Let's say there's some major disruptions

[gristy]

I don't want to speculate on the possibilities, but let's say these "disruptions", perhaps including (but not limited to) a major curtailing of global oil shipments, are enough to send the global (and the U.S.) economy into a steep downward spiral. Now my questions:

1. What will day-to-day life in the U.S. be like?
2. Besides money, what will be the differentiating factors between those severely impacted and those who can get by?

As the doom and gloom spreads here, in the MSM (to a limited extent), and in my own mind (to a greater extent), I just keep wondering "what should I be doing now to get ready for a worst-case scenario?"

I'm looking for ideas, folks!

[frogcycle]

1. well, you could start by

buying duct tape and plastic wrap

oh, no, wait, that was for the previous scare tactic

[twylatharp]

2. lol.eom

[demnan]

3. Get out there and meet other progressives

form a community in your area - protest, work with each other. Fear like you are feeling comes from a sense of complete isolation. So get out in your community and work through it. Supportive friends are closer than you think.

[lectrobyte]

4. Some suggestions at this link

http://www.energybulletin.net/24399.html

[drthais]

5. ...here you go

...from Orion
an article entitled ' Making Other Arrangements'
a MUST read

http://www.orionmagazine.org/pages/om/07-1om/Kunstler.html

[gristy]

7. Good article - thanks for the link

Here's the last paragraph:

It's a daunting agenda, all right. And some of you are probably wondering how you are supposed to remain hopeful in the face of these enormous tasks. Here's the plain truth, folks: Hope is not a consumer product. You have to generate your own hope. You do that by demonstrating to yourself that you are brave enough to face reality and competent enough to deal with the circumstances that it presents. How we will manage to uphold a decent society in the face of extraordinary change will depend on our creativity, our generosity, and our kindness, and I am confident that we can find these resources within our own hearts, and collectively in our communities.

[MethuenProgressive]

6. Famine - fertilizers are a petroleum product

Petroleum is used for much more than fuel to run cars and heat homes.

[spag68]

10. fertilizers

Much of the stuff is still derived from coal, not oil. When the coal is heated in an oven to make coke, the gases driven off are captured and one of them is processed into anhydrous ammonia. The ovens in Clairton Pa. made 1mil. a day net profit just on the anhydrous, along with about 200 other chemicals. That was in the 70s, so no telling what it is today. The steel company's used to just wash that stuff into our rivers until they found the profit potential in it.

[Strelnikov_]

8. Move to a small to medium sized town in the midwest

or maybe western Oregon, Washington. Main criteria is a food producing region.

If we learned anything from New Orleans, it is that large population centers will be a problem.

You did ask about "worst-case" after all. Anything less would be a soft sell.


Or, you can choose to make your stand where you are. Prepare for a 10 gal/mo. gas ration (~80% gas, or 7.4 Mbbl/dy petroleum, reduction). Maintain, or be in a position to acquire in short order, a six month supply of food.


If they engage Iran, and if it gets out of control, we would be looking at 45% of the worlds 2005 petroleum export market going offline. Think we will still be able to import that 12.4 Mbbl/dy of SUV go-juice with the Chinese, Indians, Japanese, South Koreans, Germans, French etc. all using those dollars they have accumulated to bid against us in what remains of the export market.

Basically, loss of probably 50% of our petroleum supply as we are outbid on the world market. Further, as dollars are no longer recycled back into the economy from overseas, since we produce little to trade for said oil, economic collapse. Russia has always wanted an aircraft carrier, maybe they would trade oil for a few used ones, like the Raygun?

On the plus side, we still produce a lot of oil (40%, or 8.3 Mbbl/dy, almost as much as Russia) domestically. We won't starve. But with a 10 gal/mo gasoline ration, I think SUV sales will be down.

++++

Open war in the Persian Gulf region could eliminate 18.7 Mbbl/dy, or 45% of the worlds 2005 petroleum export market.

Overnight, for all practical purposes.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oiltrade.html

All in Mbbl/dy


Top World Oil Net Exporters, 2005

Saudi Arabia 9.1
Russia 6.7
Norway 2.7
Iran 2.6
United Arab Emirates 2.4
Nigeria 2.3
Kuwait 2.3
Venezuela 2.2
Algeria 1.8
Mexico 1.7
Libya 1.5
Iraq 1.3
Angola 1.2
Kazakhstan 1.1
Qatar 1.0

=====

Above represents 39.9 Mbbl/dy of 42 Mbbl/dy world export market

18.7 Mbbl/dy of above in Persian Gulf region

[spag68]

11. My motercycle gets 45 mpg, so I still would get 450 miles.

[lonestarnot]

9. Horse and buggy, garden, eek bleak