"Recession Is Over; Depression Has Just Begun"

[Nikki Stone1]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/164452-recession-is-over-depression-has-just-begun?source=article_sb_popular

Recession Is Over; Depression Has Just Begun
Edward Harrison

"Back in my very first post in March of 2008, I said that the U.S. was already in a recession, the only question being how deep and how long – a question I answered in the next post saying “we are definitely in recession. And according to Gary Shilling, this recession is going to be a big one. Worse than 2001, 1990-91 or the double dip recession of 1980-82.” This has certainly turned out to be true. The issue was and still is overconsumption i.e. levels of consumption supported only by increase in debt levels and not by future earnings. This is the core of our problem – debt.

I see the debt problem as an outgrowth of pro-growth, anti-recession macroeconomic policy which developed as a reaction to the trauma of the lost decade in the U.S. and the U.K.. This was a period of low growth, high inflation and poor market returns, in which the U.K. became the sick man of Europe and labor strife brought that economy to its knees. It is a period that saw the resignation of an American President and the humiliation of the Iran Hostage Crisis.

In essence, after the inflationary outcome that many saw as an outgrowth of the Samuelson-Keynesianism of the 1960s and 1970s, the Reagan-Thatcher era of the 1990s ushered in a more ‘free-market’ orientation in macroeconomic policy. The key issue was government intervention. Policy makers following Samuelson (more so than Keynes himself) have stressed the positive effect of government intervention, pointing to the Great Depression as animus, and the New Deal, and World War II as proof. Other economists (notably Milton Friedman, and later Robert Lucas) have stressed the primacy of markets, pointing to the end of Bretton Woods, the Nixon Shock and stagflation as counterfactuals. They point to the Great Moderation and secular bull market of 1982-2000 as proof. This is a divisive and extremely political issue, in which the two sides have been labelled Freshwater and Saltwater economists (see my post “Freshwater versus saltwater circa 1988”).

However, just as the policy of the 1950s to the 1970s was not really Keynesian (read Keynes’ General Theory as Richard Posner did and you will see why), the 1980s-2000 was not really an era of true ‘free markets.’ I call it deregulation as crony capitalism. What this has meant in practice is that the well-connected, particularly in the financial services industry, have won out over the middle classes (a view I take up in “A populist interpretation of the latest boom-bust cycle”). In fact, hourly earnings peaked over 35 years ago in the United States when adjusting for inflation."

"

[tinkerbell41]

1. I agree and no one will listen.

[Nikki Stone1]

2. I fear the worst. Then again, I live in California and am watching it.

We're in for a hellish decade at least.

[truedelphi]

4. Why is it that Clinton's economic advisers had him

Offer twenty billion to bail out Mexico back in the mid-nineties, but Geithner refuses to offer California twenty billion, when our governor asks him for it?

Maybe someone should point out that one third of our populace is hispanic and that it is racist to continue to put the screws to our state?

And then there is that nasty little statistic of how for decades, Californians gave the Federal Government great gobs of money each Apr 15th, and only got back 76 cents on the dollar.

And the other nasty statistic - twenty billion dolalrs would amount to LESS than one half of one percent of the Bernanke/Geithner digital money games, now eleven trillion dollars and counting.

[zonkers]

44. Ya think? I keep looking at housing prices. They still are quite high in many parts of CA.

Sure they have come down in the hinterlands and where they have overdeveloped, I still see plenty of construction around Los Angeles. Might be a few more bike riders and bus riders than there used to be... but sadly I don't really see an increase in car poolers. This is unforgivable.

I forgot exactly when but some time into the 2nd term of Bush Jr., when gas was up there... I remember the streets and freeways being empty for a few weeks. I thought that was the tipping point -- that right then people's commuting habits were actually changing in CA and that once they changed in CA, they would change all over. And though things did change for a while, prices came back down and people started rolling their SUVS again. The change stopped. I see a bit more consciousness but not enough quick enough to really impress me. I really can't get excited about the Tesla, or be a cheerleader for Detroit. The sad truth is in the fact that Detroit has cut deals in China to spit out millions of gas powered vehicles. We are royally screwed any way we look at it. We are in for a long haul.

