share of electrons off of the grid until the day food spoils inside of it. Blankets will be used to cover ratty old furniture. Throw rugs will be used to cover threadbare carpet. That will lead to more job losses, and less tax revenue.

That's going to equal more job losses. More job losses will equate to even less tax revenue, both federal and state. Both income and sales tax revenues will decrease.

I fully expect to see federal gas taxes raised to the point where gas is once again costing the consumer over four dollars per gallon. I think this will be an effort by the government to not only increase revenue, but also to force consumers to buy the tiny cars that will be marketed by Government Motors, since the Feds will have a >70% stake in the company, and reducing emissions becomes an ever increasing priority.

When gas taxes go up, we will ALL suffer. Every person who spends a dime on food will suddenly be spending half again as much. The cost of transporting goods to market will go so high that the marketplace will suffer because the "little people" won't be able to afford what's on sale there. This is going to equal more job losses, and less tax revenue.

If this post sounds a little disjointed, it's because I am scared of what's coming. Nay, I'm terrified. I wish I had answers.

I do have one small idea though. I'd build tracks along every US Highway, every state road, and every Interstate Highway. Does it seem strange that if you wanted to travel from Dallas to Memphis by rail, you'd have to go to Chicago first? Or that to use rail to get from Jacksonville, FL to Little Rock AR means going to DC first, then to Chicago, and finally to Little Rock? That's 2058 miles in a little over 45 hours by train, vs 863 in 13 1/2 hours in a car. Which one would YOU choose? $780 dollars to ride in a train seat for almost four days, or $149 (I used 15mpg, 863 mi., and $2.60 per gallon to calculate the cost) to drive your own vehicle?

[Lorien]

30. I've written to Obama several times about the need for a National high speed

maglev system. It will cut down on pollution and traffic congestion while putting millions of Americans back to work, plus the "track" can be placed in the median strips of existing highways.

[cherokeeprogressive]

34. I think using existing right of ways is the best way to go. There is already a web of highways

criss-crossing this country. I think that maglev might be setting the bar a tad too high though. I haven't done any research, but I'm assuming that the cost/benefit ratio would be too high with the current technology of maglev. I've been known to be wrong though!

[Lorien]

39. Lower cost from what I understand

it's been in development here in Florida for years now. It's an electric/ magnetic system that sips energy. The elevated monorail is cheaper to build because there's less environmental impact. Another bonus; it's virtually silent.

[cherokeeprogressive]

40. Proves my point.

I have been known to be wrong! Elevated monorail... So all those years ago, Walt Disney had it exactly right.

I've often wondered why no one ever considered building elevated trains over Los Angeles freeways, suspended from arches. It seems to me that a solution such as this would not take up any more room whatsoever.

Thanks for setting me straight.

[Turbineguy]

28. Maybe

but there's this: The Bush administration tried to keep the economy from collapsing by borrowing and bubbles and few seemed to notice.

Now pretty much everybody can see that a fake economy cannot function.

The trick is to fix the economy without causing it to collapse. Helping "the Banks" is not the same thing as giving bank executives personal money.

[Clear Blue Sky]

31. We spent how many trillion and the economy dropped 6% last quarter?

[cali]

38. who the fuck wants to go through life petrified?

and our way of life has long been unsustainable. What happens will happen. Prepare as best you can and deal with what comes when it comes.

[omega minimo]

43. "Living standards will never be the same" as overpriced, outsourced, conspicuous consumption crap

:thumbsup:

[Name removed]

46. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[donheld]

45. We've been like a lobster

put in a pot of water, not realizing the water is getting hotter and we're being cooked alive.