Job market shows big improvement

[usregimechange]

(CNN).

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The long-suffering U.S. jobs market improved significantly in November, as employers trimmed the fewest jobs of any month since the start of the recession, and the unemployment rate posted the biggest one-month decline in more than three years.

U.S. payrolls slipped 11,000 jobs in the month, far below any of the job losses posted over the last 23 months. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a loss of 125,000 jobs in November.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/12/04/news/economy/jobs_november/index.htm


:fistbump:

[Rosa Luxemburg]

1. remind people about Bush's job losses (Bush was in control in 2007)

[usregimechange]

2. and has been improving ever since Obama took office

[treestar]

4. Yes, that graph shows that part clearly

People are more upbeat knowing that the Chimp is gone.

[usregimechange]

34. the people of the world...

[dmallind]

5. Certainly - but the jobs lag on both ends

I know people get frustrated at been reminded that job recoveries lag GDP and market recoveries, but it's worth pointing out the corollary too. Despite the doomer insistence that companies cut jobs at every opportunity, in reality job losses only really jump after several months of recession, when demand has stayed soft for a while and inventories have climbed and backlog has been purged. The recesiion started in Dec 07, and is definitely Bush's to own. Job losses only got dramatic in mid to late 08. Still Bush's term of course, but the lag makes the really horrible numbers fall into Obama's.

[Lochloosa]

11. Good idea Rosa. Put the graph next to the OP's graph

[HughBeaumont]

22. Ah, the inevitable result of Randian/Friedman Stenchonomics.

Unbridled Wild West Corporatism failed us.

And in case anyone thinks this crap job market is a new thing . . . it's been lousy for nearly a DECADE now.

[usregimechange]

3. kick

[NJmaverick]

6. Thanks for the graphic, this is certainly a case where a picture is worth a thousand words

[tonysam]

7. It doesn't mean crap as long as 15 million are chasing too few jobs

Obama is doing very little about job creation.

[quiet.american]

9. Right on cue. Nonsense. nt

[usregimechange]

10. That doesn't appear to be the case

[tonysam]

12. Sorry, but it does. There is NO job creation, just a stemming

of job losses.

You guys are spinning yourselves into dizziness.

[redqueen]

29. Unreal. (nt)

[Lost4words]

14. Listen to the clowns, who aren't affected, saying things are better!

so far as I have seen he has done nothing for the working class. It is feeling more like BUSH's third term.

[jpak]

15. According to the CBO, Obama's Stimulus Bill created or saved 0.6-1.6 million jobs

your concern is noted

[Lost4words]

20. you believe govt numbers?

[jpak]

24. Yeah - and I ride around in a black helicopter making crop circles too

weeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!111111

:rofl:

[Lost4words]

26. boy do you have alot to learn...........

[jpak]

27. sorry - if you want to deny the data - it's your choice

the economy is improving and Obama is the one that done it

YOU have a lot to learn

:D

[blues90]

37. i would really like to know what that means.

created or saved ,What!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Oregone]

8. Here is to hoping. My company is in its death throes

:(

We are laying off a ton of people now, finally, after making this far mostly unscathed

[jpak]

13. bookmarked and the doomers can choke on that chart

thanks for posting

:thumbsup:

[Lost4words]

16. I have booked marked your post, sunny-sider!

still working correct?!

[jpak]

19. yes - still working!

:hi:

[Lost4words]

23. good for you, I hope you never know what it is like on the outside!

[jpak]

28. Believe me I have - and have little patience with whiners and Obama-bashers on this issue

see you on the "inside" soon!

:hi:

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

17. I just landed a pretty sweet job.

I don't think it's an indicator of anything, but still, hurrah!

[janx]

21. Congratulations!

:party:

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

33. Thanks. It took the better part of eight months.

Not exactly a fun eight months of my life, but then I'm better off than most in the same situation. I never wondered if I was going to be able to eat or not.

[Lost4words]

25. I am willing to bet you are 40 or under. Congrats to you!

be in early and work late!

[Better Today]

32. Ding Ding, there's the thing. Only the younger seem to be recovering

I know about 6 over 40 women, excellent accountants and admin staff who can't get positions. Two of whom lost their positions in the first place so a younger cheaper gal could be hired.

Yep, it's tough out there if looking for real employment over the age of 40.

[FarCenter]

18. Read the data -- it is not so good.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm

See the "not seasonally adjusted" data by occupation toward the end of the pdf.