[Nikki Stone1]

3. I fear the worst. Then again, I live in California and am watching it.

We're in for a hellish decade at least.

[Gabi Hayes]

6. you haven't seen the half of it:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/09/20/MNOR19N2B1.DTL

$30 billion home loan time bomb set for 2010


Thousands of Bay Area homes have a ticking time bomb embedded in their mortgage. The homes were purchased with loans known as option ARMs, short for adjustable rate mortgages.


Next year, many option ARM payments will begin to readjust, slamming borrowers with dramatically higher monthly mortgage bills. Analysts say that could unleash the next big wave of foreclosures - and home-loan data show that the risky loans were heavily used in the Bay Area.

From 2004 to 2008, "one in five people who took out a mortgage loan (for both purchases and refinancing) in the San Francisco metropolitan region (San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin and San Mateo counties) got an option ARM," said Bob Visini, senior director of marketing in San Francisco at First American CoreLogic, a mortgage research firm. "That's more than twice the national average.

"People think option ARMs (will be) a national crisis," he said. "That's not really true. It's just in higher-cost areas like California where you see their prevalence."

Of the 10 metro areas nationwide with the most option ARMs, three are in the Bay Area, according to Fitch Ratings, a New York research firm. They are the East Bay counties of Alameda and Contra Costa, the South Bay area of Santa Clara and San Benito counties, and the counties of San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo.

Together, these areas account for the second-most option ARMs in the country, although they are still far behind the greater Los Angeles area (including Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino and Orange counties), according to Fitch data.

[Nikki Stone1]

7. I had heard about this.

Riverside will completely die. Good Lord. You know they are talking about closing UC RIverside. I hope it's only talk, but I've heard that it is being contemplated. I wish Professor Mike C. were on the board today. He knows a lot more about the university stuff than I do.

[WCGreen]

35. It depends on what the ARM is based on..

If is the ten year bond plus four, that would be a 7.25%...

If all depends what the ARM is tied too.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

5. There is a weird fervor in the marketplace...

(South Bay Los Angeles) to me it seems that there is a rush to "go shopping" before the final realization sets in. It is eerie, and more than a tad disturbing.

[Nikki Stone1]

8. What are they buying?

South Bay near the coast or in Torrance area?

[HCE SuiGeneris]

12. Torrance

Del Amo mall will be deserted one day and absolutely mobbed on another. Clothes seem to be the biggest items... but the restaurants are filled as well. It is incongruous when measured against the ever increasing empty commercial spaces lining Hawthorne Blvd.

[Nikki Stone1]

42. Geez, Del Amo is huge.

I used to work in Torrance about 16 years ago. I got lost trying to find my way around the shopping there.

I can understand clothes, especially basics. IF you think you aren't going to be able to buy things for awhile, you get jeans, suits, the stuff you need every day. And I know that lots of stores (like Mervyns) went out of business and those clearance sales were big. Macy's is having trouble and they keep sending me coupons, but I can't afford their stuff right now.

Restaurants I don't get. Are these pricey places?

[HCE SuiGeneris]

16. Also saw the same in Phoenix (Gilbert) area at the SanTan mall

last week.

[Nikki Stone1]

43. Were there clearance sales?

It sounds like people are stocking up.

[Taitertots]

9. I'm in the Detroit metro area

I don't know how much worse things can get before the city implodes. We are over 20% unemployment. People are sustenance farming in the rubble of a thriving metropolis.

[Nikki Stone1]

10. Kinda makes Michelle Obama's garden seem like a slap in the face

Maybe not. I like Michelle. I just wonder if they get it.

[Taitertots]

40. I don't fully understand what you are talking about

Michelle's garden is an example of what more people should be doing.

People sustenance farming in the rubble of our once great cities is totally different.

[Nikki Stone1]

45. Sorry, my bad.

Can you explain what they are doing?

