Unemployment falls to 10.0%

[AllentownJake]

Before celebrating, read the labor report.

http://www.bls.gov/

Report is up.

The key numbers to pay attention to is the U4,U5, and U6 unemployment numbers. If the U4,U5, and U6 unemployment number has fallen with the U3 number it is good news. If not, you need to think about what the U3 number falling and the other number staying the same means.

Bullshit.

[Birthmark]

1. Meaningless

You're gonna get a "drop" in unemployment when the Civilian Labor Force (the basis for the U-3 unemployment rate) shrinks by 98000; the Labor Force Participation Rate shrinks; and Not in Labor Force increases by over 290,000. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

IOW, people are being shuffled off the books and are no longer reflected in the unemployment figures.

[AllentownJake]

3. That is what you will see in the other numbers

The U3 number is the bullshit number.

If the other numbers fall with the U3 than you are gaining employment if the other numbers rise, it is bullshit.

[Birthmark]

8. Mostly agreed.

The U-6 is a better guide in this environment, but even that has shortcomings. I think the best guides when taken together are the U-6 AND the Labor Force Participation Rate(LFPR). If both of those numbers are improving, you're in good shape. But an improvement in any of the "U" numbers is meaningless with a fall in the LFPR.

[AllentownJake]

11. Here you go

Labor force status
|_____________________________________________________
| | | | | |
Civilian labor force ....| 154,912| 154,362| 154,006| 153,975| 153,877| -98
Employment ............| 140,591| 139,518| 138,864| 138,275| 138,502| 227
Unemployment ..........| 14,321| 14,844| 15,142| 15,700| 15,375| -325
Not in labor force ......| 80,547| 81,730| 82,316| 82,575| 82,866| 291
|________|________|________|________|________|________

98 thousand decrease in the labor force
227 thousand increase in employment
325 thousand decrease in unemployment
291 thousand increase in not in labor force.

So I'm guessing you are saying bullshit.

[Birthmark]

21. I'm saying...

..."possible bullshit." Anyway you slice it, it's hardly vindication of Obama's trickle down New Deal.

[jpak]

2. sorry - no DOOM for you

:D

[varelse]

4. Productivity and Costs, Third Quarter 2009, Revised

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at an 8.1 percent

Unit labor costs in nonfarm businesses fell 2.5 percent in the third
quarter of 2009, as productivity grew at a faster rate (8.1 percent) than
hourly compensation (5.4 percent).

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm

So, more people went back to work for less money? Am I reading this right?

[AllentownJake]

10. Less people doing more work for the same money

Is my interpretation.

[varelse]

29. Except that unemployment went down during the same period

or... did some more long-term unemployed people just drop out of the calculations? This report doesn't look like great news for the middle class. I wonder if people are actually looking at all of the trends before they start cheering about the recovery.

[Zynx]

5. The non-farm payrolls number is always the most important component of these reports.

If that is not growing by about 100,000 to 150,000 a month, then unemployment will probably keep ticking up. The labor force surveys use much less stable numbers and should be viewed with caution as a result. They can deviate from the non-farm employment numbers, but not for long.

[AllentownJake]

7. You know this better than I do

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Translate

[Zynx]

30. Labor force participation fell faster than payrolls, driving unemployment lower.

However, last month labor force participation rose as well, which is why we had a big jump. Exactly where labor force participation should be is a tricky proposition.

As for the report's detail, first the positives. Obviously the headline number indicating that non-farm payrolls are moving rapidly toward a rate of change of zero is positive compared to where we were. Further, if you dig into it, you'll find that temporary help hiring has risen, by 52,000 in November and this is on the heels of prior gains, which is often a first indication that some businesses on are on the verge of hiring again. With government, education, and health starting to add jobs, at least the range of industries losing jobs is diminished.

Average weekly hours are increasing, and have been for some months. This indicates that slack in the labor market is beginning to be absorbed as orders are coming in stronger, particularly in manufacturing. The index of aggregate weekly hours, or all the hours worked in the economy, actually increased for the first time in many occurrences of this report. Aggregate weekly hours actually declined by even more than payrolls as both hours and jobs were cut.

Now, the bad side. We are still losing jobs, and even if we start gaining jobs in the establishment survey soon, the natural growth of the labor force will more than eat them up in the early stages. The diffusion index, which assesses the number of industries hiring versus those shedding jobs on net, is still quite negative. Manufacturing and construction continue to trail the rest of the economy.

As for the issue regarding what we're looking at in the surveys, it's important to note that the establishment survey is not related to the household survey. They are taken separately. The payroll survey is attempting to ascertain the total count of payroll positions out there. The household survey is attempting to measure labor utilization rates, assessing the desire of the population to work, how age, race, and sex impact employment, and many other things. It is a much smaller survey and is much more volatile. Many of its calculations are imputed when data is not present or is choppy. As it is a separate survey and is volatile, it is very expected that as we move toward more ambiguous payroll declines (i.e. flat or even slightly positive) the direction of unemployment will be harder to predict.