[Wounded Bear]

30. So, it's getting worse at a reduced rate?

Yeah, I guess that is "good" news.

:shrug:

[redqueen]

31. We are coming out of the worst economic climate since the great depression...

so yes, that is good news.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

39. Thanks

Yes we are

[blues90]

35. It's horse shit , it's the holidays , wait and see when the shopping ends

It's such horse shit and a numbers game .

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

36. Yep! Temps are getting jobs!

I'm definitely eager to see the employers' next move. On the one hand, they can take on permanent employees, pay a good wage, and offer benefits. Or they can take advantage of desperate times, where desperate people will work for a poor wage and the employer can pay the middle man in lieu of paying benefits.

A little premature for me to party. I'll wait to see when permanent job creation catches the headlines.

Job Drought in U.S. Almost Over as Temporary Help, Hours Surge
Share Business
By Bob Willis and Shobhana Chandra

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The worst U.S. employment slump in the post-World War II era may be about to end as companies hasten to hire temporary workers and boost hours, according to economists such as John Ryding and Zach Pandl.

Employers took on 52,000 temporary workers in November, the largest increase since October 2004 and the fourth consecutive gain, the Labor Department said today. The average workweek climbed by 12 minutes, the most since March 2003.

“It is beginning to look like December could be the first month to show a positive payroll print,” Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics LLC in New York, said in a telephone interview. “Companies are running out of labor.”

Jumps in temporary help and working hours often presage the addition of permanent, full-time staff as companies grow more confident sales will be sustained. Job growth would help lift consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, and aid the recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s.

Total payrolls last month dropped by 11,000, the smallest decline since the recession began in December 2007. That was less than the 125,000 job losses anticipated, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The number of jobs lost since the recession began actually fell to 7.2 million after the government revised October and September figures to show 159,000 fewer losses than previously estimated.

Unexpected Drop

The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 10 percent from 10.2 percent in October, which was the highest in 26 years.

Pandl, an economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York, said the first gain in payrolls may come this month, beating his previous forecast of January.

“We’re at the turning point here,” Pandl said. “Firing activity is tapering off.”

Tig Gilliam, chief executive officer of Adecco Group North America, a New York-based unit of the largest temporary employer in the world, said his company began seeing a pickup in demand for temporary help in recent months.

“When the economy slows, temporary are the first to go, and when the economy begins to recover, they are the first to come back,” Gilliam said. “We’re turning the other end of the cycle.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at [e-mail] Chandra in Washington [e-mail]

Last Updated: December 4, 2009 14:00 EST

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=ank4ZC8I3r6E

[ipaint]

38. Jobs Data Divergence: Who To Believe?

But then, aside from manufacturing, the November BLS employment summary is completely incomprehensible. There is a massive discrepancy between the all-sector job losses reported by ADP and the BLS—169,000 versus 11,000. In percentage terms, this could well be the biggest ADP-BLS disagreement ever.
But it gets even more interesting. ADP reports 81,000 jobs lost in the service sector in November, while BLS reports a net gain of 56,000. Meanwhile, the ISM shows non-manufacturing employment still deep in contraction territory, at 41.6 whereas a mere break-even is 50. Who are we supposed to believe?
Moreover, according to the BLS, “the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from -219,000 to -139,000, and the change for October was revised from -190,000 to -111,000.” Again, these are almost unprecedented revisions and a massive departure from ADP numbers. Note that ADP revised its October figures by only 8000, from a decline of 203,000 to a decline of 195,000.

...We are looking at a three-month ADP-BLS net jobs divergence of roughly 230%, with ISM non-manufacturing employment still deep in contraction. Again, whom are we supposed to believe? It seems that the stats are finally coming unglued. My own hunch is that under intense political pressure, BLS created a number of service sector jobs out of thin air.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/176620-jobs-data-divergence-who-to-believe?source=article_lb_articles



While much of the focus was on the overall number, the breakdown by category was less reassuring. Those areas of the economy that would naturally be associated with a sustainable rebound in activity, including manufacturing, trade, transportation and utilities, and construction, are still hemorrhaging jobs.

Moreover, recent developments suggest that two categories which did see respectable gains, education and health care, face major headwinds in the period ahead. With municipal budgets under growing strain, school budgets -- and education-related hiring -- have nowhere to go but down. And with all eyes now focused on the rising cost of health care, the pressure to reign in spending will only increase.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-alternative-read-todays-bullish-jobs-data