[Taitertots]

59. What who are doing

The people sustenance farming because they can't find work. The city has self destructed. It is not a good thing when people are so desperate that they have to turn our once great cities into farms.

People working and tending gardens in their backyards is a good thing. People turing cities into farms because they need to eat is terrible.

[Nikki Stone1]

62. Got it. I didn't mean to be insensitive.

I just felt that when people are forced into subsistence farming to survive, a well-to-do First Lady making a garden might not be well received. It might seem patronizing to them. I think Michelle's garden is a good idea too.

[Taitertots]

68. It didn't ruffle my feathers

I think most people don't connect the two events, or at least I haven't heard anyone.

Usually it is more like "they gave bankers trillions for destroying the economy and we can't get a few billion to save Detroit from the banksters."

[Nikki Stone1]

71. Yeah, I can see that. They took all we had and they left us for dead.

It's government of the bankers, by the bankers and for the bankers.

[Taitertots]

73. Wall Street before Woodward

God forbid they spend the money needed to turn Detroit back into a functioning city. Everyone has this feeling of just being left behind.

[Nikki Stone1]

77. Even worse: the milionaires are leaving states with taxes

http://www.poststar.com/articles/2009/09/27/news/local/doc4ac01221ef21c456746539.txt

States tax the rich at their peril
By MICHAEL GORMLEY
Associated Press
Updated: Sunday, September 27, 2009 9:38 PM EDT



ALBANY - This year, New York’s deep-pocketed rich were required to dig even deeper to help shore up state finances.

They now pay higher taxes on their income and on limousines and yachts, more to enter a horse in a race and more to dabble in real estate. Meanwhile, many are losing millions from the closing of business tax loopholes and those making over $1 million are losing tax deductions others get.

It even costs more to hunt foxes or pheasants and have their taxes prepared.

Now, a half-dozen states in this recession-driven movement are nervously eyeing New York to see if it’s wise to demand so much from people rich enough to have a second home in less taxing states — and for whom a change of address can be its own tax break.

Early data from New York show the higher tax rates for the wealthy have yielded lower-than-expected state wealth. Gov. David Paterson, who had always warned targeting the rich could backfire, fears that’s just what happened.

Paterson said last week that revenues from the income tax increases and other taxes enacted in April are running about 20 percent less than anticipated.

The concern about millionaire flight has prompted some states, including New York, New Jersey and California, to increase the highest tax rates only temporarily. For New York, it’s the second temporary increase for high earners since 2001.

The first one ended as scheduled after three years. But Paterson and economists warn that came as the economy began to grow fast into another boom, something that isn’t expected now because Wall Street — which historically provided 20 percent of state revenues — is perhaps permanently downsized.

"People aren’t wedded to a geographic place as they once were. It’s a different world," said New York Lt. Gov. Richard Ravitch. He said last year’s surcharge on income taxes, set to last three years, won’t likely meet expectations.

So far this year, half of about $1 billion in expected revenue from New York’s 100 richest taxpayers is missing. The state budget office says losses suffered in the recession could be largely to blame, and it may still come in next year when filers exhaust their extensions.

Those seeking extensions nevertheless had to pay in April at least as much as they owed in 2008. The six-month extension for the balance ends in October, but given the hard times many filers likely didn’t earn much more than a year ago.

State officials say they don’t know how much of the missing revenue is because any wealthy New Yorkers simply left.

But at least two high-profile defectors have sounded off on the tax changes: Buffalo Sabres owner Tom Golisano, the billionaire who ran for governor three times and who was paying $13,000 a day in New York income taxes, and radio talk-show host Rush Limbaugh. Golisano changed his official address to Florida, and Limbaugh, who also has a Florida home, announced earlier this year that he was relinquishing his home in Manhattan.

Donald Trump told Fox News earlier this year that several of his millionaire friends were talking about leaving the state over the latest taxes.

Golisano, who created 5,000 jobs from his Rochester payroll processing company, Paychex, bristled when politicians said he was bailing on New York in the spring.