What we did see in this survey is that every measure of unemployment turned down. They all tend to move together, though to different magnitudes. What would be disturbing is if payroll jobs were being added, U3 was declining, but U6 stayed up. This would indicate that all of the jobs being added were part time or temporary. This would be disturbing. The first thing we should watch for because it is the most determinative of what will happen over time in unemployment is the establishment survey of payrolls. Until that starts increasing, the other numbers can be as noisy as they want, but the story of rising unemployment in all categories remains the same.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

32. Thank you! That was more than helpful.

:toast:

[Zynx]

34. A lot of government data is hard to understand. This is the most complicated report

outside of GDP. GDP is a deceptive number because it appears to be simple. In truth, it is not.

[AllentownJake]

6. Now things make perfect sense

"Employment fell in construction, manufacturing, and information, while temporary help service and health care added jobs."

[madrchsod]

9. the bearing plant my brother in law works at axed 16 people yesterday

someone decided to buy shitty bearings from china. last year they scrapped several tons of chinese bearings because there was no way to assure their quality. good thing the new management learned from the past :sarcasm:

[Noseyaboutpollution]

12. Same here with brake rotors

Tried Chinese train brake rotors, they were cracking

[Kahuna]

13. Can't be! The DU Doom and Gloom Squad won't like this, one little bit.

:scared:

[AllentownJake]

16. Read the report

and say something intelligent.

[Kahuna]

19. You first. nt

[HughMoran]

14. This is terrible news!!!11!!

I love you Jake :hug:

Hey, wasn't the Pres in your town yesterday?

[AllentownJake]

15. Today

[HughMoran]

17. Give him a hug for me

;)

[AllentownJake]

20. I gave my ticket option

To someone who would enjoy it.

[kid a]

22. I really pictured you at the head of the line. I would have been.

With your deep seeded hatred and daily angst, a good idea would have been to try to get a letter to him, protest on the street corner, or actually try to be involved with the event in some way.

You really aren't changing minds, helping ANY situation, or doing service here - other than constant venting, ranting, and churlish remarks.

[AllentownJake]

25. He doesn't listen to Paul Volker or Paul Krugman

Why would he listen to a short unemployed accountant from Allentown?

[theophilus]

18. Please thank the President for the great job he is doing. n/t

[Hidden Stillness]

23. They Have Worked the Unemployment FIGURES Down; Fuck the Unemployed PEOPLE

I have explained this before on a few other threads, but DU doesn't care, so here it is again. I live in the economically devastated State of Michigan, and if you think that people here do not know we are sinking into Depression, then you should just go back to telling yourself that Obama appointing Rahm Emanuel, Lawrence Summers, Timothy Geithner, Tom Daschle, and all the rest, and keeping Bernancke, is really not any kind of a bad sign of anything at all; it certainly is never Obama's fault. Obama doesn't realize anything.

The explanation: Michigan's Department of Energy, Labor and Economic Growth gave our revised (upward) unemployment figures a few months ago, worsened since with new layoffs and absolutely no hiring--we have a net loss of jobs--as 22.3% unemployment; actual figure. Obama's U.S. Dept. of Labor then changed the way the number will be calculated by giving a fake reduced number for our total workforce, or the total number of people seeking work, graduating each year, etc. They falsely dropped the total number down, based on nothing, and so the "employed" figure is a larger percentage of that fake "total pool"! ("Why Michigan's Unemployment Rate Could Be Worse," by Liz Wolgemuth, Sept. 21, at usnews.com.) They also falsely claimed that the cost of living sent down--an outrageous claim--so they can cut the Social Security yearly cost-of-living increase, which not even Bush dared to try.

Unemployment is high and going up, this Administration, full of corporate fuckheads, is not going to deal with it, and so many (I assume, not in the Midwest) on DU do not care. Yay, O-ba-ma!

[dana_b]

24. a lot of us do care

and realize that the numbers are b.s. It's horrifying that this administration doesn't seem to.

[tonysam]

26. It is the same out here in Nevada, which is right close to Michigan in unemployment

There is very little hiring outside of medical. People are moving from northern Nevada, where I live, in droves. I constantly see moving vans in my neighborhood, and not all of these people are moving across town, either. It is difficult for me to fill out my weekly certification form for state extended UI which has spaces for six jobs a week, and I am applying for just about any kind of menial job. These jobs get literally hundreds of applicants. It used to be Nevada in general, and Washoe County in particular, was immune to recessions, but not now. What I see in Reno is far worse than what I saw in southern Oregon in the early 1980s, when the last major recession hit.

What a lot of posters in DU are doing is cheering anything Obama does, although he has indicated he will do little about job creation. We need jobs in this economy, not hero worship.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. I Blame Capitalsm Not Obama

Not that I think there are palatable alternatives to capitalism.

Oh, and U-6 which includes the underemployed and discouraged workers dropped to 17.2% but that's still a horrific number.

I wish I would have joined the military now so I could be retired with a nice pension instead of spending my life's savingsto stay afloat.

[Xenotime]

28. This is progress. Good for Obama.

[Thickasabrick]

31. What's up with the the +291,000 not in work force number change?

Is this a seasonal anomaly? I guess I'm having trouble seeing how that is good.

[Zynx]

33. That is from the household survey. They survey about 35,000 households and extrapolate

that onto the rest of the labor market. The non-participation rate varies tremendously from month to month.