Who knows what we should do in Afghanistan?

[Vattel]

I have benefitted greatly from posts about Afghanistan by various DUers (e.g., Bigtree). I have spoken with well-informed and intelligent Afghans about the situation there. I have read magazine and newspaper articles about the insurgency and the U.S. war effort there. Based on the information I have gathered, I am currently against the escalation; but my position is very tentative because, inspite of my efforts to become better-informed, I simply do not know enough about the situation in Afghanistan to make even an educated guess about what policy would have the best outcome. For me the following three questions are especially important:

1. Roughly how likely is it that pursuing Obama's strategy will substantially weaken extremist elements in Afghanistan and Pakistan?

2. Roughly how many lives will be lost and how much money will be spent in pursuing Obama's strategy?

3. Are there alternative approaches that would be less costly or more likely to substantially weaken extremist elements in Afghanistan and Pakistan?

I have no idea what the answer to these questions might be. I hope Obama does.

Many anti-war arguments predict failure, but offer little or no evidence other than weak anologies to other failed war efforts in Afghanistan, or to the Vietnam War. (Obama rightly pointed out that the insurgency in Afghanistan is vastly less popular than the Viet Cong insurgency during the Vietnam War.) Many pro-war arguments emphasize the importance of our goals in Afghanistan, but offer no evidence that those goals can be achieved at a reasonable cost through American military and economic aid. Obama raised the issue of whether his goals could be achieved, but offered no evidence that they could. He also claimed that the escalation was essential to national security, but offered no evidence in defense of that claim. Predicting the future isn't easy. Personally, I have a hard time being dogmatic about whether to continue to pursue war in Afghanistan because I can't predict the consequences of continuing to pursue war there. I need more evidence!

[aquart]

1. Afghanistan has near neighbors who will deal with it.

We have been a great saving in lives and money to them. And the Russians haven't stopped laughing yet.

[L0oniX]

2. Get out of Islamist countries.

[midnight]

3. Tell the 100 bad men to come and collect a million dollars if they set up

a health care clinic for the poor....

[roamer65]

4. We haven't seen anything yet.

This surge is going to drive more Taliban into Pakistan, further destabilizing it and more than likely starting a Pakistani civil war. India will not stand idly by as the Taliban overrun Islamabad.

[Vattel]

6. That's a scary possibility.

Why do you think it is likely that the larger Taliban presence in Pakistan will be able to defeat the rather formidable Pakistan army supported by the U.S.?

[roamer65]

8. No comment.

[damntexdem]

5. No one. Obama has taken his best guess.

I have a strong feeling that it will prove wrong, but I'm willing to give him time to try.

[Vattel]

7. I appreciate the sentiment.

A lot of people doubted Clinton's plan for Bosnia and were pleasantly surprised by how well it went. I hope Obama is doing more than guessing. For the costs of what he is doing are large and certain. If the benefits are too speculative, it doesn't look like a good investment.

[eridani]

10. Ethnic cleansing of Serbs from the Krajina with the aid of US mercenaries was great

Some ethnic cleansings are good, and some are bad. Depends on how they fit into the imperial plans.

[Swede]

9. Have you read this document yet?

http://www.understandingwar.org/files/The_Talibans_Campaign_For_Kandahar.pdf