"If anything, New York state has bailed out on us," he said....

[Hannah Bell]

84. I'd take it with a grain of salt. See if trump leaves. It's not the super-rich,

it's the upper-middle who can no longer afford their bubble-inflated prior lifestyle.

[AllentownJake]

11. The banks are playing all kinds of speculative games right now

Derivative trading is up 43% from what was being done in 2008. They are going to crash the car again, very soon.

[Nikki Stone1]

46. Oh God....

They only have one strategy it seems.

[AllentownJake]

70. You aren't going to meet earnings expectations

by investing in businesses and waiting for them to turn a profit.

[Odin2005]

13. Read the whole thing. That is frightening.

This is like a fucking tangled knot! :(

[AllentownJake]

14. 30 years of taking all your wealth creating industries

and allowing them to be shipped overseas while you run a massive trade deficit and take all your brightest minds and move them into financial services will do that to a country.

[Odin2005]

15. Yep.

It's 1930 all over again. "look, things are recove... OOPS, never mind..."

[Nikki Stone1]

48. I never understood the logic of that.

I do get the TPTB wanted this global financial empire, but you need some industry to back stuff up.

[AllentownJake]

54. I think we put a little bit too much faith in an organized plan

and not people with money chasing more money and reacting in anyway they can to get more money.

I honestly don't think they are smarter than anyone else, they just have assets to do more things.

For God's sake the Republican PTB trotted out Sara Palin to the nation and tried to sell that shit.

[Nikki Stone1]

55. I remember hearing "People in a rigged game get stupid"

And I think that does sum things up nicely. The problem is it will be the death of the rest of us.

[AllentownJake]

58. It's the nature of humanity

Take a look at the Roman Empire. After Augustus, were any of those guys really bright or were they just idiots who got the throne.

We got to this stage when we ended the high taxation rates. High taxation ensured they had to be smarter with the money they had left over to make more money and stay rich. Now they can amass a fortune in a few years, run a company into the ground, and than go buy a football team.

Most of these people got to where they are by luck or by birth or a combination of both.

[Nikki Stone1]

60. True. People forget that the highest tax bracket used to be 90%

During the Eisenhower administration. Is it any wonder why the government is broke and Rush Limbaugh is buying a football team?

I think you are right that we are looking at the children of the people who made the wealth. They have always gotten things handed to them by their parents and they get their panties in a bunch when government won't do the same thing. So they bought enough people to MAKE government give them money that they "made" by the sweat of their workers' brows, so to speak. And like little spoiled rich kids, they think they deserve it and that the poor are somehow less human than they are. These also were the spoiled kids who didn't go to war, so sending other kids to hellholes around the world is no biggie for them either.

[AllentownJake]

65. I'm not really that worried as long as I survive the next 4 years

Their parents lived through the 1930s and could remember how close it came to there being a total revolution in this country. The kids are about to get the same lesson. Hopefully we have an FDR who can restore some semblance of a balance.

Government was no less bought in 1930 than it is in 2009.

[Nikki Stone1]

72. Thank you for cheering me up.

:) I appreciate it.

[Odin2005]

76. "Organized plans" always fail, ALWAYS.

The law of unintended consequences always comes to bite you in the ass. And in any case I think it's too easy to overestimate how in-lockstep the rich are, they are not the Borg, there is no big, over-arching conspiracy, just the intoxication of power and wealth.

[nadinbrzezinski]

17. Not ready to call it a depression YET... NEBR and all that

but... he makes the case very well as to why we will NEED a second stimulus packet and I hope Obama learned from this one. DO NOT ask Republicans, JUST DO IT, and do it well.

