bill, if you read the 7/2/2009 letter that they mention, it does include the mandates and the public option.
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/104xx/doc10445/07-07-2009-ExpandingMedicaid.pdf"In response to your request, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has considered the likely effects on federal spending and health insurance coverage of adding a substantial expansion of eligibility for Medicaid to the Affordable Health Choices Act, a draft of which was recently released by the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP). CBO’s preliminary analysis of that draft legislation was provided to Senator Edward M. Kennedy on July 2, 2009; that analysis is available on CBO’s web site, www.cbo.gov..."
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/104xx/doc10431/07-02-HELPltr.pdfJuly 2, 2009
Honorable Edward M. Kennedy
Chairman
Committee on Health, Education,
Labor, and Pensions
United States Senate
Washington, DC 20510
Dear Mr. Chairman:
"The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the staff of the Joint
Committee on Taxation (JCT) have completed a preliminary analysis of the
provisions of title I of draft legislation called the Affordable Health Choices
Act, which has been posted on the Web site of the Senate Committee on
Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (labeled BAI09F54.xml).
Much of title I addresses health insurance coverage. Among other things,
that title would: require all legal residents to have insurance; establish
insurance exchanges (called “gateways”) through which individuals and
families could purchase coverage; set certain minimum requirements
regarding the availability, pricing, and actuarial value of policies; and
provide federal subsidies to substantially reduce the cost of coverage for
some enrollees. (Attachment 1 summarizes the major provisions of title I
dealing with health insurance coverage.) Title I also includes provisions
that, among other things, would establish a reinsurance program for early
retirees and improve access to and availability of community living
assistance services and supports.
The attached tables summarize CBO’s preliminary assessment of the
effects of title I on federal revenues and direct spending and its likely
impact on health insurance coverage. According to that assessment,
enacting those provisions would result in a net increase in federal budget
deficits of $597 billion over the 2010-2019 period—reflecting net costs of
$645 billion for the coverage provisions, which would be partially offset by
net savings of $48 billion from other provisions of title I. (CBO has also
estimated the budgetary impact of provisions in titles III and VI of an
earlier draft of the legislation, which would add another $14 billion to the
net cost of the proposal.)
Honorable Edward M. Kennedy
Page 2
Once the legislation was fully implemented, CBO and JCT staff estimate,
about 20 million fewer people would be uninsured compared with
projections under current law. About 26 million individuals would obtain
coverage through the new insurance exchanges, and about 6 million fewer
people would purchase nongroup coverage outside the exchanges. In the
aggregate, the number of people obtaining coverage through an employer
would change very little.
The draft legislation does not include a significant expansion of the
Medicaid program or other options for subsidizing coverage for those with
income below 150 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL); such
provisions may be incorporated at a later date. By CBO’s estimate, about
three-quarters of the people who would remain uninsured under this version
of the legislation would have income below 150 percent of the FPL.The figures presented in this letter do not represent a formal or complete
cost estimate for the draft legislation. This estimate reflects the major
provisions of the legislation but CBO has not yet completed an analysis of
all of its effects. Specifically, the agency has not yet estimated the
administrative costs to the federal government of implementing the
specified policies or the costs of establishing and operating the new
insurance exchanges, nor has it taken into account all of the proposal’s
likely effects on spending for other federal programs or their potential
effects on revenues from corporate taxes.
The estimated cost of this draft of the legislation is roughly $400 billion
less over 10 years than the cost CBO estimated for an earlier version of the
proposal (in CBO’s letter dated June 15, 2009).
A number of changes in the
legislation account for that difference. First, the subsidies available in the
insurance exchanges would be less extensive; there would now be no
premium subsidies for individuals and families with income above
400 percent of the federal poverty level, and subsidies for people below that
level would be smaller. Second, a penalty (labeled an “equity assessment”)
was added for employers that do not offer insurance coverage to their
workers and contribute a specified share of the premium. Third, the new
draft substantially limits the opportunity for employees with an offer of
health insurance from their employer to receive subsidies in the insurance
exchange because their employer’s offer was deemed unaffordable.
Collectively, those changes contributed to a substantially lower estimate of
Honorable Edward M. Kennedy
Page 3
the number of people who would purchase coverage through the insurance
exchanges (and a corresponding reduction in federal subsidy payments) and
led to a much smaller estimated impact on the amount of coverage provided
through employment-based plans.
The new draft also includes provisions
regarding a “public plan,” but those provisions did not have a substantial
effect on the cost or enrollment projections, largely because the public plan
would pay providers of health care at rates comparable to privately
negotiated rates—and thus was not projected to have premiums lower than
those charged by private insurance plans in the exchanges..."