[Nikki Stone1]

18. Take a look at the summary from the article:

So to recap:

1. A depression was borne out of high levels of private sector debt, the unsustainability of which became apparent after a financial crisis.
2. The effects of this depression have been lessened by economic stimulus and government support.
3. Government intervention led to a reduction in asset price declines, which led to stock market increases, which led to asset price stabilization and more stock market increases and eventually to asset price increases. This has led to a false sense that green shoots are leading to a sustainable recovery.
4. In reality, the problems of high debt levels in the private sector and an undercapitalized financial system are still lurking, waiting for the government to withdraw its economic support to become realized
5. Because large scale government deficit spending is politically impossible, expect a second economic dip within three to four years at the latest.

Why is government spending necessary?

The government plays a crucial role here because of the huge private sector indebtedness. In the U.S. and the U.K., the public sector is not nearly as indebted. So while, the private sector rebuilds its savings and reduces debt, the public sector must pick up the slack. Why do I say must? It’s because of an accounting identity which comes from the financial sector balances model...

o, what does this mean for the American and global economy?

1. The private sector (particularly households) is overly indebted. The level of debt households now carry cannot be supported by income at the present levels of consumption. The natural tendency, therefore, is toward more saving and less spending in the private sector (although asset price appreciation can attenuate this through the Wealth Effect). That necessarily means the public sector must run a deficit or the import-export sector must run a surplus.
2. Most countries are in a state of economic weakness. That means consumption demand is constrained globally. There is no chance that the U.S. can export its way out of recession without a collapse in the value of the U.S. dollar. That leaves the government as the sole way to pick up the slack.
3. Since state and local governments are constrained by falling tax revenue (see WSJ article) and the inability to print money, only the Federal Government can run large deficits.
4. Deficit spending on this scale is politically unacceptable and will come to an end as soon as the economy shows any signs of life (say 2 to 3% growth for one year). Therefore, at the first sign of economic strength, the Federal Government will raise taxes and/or cut spending. The result will be a deep recession with higher unemployment and lower stock prices.
5. Meanwhile, all countries which issue the vast majority of debt in their own currency (U.S, Eurozone, U.K., Switzerland, Japan) will inflate. They will print as much money as they can reasonably get away with. While the economy is in an upswing, this will create a false boom, predicated on asset price increases. This will be a huge bonus for hard assets like gold, platinum or silver. However, when the prop of government spending is taken away, the global economy will relapse into recession.
6. As a result there will be a Scylla and Charybdis of inflationary and deflationary forces, which will force the hands of central bankers in adding and withdrawing liquidity. Add in the likely volatility in government spending and taxation and you have the makings of a depression shaped like a series of W’s consisting of short and uneven business cycles. The secular force is the D-process and the deleveraging, so I expect deflation to be the resulting secular trend more than inflation.
7. Needless to say, this kind of volatility will induce a wave of populist sentiment, leading to an unpredictable and violent geopolitical climate and the likelihood of more muscular forms of government.
8. From an investing standpoint, consider this a secular bear market for stocks then. Play the rallies, but be cognizant that the secular trend for the time being is down. The Japanese example which we are now tracking is a best case scenario.

[nadinbrzezinski]

20. Yeah but a depression is also defined by the GNP

contraction. We are not there yet. Now many of us saw those patterns and the SIMILARITIES with the 1920s... but on technical reasons we are not there yet.

Now as to following a true Keynseian program... preaching to the choir... I know we need it. I mean a real one.

[Nikki Stone1]

63. I would agree with you if I believed the government's numbers anymore.

I haven't believed them since Bush magically made negative numbers disappear.

[AllentownJake]

19. In my honest opinion

A second stimulus package is not going to be the answer. All it will do is funnel money into a dying economy. We are in for a 10 year reformation of our economy.

He should take all his energy and political capital into re-regulating Wall Street.

All of the wealth that is left in the nation is being tied up by speculative bankers. Derivative trading is up 43% from 2008. If he can kill the speculators and hedge funds, investments will return to more stable and productive industries.

[Nikki Stone1]

21. I wish he were able to do that, I'd vote him in for 8 terms

I just don't think he can. He's got Geitner and Summers at his sides. It just ain't gonna happen.

[AllentownJake]

23. The other scenario I imagine

Is the bankers crash the system a second time. With Geithner, Bernake, and Summers at the helm I imagine that a second crash is highly likely.

If this happens, we need to do all we can to prevent the release of the TARP money or a second bailout.

[Nikki Stone1]

30. AMEN! And that is my fear

the second crash. With the second housing bubble set to erupt next year.

[AllentownJake]

32. I used to investigate fraud

The first housing crisis was the shit that was written when the fraud started. The stuff that is going to blow up in late 2009 and 2010 is the shit that was written at the end.

At the end of any fraud, the people committing the fraud do the craziest dumbest thing before they get caught. It is a mixture of being absolutely bold because they haven't gotten caught yet, and trying to cash as much out before the fraud is discovered.

[Odin2005]

39. Hence my references to the 1930 "upturn".

[Nikki Stone1]

49. Do you think they will actually get "discovered"?

My fear is that they are running our government.

[AllentownJake]

53. You can't hide people not paying their mortgages

Whether or not there are consequences for the fraud or not is an entirely different topic.

[Nikki Stone1]

56. But you can hide the people who built the bubble

even in plain sight.

[tkmorris]

25. "He's got Geitner and Summers at his sides"

I don't think that fact indicates that he can't, but rather that he doesn't want to.

[Nikki Stone1]

31. I wonder how much actual power he has.

Remember, he had no real resume going into the election. You need to be part of the pack to know how to bring them down.

[AllentownJake]

33. He's a lawyer not an economist

I'm pretty sure these guys can make a pretty good sale.

Roosevelt understood money.

[Nikki Stone1]

50. He was also one of the elite himself

He could force his own crowd to take his medicine.

[nadinbrzezinski]

22. Re-regulating wall street is part of the answer, not the only answer

and the stimulus package is needed to keep not credit from freezing, but to keep people working with roofs over house.


He cited the General Theory, I highly suggest people read the General Theory, as well as Adam Smith quite frankly...

Also it is high time people realize that the economy of 1929 was very different from the economy of 1945. The one of 1929... lets say September, had more in common with today than people realize...

[AllentownJake]

24. Big difference

Consumer debt, trade deficit, and government debt and what the basis of our economies were in 1929 and 2009.

1929 was mainly an industrial/agricultural employment base. Today we have mainly a service based economy. Not to mention the amount of assets tied up in equities in 2009 compared to 1929.

In a lot of ways we are much worse off in 2009 than we are in 1929 as far as an economic infrastructure to build out from.

Moving people out of Financial Services and into real production/development of products and innovation will go a long way into fixing our economy.

[nadinbrzezinski]

26. Check the personal debt that people acrued during the

roaring '20s... it was down right shocking. In fact, our saving rates as a nation were historically very low... almost in the negative numbers. And the banks... regulations you kid me right? We didn't have that much industry, and what we had was old...

Oh and people were living on credit, not on plastic, but on credit.

I said it before, history never quite repeats itself beat by beat, but the pattern is very similar.

[AllentownJake]

34. Agreed

For the sake of long term prosperity, the casino needs to be shut down.

There is an acceleration on any chart from 1980 to 2009 that can directly be correlated with de-regulation.

[Odin2005]

36. It's 1930 again, I'm afraid!

:scared:

[WCGreen]

47. Break up the banks and force the banks to keep mortgages for at least

three years before they can sell them on the open market.

[Odin2005]

78. Or ban them from selling them to the open market all together.

Screw all this financial "innovation", just more slot machines for speculators.

[Odin2005]

27. We need to invest massively in the real economy.

Biotech, Nanotech, Green Manufacturing, etc.

[nadinbrzezinski]

29. Don't forget infrastructure

but yes...

[Odin2005]

37. That kinda goes without sayin'.

:P

[Odin2005]

38. DUpe

[invictus]

28. K&R

[femrap]

41. Someone told me today...

'Beans, bullets, and band-aids.' That is what one should be shopping for these days. Lots of canned food or dehydrated foods. And any medical supplies that one needs....aspirin, vitamins, etc.

I would be stocking up THIS MONTH. October is notoriously bad for Wall Street.

This is going to be something we've never seen before. Get prepared....and if nothing happens, you'll have food to share with the hungry.

My gut tells me a big shit is headed toward that very large fan.

Take care.

[AllentownJake]

51. My bet is after Christmas

Most retailers live or die by Christmas. If there is a bad Christmas for everyone but Wal-Mart. I expect to see a big crash.

[femrap]

80. I don't think 'they' can hold

back the mess of derivatives, commercial real estate bankruptcy, the FDIC requiring funds, etc.

I believe this Xmas will be like no other. We'll have to enjoy each other's company instead of material gifts.

Maybe that's not so bad.

[Nikki Stone1]

52. I need beans anyway, so I'll take your advice

and aspirin too

[femrap]

79. Can't hurt to be prepared.....nt

[Name removed]

57. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[treestar]

61. We can't sit around indulging in negativity

This is BS. How is there a depression? And someone is always doom and glooming about the economy. Who benefits from trying to scare us on that front?

[AllentownJake]

66. If you fail to take an honest look at problems

You will never have an honest solution to them.

[FirstLight]

64. wow...very interesting and powerful article.

I no nohing about finance, ahve lived in poverty my entire adult life has led me to be pretty detached from what an interest rate for a mortgage is , and my credit is nonexistent...
but I actually understood this article pretty well...and it is not pretty!

is it possible or even probable that another crash will cause us to restructure the entire system into something else? will banks cease to exist in the same way and will wall st be regulated into extinction? could we as a prople decide to do it differently? or is it so ingrained in our psyche that we will never have another structure than this - and we are doomed to bubble & bust for eternity?

hmmm...I wonder...where are the intuitive economists to redesign this sinking ship?

[AllentownJake]

67. Psyche's have a way to change

The prevailing wisdom of the age 100 years ago was that the Earth was created magically. Human slavery was once deemed an acceptable practice 170 years ago, public executions were common up to 125 years ago.

For all my doom and gloom I'm hopeful about things in 10 years.

[FirstLight]

69. I think we ARE shifting our thinking faster these days, for sure

...I hope we can begin to envision a "new economics"... based on more localized goods & svcs, locally grown food, and bartering! (hehe...my version of wampum trading!)

[BR_Parkway]

88. Maybe we should rethink that public execution part - look what the Chinese

do when their CEO's take advantage of the public.

[Initech]

74. Great Depression 2: Electric Boogaloo

[Nikki Stone1]

82. ?

Just wondering about the reference.

[Confusious]

87. Breakin' 2: Electric Boogaloo

I'm old enough to remember that fad.

[Confusious]

86. I'm a Sci Fi fan myself

Great Depression 2: The wrath of khan


Khan: I've done far worse than kill you... I've hurt you. And I wish to go on... hurting you. I shall leave you as you left me, as you left her... marooned for all eternity in the center of a dead planet... buried alive... buried alive...
Kirk: KHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAANNNNNNNNNNNN!!!

[ElsewheresDaughter]

75. Indeed and we are heading into "The Greater Depression"

[lovuian]

81. yep this will be worse than the Great depression

far worse

[Nikki Stone1]

83. And it will probably be worse here than in Europe.

:(

[Confusious]

85. Economists have no fucking clue as to what is going on

If they did, 80% would agree. You don't hear physicists talking about the 9 models of the atom.

economics is number voodoo with alot of big words to make them sound important.

P.S. They kept saying "It' a recession, it's a recession" the workers were saying "you have to be fucking kidding me, this is a depression"

[Nikki Stone1]

90. Economics is a social science, not a math or natural science.

The social sciences are notoriously wrong on many things.

[OnceUponTimeOnTheNet]

89. K&R

[mdmc]

91. --

[TexasObserver]

92. More silly alarmist nonsense. We're in a recovery.

Unfortunately, many wrongly think that "being in a recovery" should mean "already recovered."

Frankly, only people who don't know beans about history or economics are running around yelling the sky is falling.